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Braves 5, Tigers 4                                          2026-08-30 · #1526
at The Citadel
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                        1    R    H    E
Detroit                 4    4    6    1
Atlanta                 5    5    7    0

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Delatte     ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Grimald ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Peavy       lf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cotzumalgua 1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Zheng       2b ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Kuchiki     rf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Monroe      3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Day         c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  b-Lutmer  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Marion      cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Kobak       p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Acebo   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Whorisk ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-McMicha pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Ndiaye  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Borden  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Massey      j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Soldan      j  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  26   4   6   1   0   0   4   6  13   0   0  0.231
  2B: Soldan (9).
  SB: Acebo (19).
  CS: Cotzumalguapa (9), Monroe (10).
  E: Kobak (1).
  HBP: Peavy (5).
  GIDP: Cotzumalguapa (10).
  a-Batted for Delatte in the 6th.
  b-Grounded out for Day in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Kobak in the 3rd.
  d-Batted for Acebo in the 3rd.
  e-Ran in the 5th.
  f-Ran in the 7th.
  g-Ran for Lutmer in the 7th.

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Alvelo      2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Justini pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Chu         ss ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Bombito     p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.333
Nilo        rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kalogeropou lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Spencer     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Vargas  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sherman     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ramon-Edwar c  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Almeida ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Martín      cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Sapriss ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Allison pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Nightin ph ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Pfister ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
María       j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  27   5   7   1   0   0   3   2   7   0   1  0.259
  2B: María (8).
  CS: Chu (13).
  GIDP: Allison (1).
  a-Ran for Alvelo in the 5th.
  b-Batted for Spencer in the 5th.
  c-Batted for Ramon-Edwards in the 5th.
  d-Singled for Martín in the 6th.
  e-Ran in the 6th.
  f-Walked in the 7th.
  g-Struck out in the 7th.

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Kobak (L, 6-7) ......    27   23   86  3.2    5    4    2    2    7    0    -
Muriel ..............     0    1    0    -    0    1    1    0    0    0  2-1

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Bombito (W, 9-6) ....    30   24  116  3.9    6    4    4    6   11    0    -
Barcello ............     3    3   13  4.3    0    0    0    0    2    0  1-0

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-24)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Kobak (Outs 1-23) → Muriel (Outs 24-24)
CATCHER (C)       | Day (Outs 1-24)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cotzumalguapa (Outs 1-24)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Zheng (Outs 1-24)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Monroe (Outs 1-24)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Delatte (Outs 1-24)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Peavy (Outs 1-24)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Marion (Outs 1-24)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kuchiki (Outs 1-24)

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bombito (Outs 1-24) → Barcello (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ramon-Edwards (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Spencer (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Alvelo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sherman (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Chu (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Martín (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Nilo (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Braves (home) batted second; Tigers batted first.
  First pitch 2:00 PM CT. Weather: 88°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 708841.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 1.50
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 1.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 20 Barry McMichael Noah Massey (3B) 1–0 —
T 20 Barry McMichael Karl Marion (2B) 2–0 —
T 24 Kenyatta Soldan Rocky Kuchiki (2B) 3–0 —
T 24 Kenyatta Soldan Ed Peavy (1B) 4–0 —
B 13 Mac Sherman Sean Ramon-Edwards (3B) 4–1 0.86
B 18 Jefferson Di María Maximo Justiniano (3B) 4–2 1.00
B 19 Mariano Vargas Cameron Allison (3B) 4–3 0.75
B 23 Todd Chu Jefferson Di María (3B) 4–4 0.75
B 23 Donovan Bombito Donny Nightingale (3B) 4–5 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 1.50
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Citadel's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 355' · RF 345' · 10' wall). The Crescent — Inverted.
Crescent Grandstand
Tigers — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — single · EV 74 mph · LA -14° · 70 ft Zixuan Zheng — infield_single · EV 72 mph · LA -13° · 68 ft Liam Lutmer — fielders_choice · EV 67 mph · LA -1° · 64 ft Barry McMichael — single · EV 70 mph · LA +20° · 125 ft Zixuan Zheng — single · EV 80 mph · LA +4° · 76 ft Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +44° · 306 ft Ed Peavy — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +5° · 82 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — line_out · EV 66 mph · LA +11° · 66 ft Kenyatta Soldan — double · EV 84 mph · LA +35° · 262 ft Rocky Kuchiki — single · EV 78 mph · LA -0° · 74 ft Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — double_play · EV 93 mph · LA +16° · 182 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — fielders_choice · EV 86 mph · LA -4° · 82 ft
Braves — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Todd Chu — single · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 180 ft Oscar Nilo — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +31° · 211 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — fly_out · EV 68 mph · LA +34° · 171 ft Zack Spencer — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +8° · 50 ft Mac Sherman — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +38° · 225 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 135 ft Mariano Vargas — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -2° · 49 ft Wilson Almeida — line_out · EV 62 mph · LA +19° · 95 ft Haxzel Saprissa — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 122 ft Jefferson Di María — double · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 273 ft Cameron Allison — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 107 ft Todd Chu — fly_out · EV 61 mph · LA +34° · 138 ft Donovan Bombito — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +54° · 103 ft Oscar Nilo — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +38° · 226 ft Mac Sherman — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -1° · 49 ft Mariano Vargas — error · EV 92 mph · LA +2° · 87 ft Todd Chu — single · EV 52 mph · LA +25° · 83 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Tigers
91% deserve-to-win  ·  2.9 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +1.1 vs expected
contact: 4.6 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+2.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-1.0 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Kenyatta Soldan 84 / +35° Center Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Yimmi Cotzumalguapa 93 / +16° Center Double Play 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Rocky Kuchiki 78 / +0° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Yimmi Cotzumalguapa 74 / -14° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Zixuan Zheng 72 / -13° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Braves
9% deserve-to-win  ·  0.9 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +4.1 vs expected
contact: 3.9 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+2.1 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jefferson Di María 92 / +27° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Todd Chu 52 / +25° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.87
Todd Chu 76 / +26° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.84
Haxzel Saprissa 76 / +16° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Cameron Allison 76 / +14° Oppo Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.47
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