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Panevėžys Bottling Co. 4, Hermosillo BC 3                   2046-05-05 · #1565
at Sarraf Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Hermosillo              3    3    3    0
Panevėžys               4    4    6    0

HERMOSILLO BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Probst      rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Fageros ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Pirela      2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Fleishman   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Gallati pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Corozo      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Lannoy      lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Tang    pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cota        3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Blake   pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Sharipov    ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Profar  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Watling     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Palfrey     p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
  f-Kretsch ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Norris  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Salinas     j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
O'Malley    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Strachan    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  23   3   3   0   0   0   2   7   6   0   1  0.130
  GIDP: Corozo (1), Strachan (1).
  a-Grounded out for Probst in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Fleishman in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Lannoy in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Cota in the 3rd.
  e-Batted for Sharipov in the 5th.
  f-Walked for Strachan in the 6th.
  g-Ran for Kretschman in the 7th.

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO.
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Barten      rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
March       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Lehnhoff    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Eakin       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cunha       lf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
McCullough  ss ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Galvis      2b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Shafie  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hansen-Dent c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Pittman cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Saul        j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Faga        j  ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  23   4   6   0   0   0   4   3   6   0   1  0.261
  GIDP: Lehnhoff (3), Eakin (1).
  a-Grounded out for Galvis in the 5th.
  b-Entered at CF in the 7th.

HERMOSILLO BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Palfrey (L, 6-3) ....    26   20  74%    6    4    4    3    6    0   78    -

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO. PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
March (W, 2-4) ......    30   27 100%    3    3    3    7    6    0   99    -

  Batting order: Panevėžys Bottling Co. (home) batted second; Hermosillo BC batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM. Weather: 73°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 309646.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 19 Warren Salinas Wenhao Tang (3B) 1–0
T 19 Warren Salinas Don Blake (2B) 2–0
T 22 Rafael Pirela Juan Norris (3B) 3–0
B 9 Nicholas Cunha Lex McCullough (3B) 3–1
B 11 Tavierre Saul Júnior Galvis (3B) 3–2
B 16 Gavin March Nicholas Cunha (3B) 3–3
B 20 Lex McCullough Tavierre Saul (3B) 3–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sarraf Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 335' · CF 430' · RF 314' · 41' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill Knothole Gates
Hermosillo BC — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Stuart Fleishman — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 233 ft Fernando de Lannoy — single · EV 52 mph · LA +11° · 60 ft Quincy Probst — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA -11° · 56 ft Warren Salinas — line_out · EV 58 mph · LA +17° · 73 ft Soane Strachan — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA -5° · 57 ft Mekhi Fageros — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 119 ft Wenhao Tang — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -2° · 49 ft Don Blake — single · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 65 ft Rafael Pirela — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -6° · 72 ft Ángel Corozo — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +7° · 49 ft Warren Salinas — single · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 158 ft Ángel Corozo — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -2° · 49 ft
Panevėžys Bottling Co. — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 6 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
335' 430' 314' Wall 41' Nicholas Cunha — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 293 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 110 ft Lex McCullough — single · EV 80 mph · LA +23° · 184 ft Tavierre Saul — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +27° · 329 ft Mackenzie Faga — single · EV 99 mph · LA +6° · 94 ft Kent Eakin — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 75 ft Nicholas Cunha — single · EV 57 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 149 ft Tavierre Saul — single · EV 99 mph · LA +17° · 215 ft Mackenzie Faga — single · EV 77 mph · LA +13° · 102 ft Butch Hansen-Dent — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 92 ft Lex McCullough — single · EV 81 mph · LA +10° · 92 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Hermosillo BC
37% deserve-to-win  ·  3.8 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 4.5 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-1.5 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Stuart Fleishman 92 / +22° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.01
Fernando de Lannoy 52 / +11° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Mekhi Fageros 76 / +16° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.51
Warren Salinas 58 / +17° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.49
Don Blake 76 / +8° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.49
Panevėžys Bottling Co.
63% deserve-to-win  ·  5.0 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.0 vs expected
contact: 8.3 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-2.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tavierre Saul 101 / +27° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.44
Nicholas Cunha 92 / +30° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Nicholas Cunha 57 / +12° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Armondo Lehnhoff 76 / +20° Center Double Play 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Armondo Lehnhoff 76 / +14° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.51
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