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Guardians 16, Nationals 11                                  2026-09-05 · #1592
at Cleveland Coliseum
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Washington             11      0   11    9    0
Cleveland              16      0   16   12    0

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Giroud      ss ......    3   4   3   1   0   1   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
Abadía      p  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   1  0.000
Burrows     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Miguelito   lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pastore     2b ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Thompkins   3b ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Cheng       rf ......    4   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Baloy       1b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Fábrega     cf ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.250
  a-Heffner ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31  11   9   2   0   4  11   2  10   0   2  0.290
  2B: Giroud (6), Baloy (4).
  HR: Giroud (3), off Harthan; Thompkins (4), off Fazio; Cheng (2), off Fazio; Fábrega (3), off Williams.
  Squeeze: Burrows (1 RBI).
  a-Grounded out in the 6th.

GUARDIANS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Granberry   2b ......    4   2   2   2   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  0.500
Cabrera     c  ......    5   3   3   1   0   0   4   0   0   0   0  0.600
González    lf ......    4   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.250
Siereveld   cf ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Ardón       1b ......    4   3   1   0   0   1   3   1   1   0   0  0.250
Tanner      rf ......    5   0   3   0   0   0   3   0   1   1   0  0.600
Velez       3b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Mayotte pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Céspedes    ss ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Reemsnyder  p  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.250
  b-Carmona ph ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  36  16  12   4   0   1  16   7   7   1   0  0.333
  2B: Granberry 2 (8), Cabrera (8), González (19).
  HR: Ardón (3), off Clemente.
  HBP: Siereveld (1).
  a-Ran for Velez in the 3rd.
  b-Batted in the 3rd.

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Abadía (L, 9-19) ....    10    4   46  4.6    2    4    4    4    1    0    -
Rico ................     8    5   41  5.1    1    3    3    1    1    0  2-2
Burdisso ............     9    6   34  3.8    4    3    3    0    1    0  2-2
Clemente ............     7    4   22  3.1    3    4    4    0    3    1  1-1
Gilliom .............     7    6   24  3.4    1    2    2    2    1    0  1-1
Victorino ...........     3    2    8  2.7    1    0    0    0    0    0    -

GUARDIANS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Reemsnyder ..........    10    8   38  3.8    1    0    0    1    4    0    -
Harthan .............     7    7   31  4.4    1    2    2    1    2    1  2-0
Galíndez (W, 1-2) ...     7    7   21  3.0    2    1    1    0    3    0  1-1
Williams ............     7    5   26  3.7    2    3    3    0    2    1  1-1
Fazio ...............     3    0    4  1.3    3    5    3    0    0    2  1-1

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Abadía (Outs 1-4) → Rico (Outs 5-9) → Burdisso (Outs 10-15) → Clemente (Outs 16-19) → Gilliom (Outs 20-25) → Victorino (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Baloy (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Giroud (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fábrega (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cheng (Outs 1-27)

GUARDIANS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Reemsnyder (Outs 1-8) → Harthan (Outs 9-15) → Galíndez (Outs 16-22) → Williams (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Cabrera (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Ardón (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Granberry (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Velez (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Céspedes (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | González (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Siereveld (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Tanner (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Guardians (home) batted first; Nationals batted second.
  Seconds: WSN o25 (11-16), CLE o26 (16-0).
  First pitch 2:00 PM ET. Weather: 72°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 297235.
  Walk-Back runs: off Gilliom 1, off Galíndez 1, off Fazio 2.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.89    Peak faced 13.50
    27 outs left: 1.89
    18 outs left: 2.83
     9 outs left: 4.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 1 Júnior Ardón Sekou Cabrera (3B) 0–1 —
B 1 Tony Tanner José González (3B) 0–2 —
B 1 Tony Tanner Marcos Siereveld (2B) 0–3 —
B 1 Tony Tanner Júnior Ardón (3B) 0–4 —
B 3 Whitney Reemsnyder Eddie Velez (3B) 0–5 —
B 8 Sekou Cabrera Tayavek Céspedes (3B) 0–6 —
B 8 Sekou Cabrera Benoit Mayotte (2B) 0–7 —
B 8 Kemari Granberry Marcos Siereveld (2B) 0–8 —
B 8 Kemari Granberry Sekou Cabrera (1B) 0–9 —
B 8 Whitney Reemsnyder Kemari Granberry (2B) 0–10 —
B 14 Kemari Granberry José González (2B) 0–11 —
B 15 Sekou Cabrera Kemari Granberry (3B) 0–12 —
B 17 Júnior Ardón Sekou Cabrera (2B) 0–13 —
B 17 Júnior Ardón Júnior Ardón (HR) 0–14 —
B 18 Boris Carmona Júnior Ardón (3B) 0–15 —
B 20 Sekou Cabrera Boris Carmona (2B) 0–16 —
T 12 Óscar Giroud Frickson Abadía (2B) 1–16 3.20
T 12 Óscar Giroud Óscar Giroud (HR) 2–16 3.00
T 15 Basil Burrows Óscar Giroud (3B) 3–16 3.50
T 21 Kendry Baloy Óscar Giroud (1B) 4–16 6.50
T 21 Isaac Fábrega Kendry Baloy (2B) 5–16 6.00
T 21 Isaac Fábrega Isaac Fábrega (HR) 6–16 5.50
T 25 Damion Thompkins Isaac Fábrega (3B) 7–16 15.00
T 25 Damion Thompkins Damion Thompkins (HR) 8–16 13.50
T 25 Óscar Giroud Damion Thompkins (3B) 9–16 12.00
T 25 Cheng-wei Cheng Óscar Giroud (2B) 10–16 10.50
T 25 Cheng-wei Cheng Cheng-wei Cheng (HR) 11–16 9.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.89
Peak faced 13.50
27 outs left 1.89
18 outs left 2.83
9 outs left 4.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Cleveland Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 315' · CF 410' · RF 349' · 9' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play
Nationals — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 4 HR
315' 410' 349' Basil Burrows — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Marcos Pastore — single · EV 107 mph · LA -3° · 102 ft Óscar Giroud — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Daniel Heffner — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +15° · 155 ft Kendry Baloy — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA +1° · 84 ft Damion Thompkins — line_out · EV 107 mph · LA +12° · 185 ft Marcos Pastore — line_out · EV 104 mph · LA +13° · 188 ft Óscar Giroud — single · EV 86 mph · LA +4° · 82 ft Marcos Pastore — single · EV 74 mph · LA +2° · 71 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +35° · 326 ft Kendry Baloy — double · EV 105 mph · LA +21° · 296 ft Isaac Fábrega — hr · EV 104 mph · LA +41° · 429 ft Óscar Giroud — double · EV 106 mph · LA +25° · 340 ft Damion Thompkins — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +48° · 442 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +48° · 480 ft Kendry Baloy — error · EV 94 mph · LA +2° · 90 ft Isaac Fábrega — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +23° · 171 ft
Guardians — Batted Balls
25 BIP· 7 1B · 4 XBH · 1 HR
315' 410' 349' Sekou Cabrera — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Tony Tanner — single · EV 78 mph · LA -2° · 74 ft Eddie Velez — fielders_choice · EV 87 mph · LA -9° · 82 ft Whitney Reemsnyder — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +7° · 84 ft Júnior Ardón — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +8° · 80 ft Boris Carmona — infield_single · EV 72 mph · LA +4° · 68 ft Benoit Mayotte — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 203 ft Marcos Siereveld — fielders_choice · EV 98 mph · LA +1° · 93 ft Tony Tanner — single · EV 78 mph · LA -13° · 74 ft Whitney Reemsnyder — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +40° · 269 ft Sekou Cabrera — single · EV 73 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Kemari Granberry — double · EV 116 mph · LA +16° · 288 ft José González — double · EV 114 mph · LA +20° · 337 ft Boris Carmona — error · EV 91 mph · LA +8° · 86 ft Benoit Mayotte — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 359 ft Whitney Reemsnyder — single · EV 89 mph · LA +7° · 84 ft Kemari Granberry — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 198 ft Júnior Ardón — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +42° · 480 ft Marcos Siereveld — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft Kemari Granberry — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +7° · 88 ft Sekou Cabrera — double · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 174 ft Whitney Reemsnyder — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -11° · 84 ft Júnior Ardón — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA -0° · 90 ft Sekou Cabrera — single · EV 106 mph · LA -12° · 101 ft Tony Tanner — single · EV 75 mph · LA +19° · 140 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Nationals
33% deserve-to-win  ·  9.3 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +1.7 vs expected
contact: 22.3 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 23.0 (+0.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Damion Thompkins 106 / +48° Oppo Home Run 1.1 → 4 +2.95
Damion Thompkins 107 / +12° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.38
Marcos Pastore 104 / +13° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.38
Cheng-wei Cheng 93 / +35° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Marcos Pastore 74 / +2° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Guardians
67% deserve-to-win  ·  13.4 expected runs
actual 16 runs  ·  +2.6 vs expected
contact: 18.9 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 19.0 (+0.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Benoit Mayotte 100 / +32° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.47
Benoit Mayotte 92 / +19° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Tony Tanner 78 / -2° Pull Stay 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Tony Tanner 78 / -13° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Boris Carmona 72 / +4° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
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