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Reds 4, Cubs 2                                              2026-08-27 · #1504
at Pino Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                 2    2    5    0
Cincinnati              4    4    4    0

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
May         c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Shurtleff   cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Segovia ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Solis       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Casey       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Maxson      2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Seol        lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Cody    ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sarkissian  rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Saprissa    3b ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Wimer       p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Lamas   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-McCullo ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Palermo pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Santana pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Conn        j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Schellenger j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Verhoeven   j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   2   5   0   0   0   1   4   8   0   0  0.185
  SB: Lamas (17).
  HBP: Cody (3).
  GIDP: Schellenger (5).
  a-Grounded out for Shurtleff in the 9th.
  b-Was hit by a pitch for Seol in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Wimer in the 3rd.
  d-Batted in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Cody in the 4th.
  f-Ran in the 6th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Núñez       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Subhash     ss ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Suarez      rf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
David       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Tsoubanos   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ribera      3b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Murakami    1b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Levy        cf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Agnew       p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   1  1.000
Totals                   7   4   4   4   0   0   4   2   1   0   1  0.571
  2B: Subhash (13), Suarez (5), Murakami (14), Agnew (4).


CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wimer (L, 3-21) .....     9    5  19%    4    4    4    2    1    0   30    -

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Agnew (W, 10-12) ....    30   26  96%    5    2    2    3    7    0  104    -
Zamora ..............     2    1   4%    0    0    0    1    1    0    9  2-0

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-5)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wimer (Outs 1-5)
CATCHER (C)       | May (Outs 1-5)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Casey (Outs 1-5)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Maxson (Outs 1-5)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saprissa (Outs 1-5)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Solis (Outs 1-5)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Seol (Outs 1-5)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Shurtleff (Outs 1-5)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sarkissian (Outs 1-5)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Agnew (Outs 1-26) → Zamora (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | David (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Ribera (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Levy (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Suarez (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted second; Cubs batted first.
  First pitch 7:05 PM CT. Weather: 81°F · Wind in · Clear · Humid. seed 343180.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.33    Peak faced 0.36
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 11 Ryan Schellenger Harold Palermo (3B) 1–0 —
T 15 Eddie Solis Víctor Lamas (3B) 2–0 —
B 2 Carter Suarez Zachary Subhash (2B) 2–1 0.24
B 2 Carter Suarez Felix Ribera (1B) 2–2 0.12
B 5 Colton Agnew Emmanuel Murakami (3B) 2–3 0.00
B 5 Colton Agnew Jackson Levy (2B) 2–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.33
Peak faced 0.36
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Cubs — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Erick May — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA -12° · 51 ft Eddie Solis — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 159 ft Douglas Casey — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 120 ft Yong-soo Seol — single · EV 66 mph · LA +23° · 123 ft Samuel Sarkissian — fielders_choice · EV 53 mph · LA -5° · 51 ft Ivan Saprissa — single · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 102 ft Brad Wimer — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +40° · 228 ft Wyatt Conn — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 171 ft Ryan Schellenger — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -19° · 72 ft Harold Palermo — single · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 168 ft Jaume Santana — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Teófilo Segovia — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 136 ft Brad Wimer — single · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft Ivan Saprissa — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 106 ft Bryce Shurtleff — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +4° · 49 ft Wyatt Conn — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +32° · 208 ft Ivan Saprissa — single · EV 80 mph · LA -2° · 76 ft Hezekiah Maxson — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
6 BIP· 0 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Bret David — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +9° · 79 ft Ed Tsoubanos — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 204 ft Zachary Subhash — double · EV 106 mph · LA +25° · 348 ft Carter Suarez — double · EV 95 mph · LA +22° · 254 ft Emmanuel Murakami — double · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 300 ft Colton Agnew — double · EV 96 mph · LA +43° · 364 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
53% deserve-to-win  ·  5.5 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -3.5 vs expected
contact: 7.0 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-2.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Wyatt Conn 92 / +15° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Teófilo Segovia 92 / +12° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Brad Wimer 76 / +0° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Ivan Saprissa 80 / -2° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Yong-soo Seol 66 / +23° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Reds
47% deserve-to-win  ·  5.1 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.1 vs expected
contact: 7.6 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+0.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Carter Suarez 95 / +22° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Ed Tsoubanos 92 / +18° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Emmanuel Murakami 100 / +24° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.67
Bret David 80 / +9° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Zachary Subhash 106 / +25° Pull Double 2.0 → 2 -0.01
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