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Brewers 17, Stars 1                                         2026-09-01 · #1549
at Neviaser Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Milwaukee              17   17   11    0
Nashville               1    1    2    1

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mesidor     c  ......    5   4   4   1   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.800
Williams    ss ......    5   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Irving      lf ......    4   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.250
Espinoza    3b ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   1   0  0.250
Edwards     2b ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   2   2   1   0   0  0.333
Yani        cf ......    5   2   2   1   0   1   5   0   3   0   0  0.400
Kaplan      1b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Sanchez     rf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Palacio     p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   2   1   2   0   0  0.333
  a-Fossati ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  37  17  11   4   0   2  15   6  15   1   0  0.297
  2B: Mesidor (39), Irving (55), Edwards (20), Yani (19).
  HR: Mesidor (20), off Scotti; Yani (9), off Singletary.
  SB: Mesidor (11).
  GIDP: Fossati (1).
  a-Batted in the 5th.

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gayton      cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Spence  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gaubert     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Burani      2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Karouani    1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cooper      lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Hansen      rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Boattin     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Caballero   c  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Falcao      p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  b-Fusano  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   1   2   0   0   0   1   2  11   0   0  0.077
  SB: Gayton (2), Caballero 2 (7).
  E: Gaubert (4).
  GIDP: Boattin (4).
  GITP: Cooper (2).
  a-Ran for Gayton in the 6th.
  b-Batted in the 6th.

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Palacio .............     8    7  26%    0    0    0    0    3    0   24    -
Hamdy ...............     7    6  22%    1    0    0    1    2    0   26  1-0
Kossmann ............     7    7  26%    1    1    1    1    2    0   25  2-1
Cortizo (W, 14-4) ...     7    7  26%    0    0    0    0    5    0   29  1-0

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Falcao ..............     9    6  22%    2    2    2    2    5    0   39    -
Langenfeld ..........     7    2   7%    3    3    1    1    2    0   28  1-1
Cubas ...............     7    6  22%    1    2    2    0    4    0   29  3-2
Singletary (L, 0-2) .     7    6  22%    1    3    3    1    3    1   26  2-2
Scotti ..............     7    3  11%    3    4    1    0    1    1   16  1-1
Faríñez .............     6    4  15%    1    3    3    2    0    0   23  1-1

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Palacio (Outs 1-7) → Hamdy (Outs 8-13) → Kossmann (Outs 14-20) → Cortizo (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mesidor (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kaplan (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Edwards (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Espinoza (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Williams (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Irving (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Yani (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sanchez (Outs 1-27)

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Falcao (Outs 1-6) → Langenfeld (Outs 7-8) → Cubas (Outs 9-14) → Singletary (Outs 15-20) → Scotti (Outs 21-23) → Faríñez (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Caballero (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Karouani (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Burani (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Boattin (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Gaubert (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Hansen (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Stars (home) batted second; Brewers batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 64°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 217912.
  Powerplays: Stars — Spence NF (O8)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.00    Peak faced 17.00
    27 outs left: 2.00
    18 outs left: 3.00
     9 outs left: 6.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 2 Daniel Edwards Stan Mesidor (3B) 1–0 —
T 4 Steven Kaplan Clifford Irving (3B) 2–0 —
T 7 Clifford Irving Mitch Sanchez (3B) 3–0 —
T 7 Andres Espinoza Stan Mesidor (3B) 4–0 —
T 8 Steven Kaplan Clifford Irving (3B) 5–0 —
T 9 Modesto Palacio Andres Espinoza (3B) 6–0 —
T 9 Modesto Palacio Daniel Edwards (2B) 7–0 —
T 14 Graydon Yani Steven Kaplan (3B) 8–0 —
T 14 Graydon Yani Modesto Palacio (1B) 9–0 —
T 14 Graydon Yani Graydon Yani (HR) 10–0 —
T 21 Daniel Edwards Graydon Yani (3B) 11–0 —
T 23 Stan Mesidor Daniel Edwards (3B) 12–0 —
T 23 Stan Mesidor Jesse Williams (1B) 13–0 —
T 23 Stan Mesidor Stan Mesidor (HR) 14–0 —
T 25 Daniel Edwards Stan Mesidor (3B) 15–0 —
T 25 Graydon Yani Jesse Williams (3B) 16–0 —
T 25 Graydon Yani Andres Espinoza (2B) 17–0 —
B 19 Pepe Boattin Tony Caballero (3B) 17–1 6.38
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.00
Peak faced 17.00
27 outs left 2.00
18 outs left 3.00
9 outs left 6.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Neviaser Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 279' · CF 373' · RF 278' · 12' wall). The Bandbox.
Brewers — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 5 1B · 4 XBH · 2 HR
279' 373' 278' Stan Mesidor — double · EV 90 mph · LA +31° · 287 ft Andres Espinoza — single · EV 77 mph · LA +6° · 74 ft Clifford Irving — double · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 262 ft Mitch Sanchez — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +33° · 238 ft Stan Mesidor — single · EV 92 mph · LA +24° · 251 ft Andres Espinoza — error · EV 78 mph · LA -12° · 74 ft Steven Kaplan — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 142 ft Modesto Palacio — single · EV 76 mph · LA +31° · 202 ft Alan Fossati — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +28° · 283 ft Graydon Yani — hr · EV 92 mph · LA +43° · 338 ft Mitch Sanchez — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +27° · 193 ft Daniel Edwards — double · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 155 ft Clifford Irving — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Alan Fossati — double_play · EV 62 mph · LA -6° · 59 ft Andres Espinoza — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +8° · 75 ft Jesse Williams — error · EV 78 mph · LA +13° · 107 ft Stan Mesidor — hr · EV 87 mph · LA +39° · 298 ft Clifford Irving — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 246 ft Stan Mesidor — single · EV 79 mph · LA +12° · 105 ft Jesse Williams — fielders_choice · EV 65 mph · LA -5° · 62 ft Graydon Yani — double · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 323 ft
Stars — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
279' 373' 278' Khosilot El Karouani — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA -8° · 63 ft Pepe Boattin — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +33° · 212 ft Jaime Gaubert — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -14° · 60 ft Edwin Gayton — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 188 ft Tony Caballero — error · EV 55 mph · LA -8° · 52 ft Tony Caballero — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft Justo Burani — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +32° · 97 ft Edwin Gayton — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 107 ft Pepe Boattin — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 133 ft Jaime Gaubert — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 68 ft Bruno Cooper — triple_play · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Bradley Hansen — single · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 129 ft Pepe Boattin — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -24° · 61 ft Tony Caballero — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +4° · 49 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brewers
86% deserve-to-win  ·  6.9 expected runs
actual 17 runs  ·  +10.1 vs expected
contact: 10.8 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 21.0 (+10.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Stan Mesidor 87 / +39° Pull Home Run 0.4 → 4 +3.56
Graydon Yani 92 / +43° Oppo Home Run 1.2 → 4 +2.82
Stan Mesidor 90 / +31° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Clifford Irving 92 / +25° Oppo Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Daniel Edwards 92 / +14° Oppo Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Stars
14% deserve-to-win  ·  2.8 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -1.8 vs expected
contact: 3.8 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-1.8 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Pepe Boattin 92 / +12° Pull Double Play 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Edwin Gayton 76 / +14° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Jaime Gaubert 76 / +8° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Bruno Cooper 76 / +7° Pull Triple Play 0.3 → 0 -0.25
Tony Caballero 76 / -8° Center Out 0.2 → 0 -0.23
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