==============================================================================
Reds 3, Tigers 2                                            2026-08-31 · #1543
at Kuvvatov Bowl
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Cincinnati              3    3    4    0
Detroit                 2    2    6    0

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Núñez       2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Subhash     ss ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Suarez      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Roy         3b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Levy        cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Ribera      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Murakami    1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tsoubanos   lf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Aguilar     p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1   .000
  a-David   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  12   3   4   1   0   0   2   2   5   0   1  0.333
  2B: Roy (5).
  a-Struck out in the 3rd.

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Amigo       cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Delatte     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Peavy       lf ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Acebo   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Cotzumalgua 1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Zheng       3b ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
  b-Monroe  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kuchiki     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Day         2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-McMicha pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Lutmer      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Briggs      p  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.333
  d-Whorisk ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Verón   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Massey      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   2   6   1   0   0   2   1   9   0   1  0.214
  2B: Briggs (2).
  SB: Acebo (20).
  a-Ran for Peavy in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Zheng in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Day in the 5th.
  d-Grounded out for Acebo in the 7th.
  e-Struck out for Massey in the 9th.

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Aguilar (W, 19-7) ...    30   27 100%    6    2    2    1   10    0   92    -

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Briggs (L, 2-7) .....    14    9  33%    4    3    3    2    5    0   57    -

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Aguilar (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ribera (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Roy (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Levy (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Suarez (Outs 1-27)

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-9)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Briggs (Outs 1-9)
CATCHER (C)       | Lutmer (Outs 1-9)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cotzumalguapa (Outs 1-9)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Day (Outs 1-9)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Zheng (Outs 1-9)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Delatte (Outs 1-9)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Peavy (Outs 1-9)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Amigo (Outs 1-9)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kuchiki (Outs 1-9)

  Batting order: Tigers (home) batted first; Reds batted second.
  First pitch 7:05 PM CT. Weather: 78°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 25504.
  Powerplays: Reds — David NF (O1)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.33    Peak faced 0.41
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.17
     9 outs left: 0.33
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 1 Ed Peavy Eloy Amigo (2B) 0–1 —
B 11 Zixuan Zheng Raymond Acebo (2B) 0–2 —
T 5 Rony Aguilar Zachary Subhash (3B) 1–2 0.27
T 7 Jackson Levy Dariel Morejón (3B) 2–2 0.15
T 9 Felix Ribera Ed Tsoubanos (3B) 3–2 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.33
Peak faced 0.41
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.17
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kuvvatov Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 307' · CF 431' · RF 353' · 43' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Reds — Batted Balls
6 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
307' 431' 353' Wall 43' Adam Roy — double · EV 92 mph · LA +50° · 334 ft Jackson Levy — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +24° · 250 ft Zachary Subhash — error · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 87 ft Orlando Núñez — single · EV 63 mph · LA -7° · 60 ft Ed Tsoubanos — single · EV 80 mph · LA -2° · 76 ft Jackson Levy — single · EV 81 mph · LA +14° · 119 ft
Tigers — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
307' 431' 353' Wall 43' Eloy Amigo — single · EV 88 mph · LA +1° · 84 ft Aleksandar Delatte — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA +3° · 69 ft Ed Peavy — single · EV 87 mph · LA +21° · 207 ft Juan Briggs — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +4° · 76 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -6° · 87 ft Barry McMichael — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -6° · 77 ft Noah Massey — line_out · EV 110 mph · LA +9° · 148 ft Eloy Amigo — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -19° · 69 ft Ed Peavy — single · EV 83 mph · LA -10° · 79 ft Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — fly_out · EV 115 mph · LA +31° · 472 ft Zixuan Zheng — single · EV 89 mph · LA +5° · 84 ft Rocky Kuchiki — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -6° · 78 ft Christian Day — fielders_choice · EV 67 mph · LA +4° · 63 ft Juan Briggs — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 250 ft Eloy Amigo — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +2° · 91 ft Zixuan Zheng — single · EV 86 mph · LA -13° · 82 ft Liam Lutmer — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Juan Briggs — double · EV 88 mph · LA +40° · 304 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Reds
9% deserve-to-win  ·  1.8 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +1.2 vs expected
contact: 2.8 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+2.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Adam Roy 92 / +50° Center Double 0.5 → 2 +1.48
Jackson Levy 92 / +24° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Orlando Núñez 63 / -7° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Ed Tsoubanos 80 / -2° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Zachary Subhash 76 / +11° Oppo Reached on Error 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Tigers
91% deserve-to-win  ·  5.5 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -3.5 vs expected
contact: 11.6 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-4.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yimmi Cotzumalguapa 115 / +31° Center Out 2.9 → 0 -2.93
Noah Massey 110 / +9° Oppo Out 1.5 → 0 -1.46
Juan Briggs 100 / +19° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Juan Briggs 88 / +40° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Eloy Amigo 88 / +1° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →