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Cubs 10, Astros 9                                           2026-09-01 · #1548
at Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Houston                 9      -    9    7    0
Chicago                10      0   10   11    1

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Olsson      cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1  0.000
Moros       lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Patridge    rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Rivas   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Plum        1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Neely       3b ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.500
Thom        c  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.250
Gómez       ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Colón   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Humphreys   2b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-O'Conno ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Wood        p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Morales ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Konig   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Kingsbu ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  g-Takada  ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Henríqu pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Trejo       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Valencia    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   9   7   0   0   0   8   4  13   0   1  0.233
  SB: Konig (7).
  CS: Neely (3).
  HBP: Henríquez (1).
  GIDP: Thom (7).
  a-Singled for Patridge in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Gómez in the 7th.
  c-Singled for Humphreys in the 3rd.
  d-Walked for Wood in the 5th.
  e-Ran for Rivas in the 5th.
  f-Batted for Colón in the 3rd.
  g-Batted in the 5th.
  h-Ran for Morales in the 5th.

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Heinze      c  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
May         3b ......    4   2   2   1   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.500
Myers       cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Shurtleff   2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-McCullo ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Solis       ss ......    4   2   3   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.750
Casey       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Lamas   pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Seol        lf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Kurth   ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Sarkissian  rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Hollowe pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Campaz      p  ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   1  0.250
  e-Segovia ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Conn        j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Schellenger j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32  10  11   6   0   1  10   5   8   0   1  0.344
  2B: Heinze (17), May (14), Solis (1), Seol (5), Campaz (4), McCullough (1).
  HR: May (3), off Wood.
  SB: May (15), Kurth 2 (8).
  CS: Solis (4).
  E: Schellenger (5).
  a-Doubled for Shurtleff in the 9th.
  b-Ran for Casey in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Seol in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Sarkissian in the 3rd.
  e-Walked in the 9th.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wood (L, 2-4) .......     5    4  15%    2    2    2    0    2    1   14    -
Vildoza .............     8    5  19%    2    2    2    2    2    0   32    -
Solaun ..............     7    6  22%    2    2    2    0    0    0   15  2-0
Salzenstein .........     8    6  22%    2    2    2    1    2    0   29  1-1
Schueck .............     8    6  22%    2    2    2    1    3    0   43  1-1
Fenty ...............     1    0   0%    0    0    0    1    0    0    4  2-0

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Campaz ..............     9    7  26%    1    0    0    1    4    0   39    -
Sama ................     7    7  26%    1    2    2    0    4    0   29  2-1
Boatright (W, 0-4) ..     8    6  22%    1    3    3    1    4    0   34  1-1
Miranda .............     6    4  15%    1    4    4    2    1    0   21  2-2
Espinosa ............     3    3  11%    1    0    0    0    0    0   14    -

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wood (Outs 1-4) → Vildoza (Outs 5-9) → Solaun (Outs 10-15) → Salzenstein (Outs 16-21) → Schueck (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Plum (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Humphreys (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Neely (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Gómez (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moros (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Olsson (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Patridge (Outs 1-27)

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Campaz (Outs 1-7) → Sama (Outs 8-14) → Boatright (Outs 15-20) → Miranda (Outs 21-24) → Espinosa (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Casey (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Shurtleff (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | May (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Solis (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Seol (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Myers (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sarkissian (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Cubs (home) batted first; Astros batted second.
  Seconds: CHC o26 (10-0).
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 56°F · Wind calm · Clear · Dry. seed 937208.
  Powerplays: Astros — Takada NF
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.22    Peak faced 2.08
    27 outs left: 1.22
    18 outs left: 1.50
     9 outs left: 2.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 0 Erick May Tomas Heinze (2B) 0–1 —
B 0 Erick May Erick May (HR) 0–2 —
B 8 Yong-soo Seol Eddie Solis (3B) 0–3 —
B 8 Yong-soo Seol Maurice Hollowell (2B) 0–4 —
B 10 Bryce Shurtleff Eddie Solis (3B) 0–5 —
B 12 Tomas Heinze Wyatt Conn (3B) 0–6 —
B 15 Davion Kurth Erick May (3B) 0–7 —
B 16 Eddie Solis Davion Kurth (3B) 0–8 —
B 20 Isaiah Campaz Floyd Myers (1B) 0–9 —
B 25 Josh McCullough Víctor Lamas (3B) 0–10 —
T 7 Dante O'Connor Rubén Colón (3B) 1–10 1.50
T 7 Dante O'Connor Korey Humphreys (2B) 2–10 1.35
T 14 Masamichi Takada Mardy Wood (3B) 3–10 1.85
T 16 Iapani Thom Cedrick Konig (3B) 4–10 1.91
T 16 Van Neely Angel Henríquez (3B) 5–10 1.64
T 21 Masamichi Takada Iapani Thom (3B) 6–10 2.50
T 21 Marcos Kingsbury Van Neely (3B) 7–10 2.00
T 22 Iapani Thom Angel Henríquez (3B) 8–10 1.80
T 23 Benicio Trejo Masamichi Takada (3B) 9–10 1.50
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.22
Peak faced 2.08
27 outs left 1.22
18 outs left 1.50
9 outs left 2.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 311' · CF 428' · RF 340' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Crescent Grandstand
Astros — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
311' 428' 340' Butch Patridge — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -4° · 50 ft Mirko Moros — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +10° · 87 ft Iapani Thom — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +47° · 253 ft Korey Humphreys — single · EV 73 mph · LA +20° · 139 ft Dante O'Connor — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 113 ft Scoville Rivas — single · EV 73 mph · LA -14° · 69 ft Masamichi Takada — error · EV 54 mph · LA -3° · 52 ft Benicio Trejo — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Iapani Thom — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA +1° · 57 ft Mirko Moros — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +40° · 228 ft Iapani Thom — error · EV 52 mph · LA -13° · 49 ft Iapani Thom — single · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Van Neely — single · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 73 ft
Cubs — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 3 1B · 6 XBH · 1 HR
311' 428' 340' Tomas Heinze — double · EV 96 mph · LA +17° · 211 ft Erick May — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +31° · 433 ft Floyd Myers — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA -7° · 93 ft Eddie Solis — single · EV 85 mph · LA -2° · 81 ft Douglas Casey — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -11° · 84 ft Wyatt Conn — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA -15° · 83 ft Bryce Shurtleff — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +34° · 371 ft Davion Kurth — single · EV 110 mph · LA +19° · 292 ft Víctor Lamas — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +16° · 125 ft Josh McCullough — double · EV 119 mph · LA +21° · 379 ft Yong-soo Seol — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 167 ft Eddie Solis — single · EV 80 mph · LA -14° · 76 ft Floyd Myers — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +12° · 114 ft Erick May — double · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 243 ft Tomas Heinze — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +39° · 304 ft Isaiah Campaz — fly_out · EV 108 mph · LA +23° · 337 ft Davion Kurth — fly_out · EV 113 mph · LA +26° · 397 ft Eddie Solis — double · EV 119 mph · LA +10° · 197 ft Tomas Heinze — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 348 ft Isaiah Campaz — double · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 247 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
2% deserve-to-win  ·  1.8 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +7.2 vs expected
contact: 3.3 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+1.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Van Neely 76 / -2° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Scoville Rivas 73 / -14° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Iapani Thom 76 / +3° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Mirko Moros 80 / +10° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Dante O'Connor 76 / +15° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Cubs
98% deserve-to-win  ·  14.1 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  -4.1 vs expected
contact: 24.3 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 19.0 (-5.3 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 1 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Davion Kurth 113 / +26° Oppo Out 2.9 → 0 -2.93
Bryce Shurtleff 100 / +34° Oppo Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Erick May 111 / +31° Center Home Run 2.2 → 4 +1.75
Isaiah Campaz 108 / +23° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.72
Tomas Heinze 100 / +30° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
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