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Canaries 5, Phillies 4                                      2026-08-29 · #1520
at Halloran Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
New Jersey              5    5    3    0
Philadelphia            4    4    6    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Richey      cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kramer      2b ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Kerr        rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Nachand pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Campos      1b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Fishbach    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Navarro     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hollenbeck  ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rushing     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Morriso pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Bramblett   p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Pastore pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  10   5   3   1   0   1   5   1   3   0   0  0.300
  2B: Campos (15).
  HR: Kramer (15), off Quintana.
  SB: Morrison (5), Kerr (9).
  HBP: Kerr (10).
  a-Ran for Kerr in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Rushing in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Bramblett in the 7th.

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Andrade     c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Awoniyi     lf ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Santos      2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Israilov    3b ......    1   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Mattke  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Moor        rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Tabaracci   cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Borges  ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
DelSignore  1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Alvarad ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Martín      ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Quintana    p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Vásquez pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Logar   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Ka'apan pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Anthony     j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Ferguson-Re j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cubas       j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   4   6   1   1   0   2   4   6   0   0  0.207
  2B: Borges (3).
  3B: Israilov (1).
  SB: Anthony (3).
  CS: Awoniyi (12).
  HBP: Santos (4).
  GIDP: Awoniyi (9).
  a-Ran for Israilov in the 3rd.
  b-Doubled for Tabaracci in the 8th.
  c-Batted for DelSignore in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Quintana in the 4th.
  e-Ran in the 5th.
  f-Ran for Borges in the 8th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bramblett (W, 9-0) ..    31   24  89%    6    4    1    4    4    0   96    -
Thom ................     3    3  11%    0    0    0    0    2    0   13  3-0

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Quintana ............     4    3  11%    2    2    1    0    2    1   10    -
Bowen (L, 3-11) .....     8    4  15%    1    3    3    1    1    0   20    -

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bramblett (Outs 1-24) → Thom (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Rushing (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Campos (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Richey (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-7)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Quintana (Outs 1-3) → Bowen (Outs 4-7)
CATCHER (C)       | Andrade (Outs 1-7)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | DelSignore (Outs 1-7)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santos (Outs 1-7)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Israilov (Outs 1-7)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martín (Outs 1-7)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Awoniyi (Outs 1-7)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tabaracci (Outs 1-7)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Moor (Outs 1-7)

  Batting order: Phillies (home) batted first; Canaries batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 95°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 874442.
  Walk-Back runs: off Quintana 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 0.56
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 9 Derlis Alvarado Anthony Mattke (3B) 0–1 —
B 14 Allen Ferguson-Reynolds Derlis Alvarado (3B) 0–2 —
B 22 Devron Borges Alberto Vásquez (3B) 0–3 —
B 22 Anthony Mattke Jerome Ka'apana (2B) 0–4 —
T 0 Andrea Kramer Andrea Kramer (HR) 1–4 0.44
T 0 Jerome Kerr Andrea Kramer (3B) 2–4 0.33
T 6 Andrea Kramer Ulises Morrison (3B) 3–4 0.29
T 7 Hugo Campos Renaldo Pastore (2B) 4–4 0.15
T 7 Hugo Campos Levar Nachand (1B) 5–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 0.56
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Halloran Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 271' · CF 492' · RF 299' · 36' wall). Bathtub.
Canaries — Batted Balls
7 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
271' 492' 299' Wall 36' Andrea Kramer — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +27° · 455 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 201 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +3° · 85 ft Jayden Rushing — fielders_choice · EV 86 mph · LA -10° · 82 ft Welby Richey — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -9° · 71 ft Andrea Kramer — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 311 ft Hugo Campos — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 202 ft
Phillies — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
271' 492' 299' Wall 36' Bright Awoniyi — single · EV 93 mph · LA +4° · 88 ft Sandy Santos — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -2° · 89 ft Daniel Israilov — triple · EV 105 mph · LA +16° · 233 ft Adhithya Tabaracci — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +32° · 207 ft Patrick DelSignore — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA +24° · 104 ft Yadiel Quintana — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -12° · 78 ft Vitas Anthony — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 239 ft Jahiem Moor — error · EV 84 mph · LA +22° · 195 ft Anthony Mattke — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +34° · 352 ft Allen Ferguson-Reynolds — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 202 ft Alberto Vásquez — fielders_choice · EV 74 mph · LA -1° · 70 ft Derlis Alvarado — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -6° · 80 ft Devron Borges — double · EV 94 mph · LA +43° · 355 ft Adhithya Tabaracci — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 267 ft Bright Awoniyi — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Bryan Andrade — single · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 108 ft Vitas Anthony — single · EV 62 mph · LA +23° · 114 ft Allen Ferguson-Reynolds — fly_out · EV 106 mph · LA +37° · 433 ft Anthony Mattke — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -22° · 57 ft Bright Awoniyi — single · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
30% deserve-to-win  ·  5.2 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -0.2 vs expected
contact: 7.5 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-0.5 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Andrea Kramer 119 / +27° Pull Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.07
Andrea Kramer 100 / +26° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Hugo Campos 100 / +15° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Tripp Hollenbeck 90 / +3° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.41
Jayden Rushing 86 / -10° Pull Out 0.3 → 0 -0.32
Phillies
70% deserve-to-win  ·  8.0 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -4.0 vs expected
contact: 13.3 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-4.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Allen Ferguson-Reynolds 106 / +37° Center Out 2.9 → 0 -2.88
Daniel Israilov 105 / +16° Pull Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.61
Anthony Mattke 97 / +34° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.45
Vitas Anthony 92 / +22° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Devron Borges 94 / +43° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
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