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Beavers 1, Padres 0                                         2026-09-01 · #1554
at The Oval
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                        1    R    H    E
San Diego               0    0    4    1
Portland                1    1    3    0

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Wilcox      p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Lettiere    c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Atehortua   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Gleeson ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Andrade     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Alemu       3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Staten      ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
MacCracken  2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Susnjar     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fernández   lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Schwing ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Deery   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cleveland   j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   0   4   0   0   0   0   3  15   0   0  0.148
  E: MacCracken (9).
  GIDP: Atehortua (12).
  a-Batted for Atehortua in the 6th.
  b-Singled in the 6th.
  c-Ran for Schwinger in the 7th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vahaly      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Turenne     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Harper  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fuenzalida  lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Guerra      cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Hydrick     2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Aktaş       3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Holzworth   1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Waston  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Zamora      c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Henríquez   p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Clement ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Waters  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Okey    pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Velazquez   j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Redmayne    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   1   3   0   0   0   0   1  10   0   0  0.111
  CS: Okey (9).
  HBP: Hydrick (1).
  GIDP: Harper (9), Aktaş (11), Zamora (4).
  a-Batted for Turenne in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Holzworth in the 4th.
  c-Struck out in the 7th.
  d-Grounded out in the 8th.
  e-Ran for Waters in the 8th.

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wilcox ..............     9    9  33%    1    0    0    0    4    0   32    -
Spoelstra ...........     7    7  26%    1    0    0    0    1    0   30    -
Molin ...............     8    7  26%    0    0    0    0    5    0   32    -
Mori (L, 1-3) .......     5    3  11%    1    1    1    1    0    0   16  1-0

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Henríquez ...........     9    8  30%    3    0    0    0    4    0   33    -
Moulton (W, 3-12) ...     7    7  26%    0    0    0    0    5    0   23  1-0
Hsiung ..............     7    7  26%    1    0    0    1    2    0   27  1-0
Agunloye ............     7    5  19%    0    0    0    2    4    0   23  1-0

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-26)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wilcox (Outs 1-9) → Spoelstra (Outs 10-16) → Molin (Outs 17-23) → Mori (Outs 24-26)
CATCHER (C)       | Lettiere (Outs 1-26)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-26)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-26)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alemu (Outs 1-26)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Staten (Outs 1-26)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-26)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Andrade (Outs 1-26)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Susnjar (Outs 1-26)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Henríquez (Outs 1-8) → Moulton (Outs 9-15) → Hsiung (Outs 16-22) → Agunloye (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Zamora (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Hydrick (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Aktaş (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guerra (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Turenne (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted second; Padres batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 85°F · Wind cross · Clear · Humid. seed 125945.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.11    Peak faced 3.00
    27 outs left: 0.11
    18 outs left: 0.17
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 26 Jaime Fuenzalida Wilmer Velazquez (3B) 0–1 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.11
Peak faced 3.00
27 outs left 0.11
18 outs left 0.17
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Padres — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Bertram Wilcox — single · EV 76 mph · LA +25° · 177 ft Reed Lettiere — single · EV 76 mph · LA -16° · 72 ft Keshav Atehortua — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -23° · 49 ft Haxzel Andrade — fielders_choice · EV 53 mph · LA -11° · 50 ft Israel Fernández — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 132 ft Cary Schwinger — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 131 ft Kreigh Susnjar — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 197 ft Haxzel Andrade — line_out · EV 53 mph · LA +14° · 60 ft Bertram Wilcox — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 202 ft Reed Lettiere — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 194 ft Kreigh Susnjar — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +31° · 95 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Francisco Vahaly — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +38° · 105 ft Levar De Turenne — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +39° · 106 ft Holcombe Hydrick — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +8° · 87 ft Dawood Aktaş — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 134 ft Donis Zamora — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +1° · 49 ft Wilmer Velazquez — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +2° · 73 ft Hector Waters — error · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 170 ft Agustín Waston — fielders_choice · EV 61 mph · LA -1° · 58 ft Donis Zamora — fly_out · EV 55 mph · LA +33° · 111 ft Aaron Holzworth — single · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 145 ft Dawood Aktaş — double_play · EV 63 mph · LA +5° · 60 ft Holcombe Hydrick — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 112 ft Yadier Guerra — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA +17° · 64 ft Francisco Vahaly — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 85 ft Wilmer Velazquez — fielders_choice · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Gabriel Harper — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Yadier Guerra — single · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Padres
45% deserve-to-win  ·  1.6 expected runs
actual 0 runs  ·  -1.6 vs expected
contact: 3.4 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (+0.6 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Kreigh Susnjar 92 / +18° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Bertram Wilcox 76 / +25° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Reed Lettiere 76 / -16° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Israel Fernández 76 / +17° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Cary Schwinger 76 / +17° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Beavers
55% deserve-to-win  ·  1.8 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 5.0 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-2.0 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yadier Guerra 76 / +7° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Hector Waters 76 / +24° Center Reached on Error 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Holcombe Hydrick 76 / +14° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Francisco Vahaly 76 / +11° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Dawood Aktaş 76 / +18° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
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