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Canaries 19, Orioles 5                                      2026-09-01 · #1552
at Rudy Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
New Jersey             19      0   19   15    0
Baltimore               5      -    5    6    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
Pastore     c  ......    5   3   2   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.400
Kerr        rf ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.667
  a-Richey  pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Campos      ss ......    3   3   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.333
Waidner     p  ......    5   1   2   1   0   0   4   0   0   0   0  0.400
Cordero     lf ......    4   1   2   2   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.500
Fishbach    1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Navarro     cf ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Lacava      3b ......    5   3   2   1   0   1   4   1   1   0   0  0.400
  b-Nachand ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  37  19  15   7   0   2  18   7   5   0   0  0.405
  2B: Kramer (45), Kerr (31), Campos (16), Waidner (1), Cordero 2 (38), Lacava (25).
  HR: Pastore (5), off Shaffer; Lacava (9), off Foxworth.
  SB: Kerr 2 (11).
  CS: Waidner (1).
  HBP: Navarro 2 (4).
  a-Ran for Kerr in the 6th.
  b-Batted in the 4th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Schloss     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Kautz   ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Samudio     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Shaffer     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Foust       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Stokke      c  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.500
Alison      1b ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Flowers     rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Sigourney   2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Barba   pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Purchase    lf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
  c-Maciejc ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Mateer  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  26   5   6   3   0   0   5   5  11   0   0  0.231
  2B: Stokke (4), Alison (12), Purchase (17).
  SB: Sigourney (15).
  a-Batted for Schloss in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Sigourney in the 6th.
  c-Grounded out in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Maciejczak in the 7th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Waidner .............     9    9  33%    2    0    0    0    4    0   33    -
Tesfaye (W, 10-1) ...     7    6  22%    0    0    0    2    4    0   34    -
Rico ................     7    5  19%    2    3    3    1    2    0   38  2-0
Bauman ..............     7    5  19%    2    2    2    2    2    0   22  1-1
Junior ..............     1    2   7%    0    0    0    0    0    0    2  1-0

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Shaffer .............     5    2   7%    2    3    2    1    0    1   21    -
Solo ................     7    5  19%    1    2    2    1    1    0   20  1-1
Wayar (L, 9-5) ......     7    3  11%    4    4    4    1    0    0   28  1-1
Nealon ..............     7    3  11%    3    3    3    2    0    0   38  1-1
Chandronnait ........     7    6  22%    0    1    1    1    1    0   20  2-0
Foxworth ............     7    5  19%    1    4    4    1    2    1   24  2-2
Kautz ...............     6    3  11%    4    2    2    0    1    0   27  1-1

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Waidner (Outs 1-9) → Tesfaye (Outs 10-15) → Rico (Outs 16-20) → Bauman (Outs 21-25) → Junior (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Campos (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Shaffer (Outs 1-2) → Solo (Outs 3-7) → Wayar (Outs 8-10) → Nealon (Outs 11-13) → Chandronnait (Outs 14-19) → Foxworth (Outs 20-24) → Kautz (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Stokke (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Purchase (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Schloss (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Flowers (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted second; Canaries batted first.
  Seconds: NJC o26 (19-0).
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 84°F · Wind cross · Overcast · Light rain · Humid. seed 674011.
  Walk-Back runs: off Shaffer 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.22    Peak faced 15.00
    27 outs left: 2.22
    18 outs left: 3.33
     9 outs left: 6.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 0 Renaldo Pastore Andrea Kramer (1B) 1–0 —
T 0 Renaldo Pastore Renaldo Pastore (HR) 2–0 —
T 0 Jerome Kerr Renaldo Pastore (3B) 3–0 —
T 1 Dwight Waidner Jerome Kerr (3B) 4–0 —
T 5 Roberto Lacava Roberto Lacava (1B) 5–0 —
T 7 Grant Cordero Roberto Lacava (2B) 6–0 —
T 7 Dwight Waidner Grant Cordero (2B) 7–0 —
T 9 Andrea Kramer Jerome Kerr (3B) 8–0 —
T 9 Andrea Kramer Renaldo Pastore (1B) 9–0 —
T 9 Ramón Navarro Andrea Kramer (2B) 10–0 —
T 12 Dwight Waidner Ramón Navarro (3B) 11–0 —
T 12 Jerome Kerr Dwight Waidner (2B) 12–0 —
T 17 Dwight Waidner Hugo Campos (3B) 13–0 —
T 20 Roberto Lacava Welby Richey (3B) 14–0 —
T 21 Roberto Lacava Hugo Campos (3B) 15–0 —
T 21 Roberto Lacava Levar Nachand (2B) 16–0 —
T 21 Roberto Lacava Roberto Lacava (HR) 17–0 —
T 23 Grant Cordero Ramón Navarro (1B) 18–0 —
T 25 Welby Richey Hugo Campos (2B) 19–0 —
B 19 Maciek Stokke Kreigh Mateer (2B) 19–1 7.12
B 19 Maciek Stokke Rill Kautz (1B) 19–2 6.75
B 19 Kristian Alison Maciek Stokke (3B) 19–3 6.38
B 22 Dylan Purchase Kristian Alison (2B) 19–4 9.60
B 23 Ulises Barba Dylan Purchase (2B) 19–5 11.25
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.22
Peak faced 15.00
27 outs left 2.22
18 outs left 3.33
9 outs left 6.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Canaries — Batted Balls
29 BIP· 6 1B · 7 XBH · 2 HR
357' 498' 341' Renaldo Pastore — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +43° · 480 ft Jerome Kerr — double · EV 96 mph · LA +22° · 257 ft Dwight Waidner — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 130 ft Deylin Fishbach — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 270 ft Roberto Lacava — fielders_choice · EV 80 mph · LA -19° · 76 ft Grant Cordero — double · EV 100 mph · LA +37° · 383 ft Andrea Kramer — double · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 268 ft Welby Richey — single · EV 85 mph · LA +8° · 81 ft Roberto Lacava — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 185 ft Deylin Fishbach — fly_out · EV 117 mph · LA +28° · 450 ft Dwight Waidner — double · EV 103 mph · LA +41° · 424 ft Renaldo Pastore — single · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 128 ft Ramón Navarro — single · EV 94 mph · LA +23° · 248 ft Grant Cordero — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +6° · 80 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 98 mph · LA -0° · 93 ft Andrea Kramer — fly_out · EV 99 mph · LA +35° · 368 ft Levar Nachand — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +36° · 283 ft Dwight Waidner — single · EV 97 mph · LA -23° · 92 ft Renaldo Pastore — fly_out · EV 110 mph · LA +30° · 417 ft Andrea Kramer — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +8° · 67 ft Ramón Navarro — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA -25° · 82 ft Hugo Campos — double · EV 100 mph · LA +38° · 389 ft Renaldo Pastore — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 293 ft Dwight Waidner — fly_out · EV 91 mph · LA +30° · 288 ft Roberto Lacava — hr · EV 105 mph · LA +40° · 432 ft Grant Cordero — double · EV 102 mph · LA +24° · 309 ft Andrea Kramer — single · EV 100 mph · LA +39° · 391 ft Dwight Waidner — fly_out · EV 107 mph · LA +37° · 438 ft Roberto Lacava — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -13° · 72 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Cole Shaffer — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +33° · 247 ft Zaimir Schloss — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +18° · 229 ft Kristian Alison — single · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 287 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — single · EV 92 mph · LA +0° · 87 ft Rill Kautz — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA -8° · 93 ft Shawqi Maciejczak — fielders_choice · EV 99 mph · LA +7° · 94 ft Ulises Barba — single · EV 89 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft Sidney Foust — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA -6° · 88 ft Maciek Stokke — double · EV 119 mph · LA +22° · 401 ft Dylan Purchase — double · EV 96 mph · LA +29° · 312 ft Kristian Alison — double · EV 117 mph · LA +45° · 480 ft Rónald Samudio — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +22° · 214 ft Kristian Alison — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA +5° · 71 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
89% deserve-to-win  ·  23.4 expected runs
actual 19 runs  ·  -4.4 vs expected
contact: 40.5 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 28.0 (-12.5 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Deylin Fishbach 117 / +28° Pull Out 2.9 → 0 -2.93
Dwight Waidner 107 / +37° Center Out 2.9 → 0 -2.88
Renaldo Pastore 110 / +30° Oppo Out 2.2 → 0 -2.25
Andrea Kramer 99 / +35° Center Out 1.5 → 0 -1.45
Deylin Fishbach 100 / +21° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Orioles
11% deserve-to-win  ·  8.0 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -3.0 vs expected
contact: 12.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-3.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Kristian Alison 117 / +45° Center Double 3.6 → 2 -1.58
Zaimir Schloss 98 / +18° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Dylan Purchase 96 / +29° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Rónald Samudio 88 / +22° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Ulises Barba 89 / -6° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
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