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Brewers 28, Braves 1                                        2026-09-05 · #1584
at Bussaglia Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Atlanta                 1    1    3    1
Milwaukee              28   28   19    1

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Saprissa    3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Vargas      rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Chu         ss ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Nilo        cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Alvelo      2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bray        lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Molin       c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Martín      1b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bombito     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Kaloger ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   1   3   0   0   0   1   2   6   0   0  0.111
  CS: Saprissa (6).
  E: Saprissa (1).
  HBP: Molin (3).
  GIDP: Vargas (2), Bray (6).
  Squeeze: Kalogeropoulos.
  a-Grounded out in the 6th.

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mesidor     c  ......    6   3   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.167
Williams    ss ......    6   4   5   5   0   0   8   0   0   0   0  0.833
Irving      lf ......    6   2   2   2   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.333
Espinoza    3b ......    4   6   2   0   0   2   4   2   0   0   0  0.500
Edwards     rf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Yani        cf ......    6   3   4   1   0   0   4   0   2   0   0  0.667
Flores      1b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Trejo       2b ......    4   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   3   0   0  0.250
Palacio     p  ......    4   5   3   0   0   1   3   1   1   0   0  0.750
  a-Fossati ph ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  44  28  19   9   0   4  27   6  12   0   0  0.432
  2B: Williams 5 (39), Irving 2 (57), Yani (21), Trejo (11).
  HR: Mesidor (24), off Buford; Espinoza 2 (10), off Merrill, Ramon-Edwards; Palacio (1), off Merrill.
  E: Trejo (4).
  HBP: Flores (4).
  a-Batted in the 4th.

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Bombito .............     4    0   13  3.2    2    3    3    0    0    0    -
Chourio .............     8    6   33  4.1    2    2    2    1    2    0  1-0
Kyle ................     7    4   33  4.7    2    4    4    1    4    0  2-2
Merrill (L, 2-3) ....     7    3   27  3.9    4    6    5    1    1    2  1-1
Buford ..............     7    3   23  3.3    3    4    2    1    1    1  1-1
Morejón .............     7    4   28  4.0    1    3    3    2    1    0  2-2
Mickens .............     7    5   19  2.7    3    4    4    0    1    0  2-2
Ramon-Edwards .......     3    2   10  3.3    1    2    1    0    2    1    -

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Palacio .............     8    8   31  3.9    1    0    0    0    2    0    -
Hamdy ...............     7    5   22  3.1    1    0    0    1    1    0    -
Kossmann ............     7    6   17  2.4    0    0    0    1    0    0  1-0
Cortizo (W, 15-4) ...     7    8   24  3.4    1    1    1    0    3    0  2-1

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Chourio (Outs 1-6) → Kyle (Outs 7-10) → Merrill (Outs 11-13) → Buford (Outs 14-16) → Morejón (Outs 17-20) → Mickens (Outs 21-25) → Ramon-Edwards (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Molin (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Martín (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Alvelo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saprissa (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Chu (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Bray (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Nilo (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Vargas (Outs 1-27)

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Palacio (Outs 1-8) → Hamdy (Outs 9-13) → Kossmann (Outs 14-19) → Cortizo (Outs 20-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mesidor (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Flores (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Trejo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Espinoza (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Williams (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Irving (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Yani (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Edwards (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Brewers (home) batted first; Braves batted second.
  First pitch 1:30 PM CT. Weather: 56°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 211151.
  Walk-Back runs: off Merrill 1, off Buford 2, off Ramon-Edwards 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 3.22    Peak faced 84.00
    27 outs left: 3.22
    18 outs left: 4.83
     9 outs left: 9.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 0 Jesse Williams Stan Mesidor (1B) 0–1 —
B 0 Clifford Irving Jesse Williams (2B) 0–2 —
B 0 Andres Espinoza Clifford Irving (2B) 0–3 —
B 5 Jesse Williams Graydon Yani (2B) 0–4 —
B 5 Jesse Williams Modesto Palacio (1B) 0–5 —
B 6 Daniel Edwards Jesse Williams (3B) 0–6 —
B 10 Jesse Williams Andres Espinoza (3B) 0–7 —
B 10 Jesse Williams Daniel Edwards (2B) 0–8 —
B 10 Jesse Williams Modesto Palacio (1B) 0–9 —
B 11 Andres Espinoza Jesse Williams (2B) 0–10 —
B 11 Andres Espinoza Andres Espinoza (HR) 0–11 —
B 11 Graydon Yani Andres Espinoza (3B) 0–12 —
B 13 Francis Trejo Alan Fossati (2B) 0–13 —
B 13 Modesto Palacio Francis Trejo (2B) 0–14 —
B 13 Modesto Palacio Modesto Palacio (HR) 0–15 —
B 13 Stan Mesidor Modesto Palacio (3B) 0–16 —
B 13 Stan Mesidor Stan Mesidor (HR) 0–17 —
B 13 Jesse Williams Stan Mesidor (3B) 0–18 —
B 16 Graydon Yani Jesse Williams (2B) 0–19 —
B 17 Stan Mesidor Graydon Yani (3B) 0–20 —
B 19 Clifford Irving Rodolfo Flores (2B) 0–21 —
B 19 Clifford Irving Francis Trejo (1B) 0–22 —
B 20 Graydon Yani Clifford Irving (2B) 0–23 —
B 20 Graydon Yani Andres Espinoza (1B) 0–24 —
B 21 Modesto Palacio Graydon Yani (2B) 0–25 —
B 23 Jesse Williams Modesto Palacio (1B) 0–26 —
B 25 Andres Espinoza Andres Espinoza (HR) 0–27 —
B 26 Graydon Yani Andres Espinoza (3B) 0–28 —
T 23 Todd Chu Joseph Martín (3B) 1–28 21.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 3.22
Peak faced 84.00
27 outs left 3.22
18 outs left 4.83
9 outs left 9.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Bussaglia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 344' · CF 415' · RF 304' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Braves — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
344' 415' 304' Todd Chu — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +39° · 241 ft Mariano Vargas — line_out · EV 62 mph · LA +16° · 82 ft Mirko Alvelo — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -6° · 72 ft Hugo Bray — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -14° · 49 ft Haxzel Saprissa — single · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Lyrik Molin — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +27° · 88 ft Todd Chu — infield_single · EV 52 mph · LA +3° · 49 ft Mariano Vargas — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Oscar Nilo — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -14° · 54 ft Mirko Alvelo — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +33° · 308 ft Haxzel Saprissa — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 100 ft Lyrik Molin — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +10° · 81 ft Joseph Martín — error · EV 52 mph · LA -10° · 49 ft Donovan Bombito — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 155 ft Hugo Bray — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +0° · 49 ft Joseph Martín — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -15° · 54 ft Oscar Nilo — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA -7° · 53 ft Todd Chu — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft Todd Chu — single · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 87 ft Mariano Vargas — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft
Brewers — Batted Balls
26 BIP· 5 1B · 9 XBH · 4 HR
344' 415' 304' Stan Mesidor — error · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 260 ft Jesse Williams — double · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 248 ft Clifford Irving — double · EV 114 mph · LA +12° · 211 ft Andres Espinoza — error · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 135 ft Graydon Yani — single · EV 88 mph · LA +3° · 84 ft Alan Fossati — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 201 ft Stan Mesidor — fly_out · EV 115 mph · LA +13° · 232 ft Jesse Williams — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 233 ft Daniel Edwards — single · EV 86 mph · LA +0° · 81 ft Andres Espinoza — hr · EV 117 mph · LA +28° · 453 ft Modesto Palacio — hr · EV 115 mph · LA +42° · 480 ft Alan Fossati — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 306 ft Jesse Williams — double · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 317 ft Graydon Yani — single · EV 113 mph · LA -19° · 107 ft Francis Trejo — double · EV 98 mph · LA +14° · 182 ft Andres Espinoza — fly_out · EV 112 mph · LA +20° · 323 ft Stan Mesidor — hr · EV 99 mph · LA +39° · 382 ft Jesse Williams — double · EV 97 mph · LA +30° · 321 ft Graydon Yani — single · EV 88 mph · LA -16° · 84 ft Modesto Palacio — single · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 198 ft Andres Espinoza — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +41° · 396 ft Stan Mesidor — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +37° · 298 ft Clifford Irving — double · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 354 ft Graydon Yani — double · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 328 ft Stan Mesidor — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +18° · 182 ft Jesse Williams — double · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 145 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Braves
2% deserve-to-win  ·  2.5 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -1.5 vs expected
contact: 5.7 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-2.7 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mirko Alvelo 92 / +33° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Todd Chu 52 / +3° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Haxzel Saprissa 76 / -7° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Todd Chu 92 / +6° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Donovan Bombito 76 / +21° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Brewers
98% deserve-to-win  ·  19.1 expected runs
actual 28 runs  ·  +8.9 vs expected
contact: 35.7 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 39.0 (+3.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Stan Mesidor 99 / +39° Pull Home Run 1.5 → 4 +2.53
Andres Espinoza 112 / +20° Pull Out 1.7 → 0 -1.72
Stan Mesidor 115 / +13° Oppo Out 1.5 → 0 -1.52
Stan Mesidor 100 / +20° Oppo Reached on Error 1.4 → 0 -1.41
Andres Espinoza 100 / +41° Pull Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.40
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