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Tigers 3, Braves 2                                          2026-08-29 · #1525
at The Citadel
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                        1    R    H    E
Detroit                 3    3    4    0
Atlanta                 2    2    4    0

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Amigo       cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Peavy       lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cotzumalgua 2b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Zheng       ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Kuchiki     rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Acebo   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Monroe      3b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Day         c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Marion      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Okonkwo     p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Whorisk ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Grimald ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Takuma  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Massey      j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Soldan      j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  26   3   4   2   0   0   2   4   9   0   0  0.154
  2B: Cotzumalguapa (11), Monroe (6).
  SB: Massey (6).
  CS: Okonkwo (2).
  HBP: Soldan (3).
  GIDP: Amigo (4), Zheng (4), Day (4).
  a-Ran for Kuchiki in the 3rd.
  b-Grounded out for Acebo in the 7th.
  c-Grounded out for Massey in the 8th.
  d-Ran in the 9th.

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Alvelo      2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Spencer     rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Sapriss pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Chu         ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Bray    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kalogeropou lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sherman     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Vargas  ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Ramon-Edwar c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Nightingale 1b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  d-Allison pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Martín      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Morrow      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Justini pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Powlus  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Lamar   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  h-Almeida pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  i-Molin   ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
María       j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   2   4   1   0   0   1   3  12   0   0  0.148
  2B: Nightingale (11).
  CS: Saprissa (4), Ramon-Edwards (7), Justiniano (11).
  HBP: Almeida (4).
  a-Ran for Spencer in the 8th.
  b-Grounded out for Chu in the 6th.
  c-Batted for Sherman in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Nightingale in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Morrow in the 4th.
  f-Ran in the 8th.
  g-Singled for Justiniano in the 7th.
  h-Ran for Bray in the 7th.
  i-Batted in the 7th.

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Okonkwo (W, 12-8) ...    31   27  105  3.4    4    2    2    3   12    0    -

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Morrow (L, 19-4) ....    27   22   89  3.3    4    3    3    3    8    0    -
Rodriguez ...........     4    5    6  1.5    0    0    0    1    1    0  2-0

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Okonkwo (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Day (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Marion (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Cotzumalguapa (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Monroe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Zheng (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Amigo (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kuchiki (Outs 1-27)

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Morrow (Outs 1-22) → Rodriguez (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ramon-Edwards (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Nightingale (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Alvelo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sherman (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Chu (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Martín (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spencer (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Braves (home) batted second; Tigers batted first.
  First pitch 6:40 PM CT. Weather: 92°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 240652.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 4.50
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 1.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 3 Cooper Monroe Zixuan Zheng (2B) 1–0 —
T 6 Carter Okonkwo Raymond Acebo (3B) 2–0 —
T 22 Yimmi Cotzumalguapa Noah Massey (3B) 3–0 —
B 21 Jefferson Di María Beals Powlus (3B) 3–1 1.50
B 26 Lyrik Molin Mariano Vargas (3B) 3–2 6.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 4.50
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 1.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Citadel's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 355' · RF 345' · 10' wall). The Crescent — Inverted.
Crescent Grandstand
Tigers — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +27° · 237 ft Cooper Monroe — double · EV 83 mph · LA +13° · 120 ft Christian Day — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 169 ft Karl Marion — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -10° · 54 ft Carter Okonkwo — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -15° · 49 ft Noah Massey — single · EV 99 mph · LA +7° · 94 ft Zixuan Zheng — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -14° · 49 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA +6° · 51 ft Jon Grimaldo — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +38° · 246 ft Carter Okonkwo — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 116 ft Karl Marion — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 98 ft Christian Day — double_play · EV 55 mph · LA +15° · 60 ft Ed Peavy — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -4° · 49 ft Zixuan Zheng — line_out · EV 60 mph · LA +11° · 60 ft Cooper Monroe — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 189 ft Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — double · EV 98 mph · LA +33° · 347 ft Eloy Amigo — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA -9° · 54 ft
Braves — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Todd Chu — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -6° · 58 ft Hugo Bray — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA +6° · 49 ft Dennis Lamar — single · EV 83 mph · LA +14° · 132 ft Lyrik Molin — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +48° · 230 ft Haxzel Saprissa — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 64 ft Jonathan Morrow — fielders_choice · EV 63 mph · LA -14° · 60 ft Donny Nightingale — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -8° · 54 ft Zack Spencer — single · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 243 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +40° · 261 ft Mirko Alvelo — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -17° · 59 ft Jefferson Di María — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Lyrik Molin — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 140 ft Donny Nightingale — double · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 287 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA -6° · 58 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Tigers
97% deserve-to-win  ·  3.8 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 5.9 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+0.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cooper Monroe 83 / +13° Center Double 0.6 → 2 +1.42
Christian Day 76 / +24° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Carter Okonkwo 76 / +15° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Yimmi Cotzumalguapa 98 / +33° Center Double 1.5 → 2 +0.53
Noah Massey 99 / +7° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
Braves
3% deserve-to-win  ·  0.7 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  +1.3 vs expected
contact: 4.9 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+0.1 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 3 CS (-2.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Donny Nightingale 92 / +29° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Kreigh Kalogeropoulos 81 / +40° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.67
Haxzel Saprissa 76 / +8° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Lyrik Molin 76 / +18° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Dennis Lamar 83 / +14° Pull Single 0.6 → 1 +0.42
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