==============================================================================
Reds 10, Tigers 7                                           2026-09-02 · #1560
at Kuvvatov Bowl
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Cincinnati             10   10    9    2
Detroit                 7    7    2    0

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suarez      rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Subhash     ss ......    3   3   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Murakami    2b ......    2   2   2   0   0   1   4   0   1   1   0  1.000
Foxworth    p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
David       c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Morejón pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Acosta      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ribera      cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Goodwin ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Tsoubanos   lf ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.667
  c-Cox     pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Roy         3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Levy    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  20  10   9   2   0   2   9   2   8   1   0  0.450
  2B: Subhash (15), Tsoubanos (18).
  HR: Murakami (2), off Keegan; Goodwin (1), off Findley.
  E: Subhash (12), Goodwin (3).
  a-Ran for David in the 3rd.
  b-Homered for Ribera in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Tsoubanos in the 5th.
  d-Struck out for Morejón in the 3rd.

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Amigo       cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Delatte     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Peavy       lf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Grimaldo    2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Zheng       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Cotzuma pr ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kuchiki     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Monroe  pr ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Mora        3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Acebo       1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Whorisk ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  0.500
Okonkwo     p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  d-McMicha pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Takuma  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Lutmer  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Ndiaye  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Massey      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Soldan      j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  27   7   2   0   0   0   5   7  11   1   1  0.074
  CS: Amigo (5).
  GIDP: Delatte (6), Okonkwo (1).
  a-Ran for Zheng in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Kuchiki in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Acebo in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Okonkwo in the 3rd.
  e-Ran in the 5th.
  f-Struck out for McMichael in the 5th.
  g-Ran in the 8th.

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Foxworth ............     8    6   21  2.6    0    1    1    1    2    0    -
Logroño (W, 2-4) ....     7    6   33  4.7    0    1    1    2    1    0  2-0
Kirks ...............     8    6   31  3.9    1    3    1    2    3    0  3-2
Colon ...............     7    6   25  3.6    0    1    1    2    2    0  2-1
Zamora ..............     3    3   11  3.7    0    1    1    0    3    0  2-1

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Okonkwo .............     9    6   38  4.2    2    0    0    1    3    0    -
Keegan (L, 2-6) .....     4    3   16  4.0    2    4    4    0    3    1  3-2
Carson ..............     7    4   32  4.6    3    3    2    1    2    0  1-1
Findley .............     1    0    1  1.0    1    3    3    0    0    1  2-2

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Foxworth (Outs 1-6) → Logroño (Outs 7-12) → Kirks (Outs 13-18) → Colon (Outs 19-24) → Zamora (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | David (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Acosta (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Roy (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Ribera (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Suarez (Outs 1-27)

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-13)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Okonkwo (Outs 1-6) → Keegan (Outs 7-9) → Carson (Outs 10-13)
CATCHER (C)       | Zheng (Outs 1-13)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Acebo (Outs 1-13)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Grimaldo (Outs 1-13)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mora (Outs 1-13)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Delatte (Outs 1-13)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Peavy (Outs 1-13)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Amigo (Outs 1-13)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kuchiki (Outs 1-13)

  Batting order: Tigers (home) batted first; Reds batted second.
  First pitch 5:45 PM CT. Weather: 74°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 641281.
  Walk-Back runs: off Carson 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 1.09
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 4 Raymond Acebo Ed Peavy (3B) 0–1 —
B 8 Benjamín Mora Yimmi Cotzumalguapa (3B) 0–2 —
B 12 Aleksandar Delatte Cooper Monroe (3B) 0–3 —
B 14 Thai-Son Whoriskey Kentaro Takuma (2B) 0–4 —
B 17 Kentaro Takuma Barry McMichael (3B) 0–5 —
B 20 Kenyatta Soldan Cooper Monroe (3B) 0–6 —
B 25 Yimmi Cotzumalguapa Yimmi Cotzumalguapa (3B) 0–7 —
T 9 Emmanuel Murakami Dariel Morejón (3B) 1–7 1.17
T 9 Emmanuel Murakami Carter Suarez (2B) 2–7 1.00
T 9 Emmanuel Murakami Zachary Subhash (3B) 3–7 0.83
T 9 Emmanuel Murakami Emmanuel Murakami (HR) 4–7 0.67
T 9 Carter Suarez Emmanuel Murakami (3B) 5–7 0.50
T 10 Ed Tsoubanos Felix Ribera (2B) 6–7 0.35
T 10 Ed Tsoubanos Zachary Subhash (1B) 7–7 0.18
T 13 Jaxson Goodwin Agustin Cox (3B) 8–7 0.00
T 13 Jaxson Goodwin Zachary Subhash (2B) 9–7 0.00
T 13 Jaxson Goodwin Jaxson Goodwin (HR) 10–7 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 1.09
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kuvvatov Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 307' · CF 431' · RF 353' · 43' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Reds — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 2 HR
307' 431' 353' Wall 43' Travis Foxworth — single · EV 92 mph · LA +21° · 229 ft Bret David — single · EV 95 mph · LA +24° · 267 ft Felix Ribera — line_out · EV 89 mph · LA +23° · 225 ft Zachary Subhash — fielders_choice · EV 69 mph · LA +2° · 65 ft Ed Tsoubanos — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +25° · 237 ft Jaxson Goodwin — hr · EV 115 mph · LA +39° · 480 ft Emmanuel Murakami — single · EV 80 mph · LA +20° · 167 ft Ed Tsoubanos — double · EV 101 mph · LA +30° · 356 ft Emmanuel Murakami — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +45° · 472 ft Ed Tsoubanos — single · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 248 ft Zachary Subhash — double · EV 115 mph · LA +35° · 480 ft
Tigers — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 0 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
307' 431' 353' Wall 43' Aleksandar Delatte — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +58° · 278 ft Ed Peavy — fielders_choice · EV 78 mph · LA -2° · 74 ft Zixuan Zheng — error · EV 61 mph · LA -4° · 58 ft Rocky Kuchiki — error · EV 78 mph · LA +13° · 104 ft Carter Okonkwo — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA -5° · 57 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 108 ft Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — line_out · EV 58 mph · LA +19° · 80 ft Gardnar Ndiaye — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 306 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — error · EV 80 mph · LA +21° · 174 ft Aleksandar Delatte — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +31° · 205 ft Aleksandar Delatte — double_play · EV 58 mph · LA +23° · 98 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Reds
85% deserve-to-win  ·  7.2 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +2.8 vs expected
contact: 17.1 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (-1.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Zachary Subhash 115 / +35° Center Double 3.6 → 2 -1.64
Felix Ribera 89 / +23° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Ed Tsoubanos 88 / +25° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Ed Tsoubanos 101 / +30° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.66
Emmanuel Murakami 80 / +20° Center Stay 0.6 → 1 +0.39
Tigers
15% deserve-to-win  ·  3.0 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +4.0 vs expected
contact: 4.4 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 1.0 (-3.4 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Gardnar Ndiaye 92 / +32° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Thai-Son Whoriskey 76 / -14° Center Stay 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Yimmi Cotzumalguapa 80 / +21° Oppo Reached on Error 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Rocky Kuchiki 78 / +13° Pull Reached on Error 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Thai-Son Whoriskey 76 / +14° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
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