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Orioles 6, Canaries 5                                       2026-09-02 · #1559
at Rudy Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
New Jersey              5      0    5    4    0
Baltimore               6      0    6    5    2

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Brickhandle 1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Kramer      2b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Richey  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Cordero     lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Pastore     c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kerr        rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Campos      ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Fishbach    3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.000
Navarro     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Morriso pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Bramblett   p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Nachand ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Conway  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Hollenb pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Savides ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  g-Lacava  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Woodall     j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  29   5   4   1   0   0   4   5  12   0   0  0.138
  2B: Kramer (46).
  SB: Morrison (6).
  GIDP: Nachand 2 (4).
  a-Ran for Kramer in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Navarro in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Bramblett in the 7th.
  d-Grounded out for Morrison in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Conway in the 3rd.
  f-Batted in the 5th.
  g-Ran in the 5th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Foust       ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Samudio     3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ison        lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Schloss pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Alison      1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Maciejczak  cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Mateer  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Barba       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Stokke      c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.333
Sigourney   2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Michulk pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Andrade     p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Royal   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Purchas ph ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Rubin       j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Thompson    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   6   5   2   0   0   6   3   9   0   0  0.179
  2B: Stokke (5), Rubin (9).
  CS: Foust (8), Michulka (8).
  E: Foust (12), Thompson (8).
  HBP: Maciejczak (2), Sigourney (8).
  a-Ran for Ison in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Maciejczak in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Sigourney in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Andrade in the 4th.
  e-Walked for Royal in the 6th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Bramblett ...........     9    9   36  4.0    0    0    0    0    6    0    -
Thom ................     8    4   26  3.2    3    2    2    0    0    0    -
Israel (L, 10-11) ...     7    4   27  3.9    1    4    4    3    0    0  2-1
Crader ..............     8   10   28  3.5    1    0    0    0    3    0  1-0

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Andrade .............     8    6   32  4.0    1    0    0    1    2    0    -
Sprague .............     7    5   31  4.4    0    3    3    0    2    0  2-1
Storako (W, 2-1) ....     7    6   21  3.0    0    0    0    2    3    0  1-0
Campos ..............     8    6   22  2.8    2    1    1    2    3    0  2-1
Blue (F, 18) ........     4    4   17  4.2    1    1    1    0    2    0  2-0

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bramblett (Outs 1-9) → Thom (Outs 10-13) → Israel (Outs 14-17) → Crader (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Brickhandler (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Campos (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Andrade (Outs 1-6) → Sprague (Outs 7-11) → Storako (Outs 12-17) → Campos (Outs 18-23) → Blue (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Stokke (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Ison (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Maciejczak (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Barba (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted first; Canaries batted second.
  Seconds: NJC o26 (5-6), BAL o26 (6-0).
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 57°F · Wind out · Overcast · Light rain · Dry. seed 667828.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 3.00
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 1.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 10 Maciek Stokke Arkie Rubin (3B) 0–1 —
B 10 Maciek Stokke Jarmere Royal (2B) 0–2 —
B 12 Kristian Alison Geoff Michulka (3B) 0–3 —
B 15 Geoff Michulka Zaimir Schloss (3B) 0–4 —
B 15 Geoff Michulka Sidney Foust (2B) 0–5 —
B 15 Maciek Stokke Dylan Purchase (2B) 0–6 —
T 7 Leo Conway Welby Richey (3B) 1–6 0.90
T 7 Deylin Fishbach Renaldo Pastore (3B) 2–6 0.75
T 9 Grant Cordero Ulises Morrison (3B) 3–6 0.67
T 17 Grant Cordero Tripp Hollenbeck (3B) 4–6 0.90
T 24 Jesse Woodall Roberto Lacava (3B) 5–6 2.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 3.00
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Canaries — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Andrea Kramer — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 275 ft Jam Brickhandler — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +56° · 262 ft Hugo Campos — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +33° · 212 ft Ramón Navarro — error · EV 78 mph · LA +15° · 121 ft Leo Conway — error · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Jesse Woodall — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +22° · 237 ft Renaldo Pastore — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +26° · 290 ft Deylin Fishbach — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +28° · 219 ft Levar Nachand — double_play · EV 64 mph · LA -12° · 61 ft Jam Brickhandler — fly_out · EV 54 mph · LA +34° · 108 ft Julian Savides — single · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 180 ft Jesse Woodall — single · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 149 ft Grant Cordero — single · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 72 ft Levar Nachand — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA -3° · 57 ft Grant Cordero — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -4° · 89 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Rónald Samudio — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +15° · 127 ft Dyllan Ison — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -2° · 87 ft Kristian Alison — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Jhonny Andrade — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA +6° · 92 ft Arkie Rubin — double · EV 107 mph · LA +13° · 208 ft Geoff Michulka — single · EV 80 mph · LA +15° · 126 ft Kreigh Mateer — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -1° · 84 ft Jhonny Andrade — single · EV 83 mph · LA +19° · 172 ft Maciek Stokke — double · EV 87 mph · LA +18° · 183 ft Kristian Alison — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA -6° · 58 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 122 ft Sidney Foust — single · EV 90 mph · LA -9° · 85 ft Zaimir Schloss — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -12° · 95 ft Maciek Stokke — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -12° · 86 ft Kristian Alison — line_out · EV 97 mph · LA +12° · 154 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA +7° · 70 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
39% deserve-to-win  ·  4.4 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 6.3 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-1.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Renaldo Pastore 96 / +26° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Jesse Woodall 93 / +22° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Julian Savides 76 / +26° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.84
Andrea Kramer 100 / +22° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.77
Grant Cordero 76 / +9° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Orioles
61% deserve-to-win  ·  5.5 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +0.5 vs expected
contact: 9.4 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-2.4 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Maciek Stokke 87 / +18° Center Double 0.6 → 2 +1.39
Rónald Samudio 100 / +9° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Kristian Alison 97 / +12° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.09
Arkie Rubin 107 / +13° Pull Double 1.4 → 2 +0.62
Sidney Foust 90 / -9° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
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