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Orioles 8, Canaries 6                                       2026-08-31 · #1542
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
New Jersey              6    6    7    0
Baltimore               8    8   11    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Morriso pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Pastore     c  ......    2   1   2   1   1   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Kerr        rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Campos      ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Nachand pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Crader      p  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cordero     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Fishbach    1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Navarro     cf ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Lacava      3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Richey  pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Conway  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Woodall     j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  26   6   7   2   1   0   6   8   5   0   0  0.269
  2B: Kramer (44), Pastore (17).
  3B: Pastore (1).
  CS: Navarro (9), Morrison (8), Nachand (4).
  HBP: Pastore (5).
  GIDP: Fishbach (4), Nachand (2), Conway (2).
  a-Ran for Kramer in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Campos in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Lacava in the 3rd.
  d-Grounded out for Morrison in the 8th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Schloss     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Barba   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Mateer      3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Sigourney   2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Maciejc ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Foust       ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
Samudio     c  ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   5   0   0   0   0  0.500
Flowers     lf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Alison      1b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Kautz   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Stokke      rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Purchas ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Roy         p  ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Ison    pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Michulk pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Heath   pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Rubin       j  ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Thompson    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   8  11   2   0   0   8   4   6   0   0  0.379
  2B: Samudio (13), Alison (11).
  SB: Foust (18), Samudio (1).
  CS: Michulka (7).
  GIDP: Mateer (5), Flowers (9).
  Squeeze: Foust (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Schloss in the 3rd.
  b-Singled for Sigourney in the 5th.
  c-Singled for Alison in the 5th.
  d-Batted for Stokke in the 5th.
  e-Ran in the 6th.
  f-Ran in the 7th.
  g-Ran for Maciejczak in the 5th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Crader (L, 17-4) ....    21   15  56%    7    6    6    2    6    0   80    -
Israel ..............    11    9  33%    3    2    2    2    0    0   43  2-0

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Roy .................    17   11  41%    4    4    4    3    4    0   61    -
Schmelzle (W, 4-3) ..    16   12  44%    3    2    2    5    0    0   42  2-1
Luqueño .............     2    4  15%    0    0    0    0    1    0    5  3-0

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-24)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Crader (Outs 1-15) → Israel (Outs 16-24)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-24)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Fishbach (Outs 1-24)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-24)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-24)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Campos (Outs 1-24)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-24)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-24)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-24)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Roy (Outs 1-11) → Schmelzle (Outs 12-23) → Luqueño (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mateer (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Flowers (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Schloss (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Stokke (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted second; Canaries batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 84°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 300961.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 1.00
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 8 Andrea Kramer Welby Richey (1B) 1–0 —
T 8 Renaldo Pastore Ulises Morrison (2B) 2–0 —
T 11 Deylin Fishbach Renaldo Pastore (3B) 3–0 —
T 11 Deylin Fishbach Jesse Woodall (2B) 4–0 —
T 11 Ramón Navarro Levar Nachand (3B) 5–0 —
T 23 Levar Nachand Ramón Navarro (3B) 6–0 —
B 3 Kristian Alison Korey Flowers (2B) 6–1 0.75
B 5 Alastair Roy Kreigh Mateer (3B) 6–2 0.68
B 5 Sidney Foust Kristian Alison (3B) 6–3 0.55
B 5 Rónald Samudio Alastair Roy (2B) 6–4 0.41
B 15 Rónald Samudio Arkie Rubin (3B) 6–5 0.50
B 15 Rónald Samudio Ahmad Heath (2B) 6–6 0.25
B 24 Rónald Samudio Dylan Purchase (3B) 6–7 0.00
B 24 Rónald Samudio Ahmad Heath (2B) 6–8 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 1.00
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Canaries — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Renaldo Pastore — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 307 ft Jerome Kerr — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +1° · 83 ft Hugo Campos — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +43° · 406 ft Deylin Fishbach — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 231 ft Ramón Navarro — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -18° · 88 ft Ulises Morrison — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA -2° · 86 ft Levar Nachand — double_play · EV 73 mph · LA -1° · 69 ft Leo Conway — double_play · EV 83 mph · LA -16° · 79 ft Andrea Kramer — double · EV 113 mph · LA +17° · 288 ft Renaldo Pastore — double · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 255 ft Vincent Crader — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Deylin Fishbach — single · EV 105 mph · LA +13° · 193 ft Ramón Navarro — single · EV 86 mph · LA -10° · 82 ft Welby Richey — infield_single · EV 66 mph · LA -11° · 63 ft Jerome Kerr — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +29° · 250 ft Vincent Crader — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 315 ft Deylin Fishbach — double_play · EV 77 mph · LA -16° · 73 ft Ramón Navarro — single · EV 113 mph · LA -5° · 107 ft Vincent Crader — fly_out · EV 107 mph · LA +35° · 428 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 8 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Zaimir Schloss — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +20° · 158 ft Korey Flowers — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA -1° · 85 ft Kristian Alison — double · EV 91 mph · LA +17° · 181 ft Alastair Roy — single · EV 85 mph · LA +22° · 202 ft Arkie Rubin — single · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Kreigh Mateer — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 118 ft Rill Kautz — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 105 ft Shawqi Maciejczak — single · EV 79 mph · LA -1° · 75 ft Geoff Michulka — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +16° · 169 ft Dyllan Ison — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 89 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 100 ft Korey Flowers — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA +6° · 54 ft Alastair Roy — single · EV 74 mph · LA +18° · 130 ft Arkie Rubin — single · EV 92 mph · LA -4° · 87 ft Kreigh Mateer — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Dylan Purchase — single · EV 83 mph · LA -8° · 79 ft Rónald Samudio — single · EV 56 mph · LA +22° · 89 ft Korey Flowers — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA +18° · 109 ft Rónald Samudio — double · EV 109 mph · LA +18° · 275 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
76% deserve-to-win  ·  11.9 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -5.9 vs expected
contact: 17.8 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-6.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 3 CS (-2.0 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Vincent Crader 107 / +35° Center Out 2.9 → 0 -2.88
Hugo Campos 101 / +43° Center Out 2.6 → 0 -2.59
Renaldo Pastore 100 / +25° Oppo Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.67
Vincent Crader 100 / +26° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Deylin Fishbach 100 / +18° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Orioles
24% deserve-to-win  ·  6.7 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +1.3 vs expected
contact: 9.8 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+2.2 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Kristian Alison 91 / +17° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Geoff Michulka 90 / +16° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Arkie Rubin 76 / -10° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Shawqi Maciejczak 79 / -1° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Dylan Purchase 83 / -8° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
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