==============================================================================
Tigers 5, Reds 4                                            2026-09-01 · #1553
at Kuvvatov Bowl
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Cincinnati              4    4    4    0
Detroit                 5    5    3    1

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Post        p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Goodwin ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Tsoubanos   lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Subhash     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Murakami    1b ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.667
Suarez      rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ribera      2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Levy        cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Acosta      c  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  b-Villalo ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Roy         3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Morejón pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-David   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Cox     pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Bacca   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Warwick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Patrick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   4   4   2   0   0   4   4  14   0   0  0.143
  2B: Murakami (15), Acosta (7).
  CS: Murakami (15).
  GIDP: Suarez (9).
  Squeeze: Cox.
  a-Grounded out for Post in the 9th.
  b-Singled for Acosta in the 9th.
  c-Ran for Roy in the 3rd.
  d-Walked for Morejón in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for David in the 3rd.
  f-Ran for Cox in the 7th.

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Whoriskey   2b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Cotzuma pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Amigo       cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Delatte     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Grimaldo    lf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Zheng       rf ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Marion      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Day         3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Acebo   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Lutmer      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
McDuffie    p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
  c-Borden  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Takuma  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Massey      j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   1   .000
Soldan      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  19   5   3   1   0   0   4   5   7   0   2  0.158
  2B: Whoriskey (9).
  CS: Delatte (20).
  E: Whoriskey (7).
  HBP: Borden (1), Grimaldo (2).
  GIDP: Delatte (5), Grimaldo (3).
  Squeeze: Massey (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Whoriskey in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Day in the 3rd.
  c-Ran in the 7th.
  d-Struck out in the 5th.

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Post ................     8    7  26%    1    1    1    2    2    0   25    -
Agnew (L, 10-13) ....     7    5  19%    2    2    2    1    2    0   21  2-2
Xargay ..............     7    6  22%    0    1    1    2    2    0   29  2-1
Gullickson ..........     3    3  11%    0    1    1    0    1    0   15  2-0

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
McDuffie ............     9    7  26%    1    0    0    2    4    0   43    -
Malin ...............     8    7  26%    1    2    2    0    5    0   28  3-2
Falfán ..............     7    7  26%    1    2    2    1    2    0   19  2-0
Marjan (W, 4-0) .....     6    6  22%    1    0    0    1    3    0   28  1-0

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-21)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Post (Outs 1-7) → Agnew (Outs 8-12) → Xargay (Outs 13-18) → Gullickson (Outs 19-21)
CATCHER (C)       | Acosta (Outs 1-21)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-21)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ribera (Outs 1-21)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Roy (Outs 1-21)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-21)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-21)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Levy (Outs 1-21)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Suarez (Outs 1-21)

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | McDuffie (Outs 1-7) → Malin (Outs 8-14) → Falfán (Outs 15-21) → Marjan (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Lutmer (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Marion (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Whoriskey (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Day (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Delatte (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Grimaldo (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Amigo (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Zheng (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Tigers (home) batted second; Reds batted first.
  First pitch 7:35 PM CT. Weather: 43°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 173939.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 0.67
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 11 Emmanuel Murakami Johnny Acosta (3B) 1–0 —
T 11 Emmanuel Murakami Dariel Morejón (2B) 2–0 —
T 19 Carter Suarez Abdiel Bacca (3B) 3–0 —
T 21 Emmanuel Murakami Emmanuel Murakami (3B) 4–0 —
B 3 Karl Marion Jon Grimaldo (2B) 4–1 0.50
B 8 Thai-Son Whoriskey Zixuan Zheng (3B) 4–2 0.47
B 10 Zixuan Zheng Raymond Acebo (3B) 4–3 0.35
B 18 Jon Grimaldo Yimmi Cotzumalguapa (3B) 4–4 0.33
B 20 Noah Massey Trevor Borden (3B) 4–5 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 0.67
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kuvvatov Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 307' · CF 431' · RF 353' · 43' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Reds — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
307' 431' 353' Wall 43' Felix Ribera — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA +0° · 70 ft Jackson Levy — error · EV 96 mph · LA +7° · 92 ft Johnny Acosta — double · EV 100 mph · LA +41° · 396 ft Shelby Warwick — fly_out · EV 108 mph · LA +33° · 432 ft Devron Villalobos — single · EV 72 mph · LA -4° · 69 ft Emmanuel Murakami — single · EV 86 mph · LA +25° · 227 ft Zachary Subhash — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +45° · 271 ft George Post — fly_out · EV 71 mph · LA +32° · 183 ft Carter Suarez — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -18° · 72 ft Emmanuel Murakami — double · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 297 ft
Tigers — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
307' 431' 353' Wall 43' Zixuan Zheng — single · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 166 ft Karl Marion — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA +21° · 104 ft Jon Grimaldo — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA +1° · 55 ft Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA +4° · 68 ft Eloy Amigo — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -8° · 49 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — double · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 184 ft Zixuan Zheng — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 134 ft Aleksandar Delatte — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -8° · 49 ft Eloy Amigo — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 90 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Reds
58% deserve-to-win  ·  3.9 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +0.1 vs expected
contact: 9.8 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-3.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Shelby Warwick 108 / +33° Oppo Out 3.4 → 0 -3.42
Devron Villalobos 72 / -4° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Zachary Subhash 82 / +45° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.68
Emmanuel Murakami 100 / +24° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.67
Emmanuel Murakami 86 / +25° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.62
Tigers
42% deserve-to-win  ·  3.3 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +1.7 vs expected
contact: 3.4 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (+0.6 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Thai-Son Whoriskey 92 / +16° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Eloy Amigo 76 / +11° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Zixuan Zheng 76 / +23° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Zixuan Zheng 76 / +18° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Karl Marion 62 / +21° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.42
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