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Brewers 13, Stars 2                                         2026-08-30 · #1528
at Neviaser Bowl
==============================================================================

                        1      2    R    H    E
Milwaukee              13      0   13   11    0
Nashville               2      -    2    7    0

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mesidor     c  ......    4   4   4   1   0   2   4   0   0   0   0  1.000
Edwards     lf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Yani        rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Kaplan      3b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Saravia     ss ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Flores      1b ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Johnston    cf ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Trejo       2b ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Kollen      p  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.250
  a-Fossati ph ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  33  13  11   3   0   3  13   5   9   0   0  0.333
  2B: Mesidor (37), Flores (9), Johnston (3).
  HR: Mesidor 2 (19), off Kekahuna; Fossati (9), off Alston.
  a-Batted in the 6th.

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gaubert     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Karouani    1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Cooper      lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Fusano      c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Boattin     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Coupe       3b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Gayton      cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Burani      2b ......    3   1   3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Kekahuna    p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Sapping ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  28   2   7   1   0   0   1   1   9   0   0  0.250
  2B: Fusano (18).
  HBP: Burani (4).
  GIDP: Gayton (8).
  a-Batted in the 6th.

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Kollen (W, 17-3) ....    13   12   61  4.7    2    2    2    0    5    0    -
Hamdy ...............    13   12   53  4.1    3    0    0    1    4    0  1-0
Kossmann ............     2    3    5  2.5    1    0    0    0    0    0  2-0

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Kekahuna ............    11    9   46  4.2    2    3    3    1    5    2    -
Louis ...............     8    3   30  3.8    3    4    3    3    1    0  1-1
Alston (L, 2-3) .....    15   14   62  4.1    4    5    5    1    3    1  2-2
Scotti ..............     2    1    4  2.0    1    1    1    0    0    0  1-1

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Kollen (Outs 1-12) → Hamdy (Outs 13-24) → Kossmann (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mesidor (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Flores (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Trejo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Kaplan (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Edwards (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Johnston (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Yani (Outs 1-27)

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Kekahuna (Outs 1-9) → Louis (Outs 10-12) → Alston (Outs 13-26) → Scotti (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Fusano (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Karouani (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Burani (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Coupe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Gaubert (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Boattin (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Stars (home) batted second; Brewers batted first.
  Seconds: MIL o26 (13-0).
  First pitch 7:35 PM CT. Weather: 94°F · Wind out · Overcast · Humid. seed 483499.
  Walk-Back runs: off Louis 1, off Scotti 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.56    Peak faced 18.00
    27 outs left: 1.56
    18 outs left: 2.17
     9 outs left: 4.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 0 Stan Mesidor Stan Mesidor (HR) 1–0 —
T 8 Stan Mesidor Stan Mesidor (3B) 2–0 —
T 8 Stan Mesidor Stan Mesidor (—) 3–0 —
T 8 Daniel Edwards Stan Mesidor (3B) 4–0 —
T 10 Rodolfo Flores Daniel Edwards (2B) 5–0 —
T 10 Rodolfo Flores Sergio Saravia (1B) 6–0 —
T 11 Robby Kollen Raul Johnston (3B) 7–0 —
T 12 Raul Johnston Francis Trejo (3B) 8–0 —
T 15 Steven Kaplan Robby Kollen (3B) 9–0 —
T 15 Steven Kaplan Raul Johnston (2B) 10–0 —
T 24 Alan Fossati Rodolfo Flores (2B) 11–0 —
T 24 Alan Fossati Alan Fossati (HR) 12–0 —
T 25 Stan Mesidor Alan Fossati (3B) 13–0 —
B 6 Dylan Kekahuna Hady Coupe (3B) 13–1 1.86
B 9 Hady Coupe Justo Burani (3B) 13–2 2.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.56
Peak faced 18.00
27 outs left 1.56
18 outs left 2.17
9 outs left 4.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Neviaser Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 279' · CF 373' · RF 278' · 12' wall). The Bandbox.
Brewers — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 3 HR
279' 373' 278' Stan Mesidor — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +31° · 480 ft Graydon Yani — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -9° · 89 ft Stan Mesidor — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +42° · 398 ft Daniel Edwards — single · EV 112 mph · LA -9° · 106 ft Rodolfo Flores — double · EV 88 mph · LA +24° · 232 ft Raul Johnston — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 214 ft Sergio Saravia — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -11° · 80 ft Alan Fossati — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 344 ft Steven Kaplan — single · EV 82 mph · LA +21° · 183 ft Stan Mesidor — single · EV 119 mph · LA +8° · 163 ft Raul Johnston — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +10° · 126 ft Rodolfo Flores — single · EV 88 mph · LA +11° · 113 ft Steven Kaplan — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -23° · 84 ft Daniel Edwards — line_out · EV 91 mph · LA +15° · 165 ft Stan Mesidor — double · EV 115 mph · LA +10° · 191 ft Robby Kollen — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +27° · 197 ft Francis Trejo — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +5° · 91 ft
Stars — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
279' 373' 278' Jaime Gaubert — error · EV 55 mph · LA -10° · 52 ft Hady Coupe — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -15° · 49 ft Edwin Gayton — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 153 ft Justo Burani — single · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 210 ft Wallace Sappington — single · EV 92 mph · LA +24° · 255 ft Justo Burani — single · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Jaime Gaubert — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -14° · 49 ft Bruno Cooper — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Edwin Gayton — fly_out · EV 54 mph · LA +28° · 96 ft Hady Coupe — single · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Jaime Gaubert — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 90 ft Tracy Fusano — double · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 292 ft Justo Burani — single · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Edwin Gayton — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +6° · 49 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brewers
96% deserve-to-win  ·  10.1 expected runs
actual 13 runs  ·  +2.9 vs expected
contact: 17.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 22.0 (+4.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Alan Fossati 100 / +30° Pull Home Run 1.3 → 4 +2.67
Stan Mesidor 100 / +42° Center Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.41
Rodolfo Flores 88 / +24° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Raul Johnston 95 / +10° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Stan Mesidor 119 / +31° Center Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.07
Stars
4% deserve-to-win  ·  2.0 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 4.9 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+2.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tracy Fusano 92 / +30° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Hady Coupe 76 / -3° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Justo Burani 76 / -11° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Justo Burani 76 / +6° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Edwin Gayton 76 / +21° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
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