==============================================================================
Marlins 6, Red Sox 4                                        2026-08-29 · #1521
at North Ground
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Miami                   6    6    9    0
Boston                  4    4    1    0

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Chieh-yu    lf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Enquist     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Nantze  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Fitzgerald  p  ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Blackman    c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Altamirano  1b ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
  b-Chappel pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Suggs       ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Vildoza ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Mangin      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Dibert      2b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Enterline   rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Guerra  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Suárez  ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Burns       j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  29   6   9   7   0   0   6   2  11   0   0  0.310
  2B: Chieh-yu (14), Fitzgerald (6), Blackman (8), Altamirano 2 (8), Dibert (10), Suárez (19).
  SB: Chieh-yu (13).
  CS: Blackman (10), Suggs 2 (10), Dibert (6).
  a-Grounded out for Enquist in the 8th.
  b-Ran for Altamirano in the 7th.
  c-Walked for Suggs in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Vildoza in the 8th.
  e-Doubled in the 9th.

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suazo       2b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Merrill     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Venegas     c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Pfister     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Rowley  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Nytes       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Wolfe   ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Falby       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Cameron     rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Saravia     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Barnhill    p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Miranda ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Hodges  pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Núñez   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Malard      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Strachan    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   4   1   0   0   0   2   6  16   0   0  0.040
  SB: Hodges (1).
  HBP: Venegas (1).
  a-Ran for Pfister in the 4th.
  b-Batted for Nytes in the 4th.
  c-Batted in the 4th.
  d-Ran in the 5th.
  e-Ran in the 6th.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Fitzgerald (W, 10-12)     32   27 100%    1    4    4    6   16    0  136    -

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Barnhill ............     5    2   7%    3    2    2    0    1    0   12    -
Maldonado ...........    15   15  56%    3    1    1    1    9    0   55  1-0
Annacone (L, 0-3) ...    11    7  26%    3    3    3    1    1    0   24    -

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Fitzgerald (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Dibert (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mangin (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Suggs (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-27)

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-24)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Barnhill (Outs 1-2) → Maldonado (Outs 3-17) → Annacone (Outs 18-24)
CATCHER (C)       | Venegas (Outs 1-24)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Nytes (Outs 1-24)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-24)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Falby (Outs 1-24)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-24)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-24)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Pfister (Outs 1-24)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cameron (Outs 1-24)

  Batting order: Red Sox (home) batted first; Marlins batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 94°F · Wind cross · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 937462.
  Powerplays: Marlins — Chappell NF (O6)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 1.00
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.67
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 7 Manuel Suazo Manuel Suazo (3B) 0–1 —
B 9 Daylan Miranda Xzavier Wolfe (3B) 0–2 —
B 21 Bernard Strachan Jacob Hodges (2B) 0–3 —
B 24 Jacob Hodges Raymond Rowley (3B) 0–4 —
T 0 Randall Fitzgerald Montavious Chieh-yu (3B) 1–4 0.44
T 2 Carson Suggs Randall Fitzgerald (3B) 2–4 0.36
T 12 Ramon Blackman Jean Altamirano (2B) 3–4 0.40
T 20 Don Burns Clifford Chappell (2B) 4–4 0.43
T 24 Kendall Suárez Antwone Guerra (2B) 5–4 0.00
T 24 Kendall Suárez Don Burns (1B) 6–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 1.00
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to North Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 356' · CF 454' · RF 319' · 14' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Marlins — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 2 1B · 7 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Montavious Chieh-yu — double · EV 119 mph · LA +34° · 480 ft Randall Fitzgerald — double · EV 119 mph · LA +43° · 480 ft Jean Altamirano — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -18° · 74 ft Carson Suggs — single · EV 88 mph · LA -24° · 84 ft Don Burns — single · EV 85 mph · LA +17° · 159 ft Cary Nantze — fly_out · EV 119 mph · LA +27° · 454 ft Kendall Suárez — double · EV 119 mph · LA +22° · 401 ft Alex Dibert — double · EV 113 mph · LA +29° · 435 ft Jean Altamirano — double · EV 113 mph · LA +15° · 258 ft Ramon Blackman — double · EV 113 mph · LA +17° · 279 ft Ramon Blackman — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +8° · 88 ft Jean Altamirano — double · EV 95 mph · LA +18° · 211 ft Devon Mangin — fly_out · EV 119 mph · LA +23° · 410 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +37° · 384 ft Randall Fitzgerald — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +47° · 286 ft
Red Sox — Batted Balls
7 BIP· 1 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Bernard Strachan — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA -15° · 52 ft Jacob Hodges — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 142 ft Diego Saravia — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Bryson Barnhill — fielders_choice · EV 68 mph · LA +4° · 65 ft Jide Falby — line_out · EV 70 mph · LA +16° · 108 ft Henri Merrill — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +43° · 231 ft Tony Cameron — fly_out · EV 64 mph · LA +31° · 144 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
92% deserve-to-win  ·  7.7 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -1.7 vs expected
contact: 25.1 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (-9.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 4 CS (-2.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cary Nantze 119 / +27° Pull Out 2.9 → 0 -2.93
Montavious Chieh-yu 100 / +37° Oppo Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Devon Mangin 119 / +23° Oppo Out 1.7 → 0 -1.71
Montavious Chieh-yu 119 / +34° Center Double 3.6 → 2 -1.64
Randall Fitzgerald 119 / +43° Center Double 3.6 → 2 -1.58
Red Sox
8% deserve-to-win  ·  2.3 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +1.7 vs expected
contact: 1.8 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 1.0 (-0.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jide Falby 70 / +16° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Jacob Hodges 76 / +19° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Diego Saravia 76 / -4° Pull Out 0.2 → 0 -0.23
Henri Merrill 76 / +43° Pull Out 0.1 → 0 -0.15
Tony Cameron 64 / +31° Pull Out 0.1 → 0 -0.13
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →