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Brewers 23, Stars 3                                         2026-08-29 · #1524
at Neviaser Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Milwaukee              23   23   16    1
Nashville               3    3    3    0

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Fossati     lf ......    5   4   3   0   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  0.600
Williams    ss ......    4   3   2   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
Espinoza    3b ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Edwards     cf ......    4   3   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Yani        c  ......    5   2   2   1   0   0   4   0   1   0   0  0.400
Kaplan      1b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.250
Chura       rf ......    5   1   2   1   0   0   4   0   3   1   0  0.400
Trejo       2b ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.250
Cortizo     p  ......    5   3   2   0   0   1   4   0   1   0   0  0.400
  a-Irving  ph ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Nava        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  41  23  16   3   0   4  23   4   9   1   0  0.390
  2B: Yani (18), Chura (2), Irving (54).
  HR: Fossati (8), off Cubas; Espinoza (8), off Cubas; Edwards (10), off Langenfeld; Cortizo (7), off Groves.
  E: Williams (4).
  HBP: Edwards (6).
  a-Batted in the 5th.

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gayton      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Cooper      lf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Fusano      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Spence      rf ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Gaubert     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Coupe       3b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Torrero     1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Burani      2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Langenfeld  p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   1   1  1.000
  a-Sapping ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   3   3   1   0   0   3   2   7   1   2  0.115
  2B: Cooper (23).
  SB: Coupe (1).
  GIDP: Burani (4).
  GITP: Cooper (1).
  a-Batted in the 5th.

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Cortizo (W, 14-4) ...    12   12  44%    1    2    2    1    3    0   39    -
Hamdy ...............    13   12  44%    2    0    0    1    4    0   54    -
Kossmann ............     3    3  11%    0    1    1    0    0    0   15  1-1

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Langenfeld ..........     8    5  19%    4    3    2    0    2    1   32    -
Cubas ...............     8    5  19%    4    6    4    0    1    2   33  1-1
Groves (L, 1-1) .....    11    5  19%    3    8    8    2    3    1   45  1-1
Scotti ..............    13    8  30%    3    3    2    2    1    0   46  1-1
Spence ..............     4    4  15%    1    3    3    0    2    0   14  2-2

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Cortizo (Outs 1-12) → Hamdy (Outs 13-24) → Kossmann (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Yani (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kaplan (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Trejo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Espinoza (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Williams (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fossati (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Edwards (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Chura (Outs 1-27)

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Langenfeld (Outs 1-5) → Cubas (Outs 6-10) → Groves (Outs 11-15) → Scotti (Outs 16-23) → Spence (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Fusano (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Torrero (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Burani (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Coupe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Gaubert (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spence (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Stars (home) batted second; Brewers batted first.
  First pitch 4:05 PM CT. Weather: 86°F · Wind cross · Clear · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 658691.
  Powerplays: Stars — Sappington NF
  Walk-Back runs: off Langenfeld 1, off Cubas 2, off Scotti 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.67    Peak faced 63.00
    27 outs left: 2.67
    18 outs left: 3.67
     9 outs left: 7.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 3 Daniel Edwards Daniel Edwards (HR) 1–0 —
T 3 Graydon Yani Daniel Edwards (3B) 2–0 —
T 5 Francis Trejo Graydon Yani (2B) 3–0 —
T 6 Alan Fossati Francis Trejo (1B) 4–0 —
T 6 Alan Fossati Alan Fossati (HR) 5–0 —
T 7 Jesse Williams Alan Fossati (3B) 6–0 —
T 7 Andres Espinoza Jesse Williams (1B) 7–0 —
T 7 Andres Espinoza Andres Espinoza (HR) 8–0 —
T 10 Jon Chura Andres Espinoza (3B) 9–0 —
T 12 Jesse Williams Jon Chura (2B) 10–0 —
T 13 Graydon Yani Francis Trejo (3B) 11–0 —
T 13 Graydon Yani Jesse Williams (2B) 12–0 —
T 13 Graydon Yani Daniel Edwards (1B) 13–0 —
T 15 Oscar Cortizo Graydon Yani (3B) 14–0 —
T 15 Oscar Cortizo Steven Kaplan (2B) 15–0 —
T 15 Oscar Cortizo Oscar Cortizo (1B) 16–0 —
T 15 Oscar Cortizo Oscar Cortizo (—) 17–0 —
T 15 Francis Trejo Oscar Cortizo (3B) 18–0 —
T 20 Alan Fossati Clifford Irving (2B) 19–0 —
T 20 Alan Fossati Jesse Williams (2B) 20–0 —
T 24 Jon Chura Alan Fossati (3B) 21–0 —
T 24 Jon Chura Alan Fossati (3B) 22–0 —
T 24 Jon Chura Clifford Irving (1B) 23–0 —
B 5 Andre Langenfeld Sean Spence (3B) 23–1 3.14
B 6 Andre Langenfeld Hady Coupe (3B) 23–2 3.14
B 24 Wallace Sappington Sean Spence (3B) 23–3 21.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.67
Peak faced 63.00
27 outs left 2.67
18 outs left 3.67
9 outs left 7.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Neviaser Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 279' · CF 373' · RF 278' · 12' wall). The Bandbox.
Brewers — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 8 1B · 3 XBH · 4 HR
279' 373' 278' Alan Fossati — fly_out · EV 119 mph · LA +18° · 336 ft Daniel Edwards — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +30° · 411 ft Graydon Yani — single · EV 94 mph · LA +10° · 118 ft Steven Kaplan — single · EV 119 mph · LA +17° · 320 ft Francis Trejo — single · EV 100 mph · LA -8° · 95 ft Alan Fossati — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +26° · 451 ft Jesse Williams — single · EV 100 mph · LA -10° · 95 ft Andres Espinoza — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +32° · 450 ft Graydon Yani — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +14° · 170 ft Jon Chura — single · EV 118 mph · LA +8° · 157 ft Clifford Irving — double · EV 94 mph · LA +25° · 272 ft Jesse Williams — single · EV 84 mph · LA -14° · 79 ft Graydon Yani — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 189 ft Francis Trejo — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +4° · 73 ft Steven Kaplan — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 304 ft Daniel Edwards — ground_out · EV 114 mph · LA +1° · 109 ft Oscar Cortizo — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +42° · 480 ft Jon Chura — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 160 ft Alan Fossati — single · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Steven Kaplan — line_out · EV 116 mph · LA +20° · 338 ft Alan Fossati — single · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft Graydon Yani — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 237 ft Jon Chura — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 227 ft Oscar Cortizo — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -17° · 84 ft
Stars — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
279' 373' 278' Bruno Cooper — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA -7° · 56 ft Sean Spence — error · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 78 ft Hady Coupe — error · EV 53 mph · LA -13° · 51 ft Andre Langenfeld — single · EV 55 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft Andre Langenfeld — line_out · EV 55 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft Justo Burani — double_play · EV 58 mph · LA +6° · 55 ft Elias Torrero — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -12° · 49 ft Hady Coupe — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA +3° · 54 ft Sean Spence — single · EV 76 mph · LA -17° · 72 ft Bruno Cooper — double · EV 91 mph · LA +13° · 143 ft Jaime Gaubert — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +17° · 60 ft Wallace Sappington — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +43° · 231 ft Justo Burani — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +16° · 128 ft Sean Spence — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +20° · 69 ft Tracy Fusano — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 84 ft Bruno Cooper — triple_play · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 199 ft Justo Burani — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +33° · 233 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brewers
96% deserve-to-win  ·  15.8 expected runs
actual 23 runs  ·  +7.2 vs expected
contact: 31.5 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 29.0 (-2.5 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Daniel Edwards 109 / +30° Pull Home Run 2.2 → 4 +1.75
Alan Fossati 119 / +18° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.71
Steven Kaplan 116 / +20° Oppo Out 1.7 → 0 -1.71
Graydon Yani 100 / +18° Oppo Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Steven Kaplan 100 / +25° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Stars
4% deserve-to-win  ·  3.3 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.3 vs expected
contact: 6.0 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-2.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Bruno Cooper 91 / +13° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Bruno Cooper 92 / +18° Pull Triple Play 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Sean Spence 76 / -17° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Andre Langenfeld 55 / +12° Pull Stay 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Sean Spence 76 / +10° Center Reached on Error 0.5 → 0 -0.47
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