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Reds 4, Cubs 2                                              2026-08-29 · #1522
at Pino Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                 2    2    3    0
Cincinnati              4    4    4    0

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Santana     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Hollowe pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Heinze      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
May         1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Myers       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-McCullo ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Solis       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Seol        lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Casey   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Sarkissian  rf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Cody    ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Saprissa    3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Bailey      p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Lamas   pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  f-O'Flahe pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  g-Shurtle pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Segovia ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Conn        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   2   3   1   0   0   2   6  11   0   0  0.120
  2B: Bailey (2).
  SB: Hollowell (10), Shurtleff (5).
  CS: Lamas (14), Hollowell (16).
  a-Ran for Santana in the 4th.
  b-Struck out for Myers in the 7th.
  c-Batted for Seol in the 5th.
  d-Singled for Sarkissian in the 8th.
  e-Ran for Bailey in the 3rd.
  f-Ran in the 6th.
  g-Ran for Casey in the 8th.
  h-Singled for O'Flaherty in the 8th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Minda       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Núñez       2b ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.667
Subhash     ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Morejón ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Foxworth    p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
David       c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Murakami    3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Levy    ph ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Ribera      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Acosta      1b ......    2   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Tsoubanos   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Bacca   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Warwick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Patrick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  22   4   4   2   0   1   4   2   5   0   0  0.182
  2B: Núñez 2 (9).
  HR: Acosta (1), off Bailey.
  GIDP: Núñez (3).
  a-Struck out for Subhash in the 5th.
  b-Walked for Murakami in the 7th.
  c-Ran in the 7th.

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bailey (L, 2-9) .....    23   19  70%    4    4    4    2    5    1   82    -

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Foxworth (W, 15-15) .    31   27 100%    3    2    2    6   11    0   90    -

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-19)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bailey (Outs 1-19)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-19)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | May (Outs 1-19)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santana (Outs 1-19)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saprissa (Outs 1-19)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Solis (Outs 1-19)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Seol (Outs 1-19)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Myers (Outs 1-19)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sarkissian (Outs 1-19)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Foxworth (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | David (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Acosta (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Minda (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ribera (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted second; Cubs batted first.
  First pitch 2:00 PM CT. Weather: 99°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 887945.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.33    Peak faced 0.38
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.17
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 7 Nathaniel Bailey Samuel Sarkissian (3B) 1–0 —
T 22 Dudley Cody Bryce Shurtleff (2B) 2–0 —
B 6 Johnny Acosta Orlando Núñez (2B) 2–1 0.29
B 6 Johnny Acosta Johnny Acosta (HR) 2–2 0.14
B 19 Orlando Núñez Abdiel Bacca (2B) 2–3 0.00
B 19 Orlando Núñez Jackson Levy (1B) 2–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.33
Peak faced 0.38
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.17
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Cubs — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Jaume Santana — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +33° · 264 ft Tomas Heinze — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +4° · 83 ft Floyd Myers — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -9° · 71 ft Samuel Sarkissian — fielders_choice · EV 74 mph · LA -5° · 71 ft Ivan Saprissa — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -11° · 74 ft Nathaniel Bailey — double · EV 102 mph · LA +33° · 379 ft Douglas Casey — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +5° · 49 ft Wyatt Conn — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -1° · 82 ft Dudley Cody — single · EV 87 mph · LA -2° · 83 ft Teófilo Segovia — single · EV 82 mph · LA +2° · 78 ft Tomas Heinze — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -19° · 80 ft Samuel Sarkissian — fly_out · EV 70 mph · LA +43° · 195 ft Eddie Solis — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 73 ft Tomas Heinze — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +13° · 106 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 1 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Travis Foxworth — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +41° · 255 ft Bret David — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +27° · 297 ft Emmanuel Murakami — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -13° · 81 ft Orlando Núñez — double · EV 84 mph · LA +39° · 277 ft Johnny Acosta — hr · EV 105 mph · LA +37° · 419 ft Ed Tsoubanos — line_out · EV 64 mph · LA +26° · 128 ft Shelby Warwick — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +26° · 272 ft Bret David — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +10° · 136 ft Emmanuel Murakami — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +23° · 199 ft Orlando Núñez — double_play · EV 88 mph · LA +23° · 220 ft Matias Minda — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +46° · 244 ft Travis Foxworth — single · EV 106 mph · LA +19° · 282 ft Bret David — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +3° · 90 ft Orlando Núñez — double · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 219 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
28% deserve-to-win  ·  3.6 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -1.6 vs expected
contact: 5.5 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-1.5 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 2 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Teófilo Segovia 82 / +2° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Dudley Cody 87 / -2° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Tomas Heinze 78 / +13° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Jaume Santana 85 / +33° Pull Out 0.4 → 0 -0.44
Tomas Heinze 85 / -19° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.34
Reds
72% deserve-to-win  ·  5.8 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.8 vs expected
contact: 11.8 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-2.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Orlando Núñez 84 / +39° Pull Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Johnny Acosta 105 / +37° Pull Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.12
Orlando Núñez 92 / +20° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Bret David 98 / +10° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Bret David 96 / +27° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
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