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Padres 2, Beavers 1                                         2026-08-28 · #1516
at Saitch Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Portland                1    1    3    0
San Diego               2    2    4    0

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vahaly      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tessema     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Clement     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Turenne     rf ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Guerra      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Aktaş       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Waters      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Harper  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Holzworth   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Fuenzal ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Henríquez   p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Waston  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Streko  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Redmayne    j  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Velazquez   j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  24   1   3   1   0   0   1   3  11   0   1  0.125
  2B: Redmayne (5).
  a-Grounded out for Waters in the 7th.
  b-Batted for Holzworth in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Henríquez in the 3rd.
  d-Grounded out in the 8th.

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Lettiere    c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Omae        p  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Banuelos    3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
MacCracken  2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Salcido     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Manzano     1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Schwinger   rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Susnjar     ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Fernández   lf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  12   2   4   0   0   0   2   3   4   0   0  0.333
  GIDP: Lettiere (8), Fernández (14).


BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Henríquez (L, 10-10)     14   10   45  3.2    4    2    2    3    4    0    -

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Omae (W, 6-5) .......    27   27   85  3.1    3    1    1    3   12    0    -

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-10)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Henríquez (Outs 1-10)
CATCHER (C)       | Waters (Outs 1-10)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-10)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-10)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Aktaş (Outs 1-10)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-10)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Clement (Outs 1-10)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guerra (Outs 1-10)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Turenne (Outs 1-10)

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Omae (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Lettiere (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Manzano (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Banuelos (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Susnjar (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Salcido (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Schwinger (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Padres (home) batted second; Beavers batted first.
  First pitch 7:05 PM PT. Weather: 89°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 812230.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 0.25
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.17
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 8 Sydney Redmayne Agustín Waston (1B) 1–0 —
B 3 Cary Schwinger Takashi Omae (2B) 1–1 0.12
B 10 Ángelo Salcido Israel Fernández (3B) 1–2 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 0.25
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.17
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Saitch Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 403' · RF 371' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Beavers — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Francisco Vahaly — line_out · EV 99 mph · LA +16° · 208 ft Levar De Turenne — single · EV 75 mph · LA +7° · 71 ft Yadier Guerra — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +6° · 81 ft Sydney Redmayne — double · EV 94 mph · LA +15° · 176 ft Mekhi Streko — fielders_choice · EV 86 mph · LA -17° · 82 ft Yadier Guerra — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +5° · 94 ft Levar De Turenne — single · EV 100 mph · LA -8° · 95 ft Sydney Redmayne — fielders_choice · EV 68 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Wilmer Velazquez — fielders_choice · EV 61 mph · LA -15° · 58 ft Val Clement — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +19° · 242 ft
Padres — Batted Balls
7 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Takashi Omae — single · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Jefry Manzano — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 103 ft Cary Schwinger — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -2° · 57 ft Reed Lettiere — double_play · EV 65 mph · LA -2° · 62 ft Kreigh Susnjar — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 90 ft Israel Fernández — double_play · EV 56 mph · LA -12° · 53 ft Israel Fernández — single · EV 94 mph · LA +18° · 211 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Beavers
69% deserve-to-win  ·  3.0 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -2.0 vs expected
contact: 5.6 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-1.6 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Francisco Vahaly 99 / +16° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.23
Val Clement 98 / +19° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.23
Sydney Redmayne 94 / +15° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Levar De Turenne 75 / +7° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Levar De Turenne 100 / -8° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Padres
31% deserve-to-win  ·  2.0 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 2.4 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (+1.6 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Takashi Omae 76 / -1° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Jefry Manzano 76 / +13° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Kreigh Susnjar 76 / +11° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Cary Schwinger 60 / -2° Pull Out 0.1 → 0 -0.11
Reed Lettiere 65 / -2° Oppo Double Play 0.1 → 0 -0.11
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