==============================================================================
Canaries 13, Phillies 12  (1 SI)                            2026-08-28 · #1517
at Halloran Grounds
==============================================================================

                        1      S    R    H    E
New Jersey             10      3   13   16    0
Philadelphia           10      2   12   13    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Lacava      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kramer      2b ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Morriso pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kerr        rf ......    5   1   3   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.600
Richey      cf ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Campos      c  ......    5   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.200
Israel      p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
  b-Pastore ph ......    4   2   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Fishbach    lf ......    4   2   2   0   0   1   4   1   2   0   0  0.500
Hollenbeck  ss ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
  c-Navarro pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Nachand     1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Cordero pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  e-Conway  ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Savides ph ......    3   0   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.667
  g-Barron  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Woodall     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  38  13  16   5   0   1  13   7   9   0   1  0.421
  2B: Pastore 2 (16), Conway (9), Savides 2 (2).
  HR: Fishbach (9), off Sema.
  CS: Morrison (7), Kerr 2 (14).
  HBP: Nachand (5).
  a-Ran for Kramer in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Israel in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Hollenbeck in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Conway in the 6th.
  e-Doubled for Morrison in the 5th.
  f-Batted for Navarro in the 6th.
  g-Ran in the 6th.

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Andrade     c  ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.250
Awoniyi     lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Logar       1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
  a-Skeen   pr ......    3   3   2   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.667
Alvarado    3b ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Santos      2b ......    5   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.200
Israilov    rf ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Ka'apan pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Moor        cf ......    5   1   2   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.400
Martín      ss ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.250
Condron     p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Mattke  pr ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  d-Vásquez pr ......    2   2   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Borges  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.000
Anthony     j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  40  12  13   3   0   0  12   6  10   0   0  0.325
  2B: Moor (26), Condron (3), Skeen (4).
  GIDP: Alvarado (4).
  a-Ran for Logar in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Israilov in the 6th.
  c-Ran for Condron in the 3rd.
  d-Ran in the 4th.
  e-Grounded out for Vásquez in the 9th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Israel (W, 10-10) ...    29   17  113  3.9    9    9    9    6    4    0    -
Junior ..............    14   10   48  3.4    4    1    1    0    4    0  1-1
Waidner .............     3    3   10  3.3    0    2    2    0    2    0  3-2

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Condron (L, 8-3) ....    15    8   49  3.3    8    6    6    3    1    0    -
Bisgrove ............     9    7   23  2.6    2    2    2    1    3    0  1-0
Sema ................     4    2    8  2.0    2    3    3    0    1    1  1-0
Lussi ...............     7    5   21  3.0    3    2    1    1    1    0  1-1
Campaz ..............    11    8   28  2.5    1    0    0    2    3    0  2-0

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-30)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Israel (Outs 1-17) → Junior (Outs 18-27) → Waidner (Outs 28-30)
CATCHER (C)       | Campos (Outs 1-30)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Nachand (Outs 1-30)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-30)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-30)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-30)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fishbach (Outs 1-30)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Richey (Outs 1-30)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-30)

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-30)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Condron (Outs 1-8) → Bisgrove (Outs 9-15) → Sema (Outs 16-17) → Lussi (Outs 18-22) → Campaz (Outs 23-30)
CATCHER (C)       | Andrade (Outs 1-30)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Logar (Outs 1-30)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santos (Outs 1-30)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alvarado (Outs 1-30)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martín (Outs 1-30)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Awoniyi (Outs 1-30)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Moor (Outs 1-30)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Israilov (Outs 1-30)

  Batting order: Phillies (home) batted first; Canaries batted second.
  Super-innings: 1.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 94°F · Wind cross · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 318537.
  Walk-Back runs: off Lussi 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.44    Peak faced 1.71
    27 outs left: 1.22
    18 outs left: 1.33
     9 outs left: 0.67
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 4 Jahiem Moor Sandy Santos (2B) 0–1 —
B 6 Joc Condron Daniel Israilov (3B) 0–2 —
B 10 Daniel Israilov Alberto Vásquez (3B) 0–3 —
B 11 Nicolas Martín Godfrey Skeen (3B) 0–4 —
B 14 Godfrey Skeen Daniel Israilov (3B) 0–5 —
B 14 Godfrey Skeen Bryan Andrade (2B) 0–6 —
B 14 Godfrey Skeen Alberto Vásquez (1B) 0–7 —
B 20 Bryan Andrade Godfrey Skeen (2B) 0–8 —
B 26 Devron Borges Bryan Andrade (3B) 0–9 —
B 26 Devron Borges Jahiem Moor (2B) 0–10 —
T 2 Deylin Fishbach Andrea Kramer (3B) 1–10 1.44
T 2 Deylin Fishbach Jerome Kerr (2B) 2–10 1.32
T 6 Andrea Kramer Tripp Hollenbeck (2B) 3–10 1.43
T 13 Leo Conway Ramón Navarro (2B) 4–10 1.93
T 13 Leo Conway Welby Richey (1B) 5–10 1.71
T 15 Renaldo Pastore Grant Cordero (2B) 6–10 1.75
T 15 Deylin Fishbach Renaldo Pastore (2B) 7–10 1.50
T 15 Deylin Fishbach Deylin Fishbach (HR) 8–10 1.25
T 16 Welby Richey Deylin Fishbach (3B) 9–10 1.09
T 19 Jerome Kerr Welby Richey (2B) 10–10 1.12
ST 28 Renaldo Pastore Hugo Campos (1B) 11–10 —
ST 29 Julian Savides Renaldo Pastore (2B) 12–10 —
ST 29 Julian Savides Brandon Barron (1B) 13–10 —
SB 29 Jahiem Moor Godfrey Skeen (2B) 13–11 —
SB 29 Jahiem Moor Jerome Ka'apana (1B) 13–12 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.44
Peak faced 1.71
27 outs left 1.22
18 outs left 1.33
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Halloran Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 271' · CF 492' · RF 299' · 36' wall). Bathtub.
Canaries — Batted Balls
29 BIP· 10 1B · 5 XBH · 1 HR
271' 492' 299' Wall 36' Andrea Kramer — single · EV 88 mph · LA -8° · 84 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 119 mph · LA +17° · 313 ft Deylin Fishbach — single · EV 105 mph · LA +40° · 430 ft Roberto Lacava — fly_out · EV 111 mph · LA +17° · 270 ft Welby Richey — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -9° · 82 ft Levar Nachand — fly_out · EV 110 mph · LA +20° · 308 ft Renaldo Pastore — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 319 ft Leo Conway — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 185 ft Julian Savides — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +24° · 228 ft Jesse Woodall — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 170 ft Grant Cordero — single · EV 119 mph · LA +5° · 113 ft Brandon Barron — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -6° · 79 ft Andrea Kramer — single · EV 119 mph · LA +18° · 330 ft Jerome Kerr — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +22° · 219 ft Welby Richey — single · EV 110 mph · LA +32° · 438 ft Levar Nachand — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +14° · 136 ft Renaldo Pastore — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 238 ft Julian Savides — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 206 ft Grant Cordero — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +12° · 128 ft Jerome Kerr — line_out · EV 119 mph · LA +17° · 322 ft Deylin Fishbach — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +29° · 480 ft Welby Richey — single · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 190 ft Renaldo Pastore — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft Julian Savides — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 273 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 120 ft Hugo Campos — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 174 ft Renaldo Pastore — double · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 250 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 119 mph · LA +16° · 295 ft Hugo Campos — single · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft
Phillies — Batted Balls
29 BIP· 10 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
271' 492' 299' Wall 36' Bryan Andrade — line_out · EV 109 mph · LA -10° · 103 ft Bright Awoniyi — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +32° · 322 ft Derlis Alvarado — double_play · EV 87 mph · LA +3° · 83 ft Sandy Santos — single · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Jahiem Moor — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -8° · 66 ft Nicolas Martín — line_out · EV 67 mph · LA +12° · 72 ft Joc Condron — double · EV 109 mph · LA +40° · 470 ft Daniel Israilov — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 138 ft Anthony Mattke — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -1° · 74 ft Alberto Vásquez — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 133 ft Godfrey Skeen — double · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 234 ft Devron Borges — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA +17° · 107 ft Bryan Andrade — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 128 ft Bright Awoniyi — single · EV 93 mph · LA +0° · 89 ft Derlis Alvarado — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +27° · 250 ft Jahiem Moor — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 212 ft Nicolas Martín — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +15° · 144 ft Alberto Vásquez — infield_single · EV 64 mph · LA +5° · 61 ft Godfrey Skeen — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Sandy Santos — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA +25° · 168 ft Nicolas Martín — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -6° · 81 ft Bryan Andrade — single · EV 87 mph · LA -14° · 83 ft Daniel Israilov — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +36° · 218 ft Godfrey Skeen — single · EV 73 mph · LA +18° · 125 ft Derlis Alvarado — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 214 ft Jahiem Moor — single · EV 95 mph · LA +12° · 152 ft Nicolas Martín — single · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 222 ft Daniel Israilov — single · EV 86 mph · LA +12° · 119 ft Jahiem Moor — double · EV 94 mph · LA +29° · 299 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
74% deserve-to-win  ·  20.1 expected runs
actual 13 runs  ·  -7.1 vs expected
contact: 37.5 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 24.0 (-13.5 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Welby Richey 110 / +32° Pull Single 3.4 → 1 -2.38
Deylin Fishbach 105 / +40° Center Single 2.9 → 1 -1.90
Roberto Lacava 111 / +17° Pull Out 1.7 → 0 -1.72
Levar Nachand 110 / +20° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.72
Jerome Kerr 119 / +17° Oppo Out 1.7 → 0 -1.71
Phillies
26% deserve-to-win  ·  11.9 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +0.1 vs expected
contact: 18.0 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (-2.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Joc Condron 109 / +40° Pull Double 3.4 → 2 -1.38
Jahiem Moor 94 / +29° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Godfrey Skeen 92 / +22° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Bright Awoniyi 95 / +32° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Jahiem Moor 92 / +19° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →