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Brisbane Thunder 5, Melbourne Baseball Club 4               2046-05-04 · #1501
at Siadi Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Brisbane                5      0    5    8    0
Melbourne               4      0    4    8    0

BRISBANE THUNDER
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Bogut       c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Blundell    lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Stratford   rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Brondello   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gorry       2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Clegg   ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Buehning    ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Puhi        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Wagner  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Paniagua    3b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Bowen       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Daniels pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Webster 1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Gustavs pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Vukovic     j  ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Robinson    j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Toumi       j  ......    3   2   2   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Totals                  29   5   8   1   0   1   5   2  16   0   0  0.276
  2B: Robinson (10).
  HR: Toumi (2), off George.
  CS: Bogut (1), Blundell (1), Gorry (7).
  HBP: Bowen (2).
  a-Replaced Gorry at SS in the 7th.
  b-Grounded out for Puhi in the 6th.
  c-Ran for Bowen in the 7th.
  d-Replaced Toumi at 1B in the 6th.
  e-Ran for Webster in the 6th.

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Brondello   ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Reid    ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Yoganathan  p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.500
  b-Bogaert rf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
  c-Rios    cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Balko   1b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Tolo    ss ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Mulliga c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  g-Bhardwa 2b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  h-Irvine  c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  i-Buchano ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  j-Stott   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  k-Longley pr ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Gurriel     j  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   4   8   4   0   0   4   2  12   0   1  0.286
  2B: Bogaerts (1), Balko (7), Tolo (2), Bhardwaj (1).
  SB: Tolo (1), Stott (3).
  CS: Tolo (1).
  HBP: Balko (1), Mulligan (2).
  a-Batted for Brondello in the 5th.
  b-Entered at RF in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at CF in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at 1B in the 4th.
  e-Entered at SS in the 4th.
  f-Entered at C in the 7th.
  g-Entered at 2B in the 9th.
  h-Entered at C in the 9th.
  i-Walked for Rios in the 5th.
  j-Ran for Buchanon in the 5th.
  k-Ran for Tolo in the 5th.

BRISBANE THUNDER PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bowen (W, 1-3) ......    16   15  56%    2    2    2    2   10    0   68    -
Bannatyne ...........    11    8  30%    5    2    2    0    1    0   42  1-0
Vukona (F, 17) ......     3    4  15%    0    0    0    0    1    0    9  2-0

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Yoganathan (L, 0-3) .     6    4  15%    3    2    2    0    2    0   20    -
George ..............    15   14  52%    2    2    1    1    9    1   49  1-0
Brown ...............    10    9  33%    2    1    1    1    5    0   44  1-0

  Batting order: Melbourne Baseball Club (home) batted second; Brisbane Thunder batted first.
  Seconds: BT o26 (5-0), MBC o26 (4-5).
  First pitch 7:15 PM VLAT. Weather: 56°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Dry. seed 504510.
  Walk-Back runs: off George 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 3 Mark Robinson Devon Blundell (1B) 1–0
T 3 Anis Toumi Mark Robinson (2B) 2–0
T 15 Anis Toumi Anis Toumi (HR) 3–0
T 15 David Gorry Anis Toumi (3B) 4–0
T 19 Bruno Bogut Edwin Paniagua (2B) 5–0
B 14 Mario Balko Mustafa Longley (3B) 5–1
B 14 Mario Balko Ivan Stott (2B) 5–2
B 20 Didi Bogaerts Mustafa Longley (1B) 5–3
B 22 Kyle Mulligan Anant Bhardwaj (2B) 5–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Siadi Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 415' · RF 378' · 13' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Trolley Shed Round Bowl
Brisbane Thunder — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
386' 415' 378' Devon Blundell — single · EV 100 mph · LA -0° · 95 ft Mark Robinson — double · EV 113 mph · LA +18° · 298 ft Anis Toumi — single · EV 66 mph · LA +12° · 71 ft Edwin Paniagua — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +12° · 105 ft Marino Bowen — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +46° · 314 ft Aaron Vukovic — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -5° · 91 ft Devon Blundell — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA -18° · 95 ft Anis Toumi — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +37° · 429 ft David Gorry — single · EV 84 mph · LA +8° · 82 ft Bruno Bogut — single · EV 90 mph · LA -6° · 85 ft Aaron Vukovic — single · EV 84 mph · LA +5° · 80 ft
Melbourne Baseball Club — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 3 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
386' 415' 378' Darren Brondello — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -7° · 95 ft Sanjeev Yoganathan — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +3° · 79 ft Mario Balko — double · EV 106 mph · LA +20° · 289 ft Adam Reid — ground_out · EV 107 mph · LA -10° · 102 ft Mustafa Longley — single · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Ivan Stott — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +3° · 85 ft Ryan Tolo — double · EV 98 mph · LA +42° · 378 ft Sanjeev Yoganathan — single · EV 100 mph · LA -15° · 95 ft Kyle Mulligan — single · EV 106 mph · LA +7° · 101 ft Mustafa Longley — line_out · EV 101 mph · LA +21° · 270 ft Didi Bogaerts — double · EV 98 mph · LA +22° · 272 ft Anant Bhardwaj — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 207 ft Yunieski Gurriel — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA +16° · 211 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brisbane Thunder
14% deserve-to-win  ·  3.0 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +2.0 vs expected
contact: 9.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+1.1 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 3 CS (-2.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marino Bowen 89 / +46° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.21
Anis Toumi 106 / +37° Oppo Home Run 3.0 → 4 +0.96
Aaron Vukovic 84 / +5° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Anis Toumi 66 / +12° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Bruno Bogut 90 / -6° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.57
Melbourne Baseball Club
86% deserve-to-win  ·  7.3 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -3.3 vs expected
contact: 12.7 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-1.7 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (-0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mustafa Longley 101 / +21° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.54
Yunieski Gurriel 99 / +16° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.32
Anant Bhardwaj 100 / +16° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.73
Didi Bogaerts 98 / +22° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.68
Adam Reid 107 / -10° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.66
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