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Padres 7, Beavers 1                                         2026-08-29 · #1519
at Saitch Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Portland                1    1    3    0
San Diego               7    7    7    0

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vahaly      ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Hydrick ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Turenne     lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   1  1.000
Xue         3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Tessema     2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Clement ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Guerra      cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Aktaş       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Waters      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Zamora      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Moulton     p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  c-Waston  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Rabess  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Vidal   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  22   1   3   0   0   0   1   3  10   0   1  0.136
  SB: Vidal (8).
  CS: Turenne (9), Guerra (13), Vidal 2 (4).
  HBP: Zamora (2), Moulton (3), Vidal (1).
  GIDP: Waston (3).
  a-Batted for Vahaly in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Tessema in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Moulton in the 7th.
  d-Batted for Waston in the 9th.
  e-Ran in the 6th.

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Banuelos    3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Fernánd ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Lettiere    c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Salcido     cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Andrade     1b ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
Staten      ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Gleeson ph ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Schwinger   rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
MacCracken  2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Susnjar     lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Arozarena   p  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0  0.000
Cleveland   j  ......    2   3   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  30   7   7   3   0   0   7   5  12   0   0  0.233
  2B: Andrade (8), Fernández (15), Gleeson (5).
  SB: Arozarena (1).
  CS: Lettiere (4).
  HBP: Lettiere (4).
  Squeeze: Cleveland (1 RBI).
  a-Batted for Banuelos in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Staten in the 7th.

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Moulton (L, 3-12) ...    27   20   94  3.5    6    7    7    5    6    0    -
Kamiwazumi ..........     7    7   31  4.4    0    0    0    0    6    0  2-0

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Arozarena (W, 10-5) .    28   27  100  3.6    3    1    1    3   10    0    -

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Moulton (Outs 1-20) → Kamiwazumi (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Waters (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Aktaş (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Xue (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Turenne (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guerra (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Zamora (Outs 1-27)

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Arozarena (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Lettiere (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Banuelos (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Staten (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Susnjar (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Salcido (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Schwinger (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Padres (home) batted first; Beavers batted second.
  First pitch 2:00 PM PT. Weather: 91°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 112713.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 10.50
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 1.33
     9 outs left: 2.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 15 Israel Fernández Huntley Cleveland (2B) 0–1 —
B 18 Huntley Cleveland Yimmi Arozarena (3B) 0–2 —
B 19 Etienne Gleeson Reed Lettiere (3B) 0–3 —
B 19 Etienne Gleeson Huntley Cleveland (2B) 0–4 —
B 19 Haxzel Andrade Huntley Cleveland (3B) 0–5 —
B 19 Haxzel Andrade Etienne Gleeson (2B) 0–6 —
B 20 Israel Fernández Ángelo Salcido (1B) 0–7 —
T 18 Levar De Turenne Val Clement (2B) 1–7 2.33
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 10.50
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 1.33
9 outs left 2.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Saitch Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 403' · RF 371' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Beavers — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Bonsa Tessema — single · EV 90 mph · LA +17° · 175 ft Yadier Guerra — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA -9° · 85 ft Dawood Aktaş — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +23° · 176 ft Hector Waters — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +19° · 228 ft Agustín Waston — double_play · EV 64 mph · LA -3° · 61 ft Val Clement — line_out · EV 91 mph · LA +14° · 152 ft Levar De Turenne — single · EV 78 mph · LA +13° · 104 ft Kyle Rabess — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +2° · 80 ft Hector Waters — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -3° · 79 ft Yadier Guerra — single · EV 87 mph · LA +8° · 86 ft Holcombe Hydrick — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +56° · 314 ft Hector Waters — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +12° · 129 ft
Padres — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Stefan Banuelos — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +28° · 209 ft Reed Lettiere — single · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 165 ft Haxzel Andrade — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +27° · 230 ft Cary Schwinger — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +41° · 302 ft Israel Fernández — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Etienne Gleeson — double · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 209 ft Kreigh Susnjar — single · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Ludlow MacCracken — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +13° · 105 ft Haxzel Andrade — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +30° · 203 ft Huntley Cleveland — single · EV 74 mph · LA +6° · 70 ft Reed Lettiere — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +33° · 210 ft Israel Fernández — double · EV 79 mph · LA +32° · 224 ft Haxzel Andrade — double · EV 93 mph · LA +35° · 323 ft Cary Schwinger — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 120 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Beavers
49% deserve-to-win  ·  3.6 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -2.6 vs expected
contact: 7.0 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-4.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 4 CS (-2.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hector Waters 96 / +19° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.23
Val Clement 91 / +14° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Hector Waters 90 / +12° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Dawood Aktaş 79 / +23° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Holcombe Hydrick 92 / +56° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.53
Padres
51% deserve-to-win  ·  3.6 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +3.4 vs expected
contact: 5.8 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+3.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Israel Fernández 79 / +32° Center Double 0.1 → 2 +1.93
Etienne Gleeson 92 / +19° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Haxzel Andrade 93 / +35° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Huntley Cleveland 74 / +6° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Cary Schwinger 87 / +41° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.67
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