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Royals 4, Cubs 3                                            2026-09-05 · #1591
at Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Kansas City             4    4    3    0
Chicago                 3    3    1    0

ROYALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rosales     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Monson      2b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Sabella     ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fuenzalida  rf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Hackett     p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Graham      lf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Alinen      1b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Talavera    cf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                   6   4   3   1   0   0   4   2   2   0   0  0.500
  2B: Monson (9).


CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cody        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Lamas   pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Santana     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Hollowe pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
May         lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Solis   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Myers       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Shurtleff   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-McCullo ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
O'Flaherty  c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Segovia ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sarkissian  rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Lamas   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Saprissa    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Campaz      p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  g-Casey   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  h-Nealon  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Conn        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Schellenger j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   3   1   0   0   0   2   3  13   0   0  0.038
  GIDP: Conn (5).
  a-Ran for Cody in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Santana in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for May in the 3rd.
  d-Batted for Shurtleff in the 4th.
  e-Struck out for O'Flaherty in the 4th.
  f-Batted for Sarkissian in the 4th.
  g-Singled for Solis in the 3rd.
  h-Grounded out for Schellenger in the 7th.

ROYALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Hackett .............     9    8   34  3.8    0    0    0    1    5    0    -
Zingaro .............     7    5   31  4.4    1    3    3    2    3    0  1-0
Lamar (W, 6-2) ......     7    7   34  4.9    0    0    0    0    2    0    -
Obaldía .............     7    7   24  3.4    0    0    0    0    4    0    -

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Campaz (L, 12-13) ...     6    3   22  3.7    2    4    4    2    2    0    -

ROYALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hackett (Outs 1-8) → Zingaro (Outs 9-13) → Lamar (Outs 14-20) → Obaldía (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | —
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alinen (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Monson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rosales (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Sabella (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Graham (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Talavera (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-27)

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-3)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Campaz (Outs 1-3)
CATCHER (C)       | O'Flaherty (Outs 1-3)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Shurtleff (Outs 1-3)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santana (Outs 1-3)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saprissa (Outs 1-3)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Myers (Outs 1-3)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | May (Outs 1-3)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cody (Outs 1-3)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sarkissian (Outs 1-3)

  Batting order: Cubs (home) batted first; Royals batted second.
  First pitch 7:35 PM CT. Weather: 84°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 184821.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.44
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 8 Douglas Casey Eddie Solis (3B) 0–1 —
B 11 Wyatt Conn Víctor Lamas (3B) 0–2 —
B 11 Wyatt Conn Maurice Hollowell (3B) 0–3 —
T 3 Zach Alinen Jhonder Fuenzalida (2B) 1–3 0.38
T 3 Kael Monson George Graham (3B) 2–3 0.25
T 3 Kael Monson Zach Alinen (2B) 3–3 0.12
T 3 Kael Monson Reinaldo Talavera (1B) 4–3 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.44
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 311' · CF 428' · RF 340' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Crescent Grandstand
Royals — Batted Balls
2 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
311' 428' 340' Zach Alinen — single · EV 87 mph · LA +25° · 231 ft Kael Monson — double · EV 92 mph · LA +37° · 325 ft
Cubs — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 1 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
311' 428' 340' Dudley Cody — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 113 ft Floyd Myers — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +5° · 77 ft Kristian O'Flaherty — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -11° · 49 ft Douglas Casey — single · EV 86 mph · LA +16° · 158 ft Wyatt Conn — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 87 ft Ryan Schellenger — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -6° · 70 ft Phillip Nealon — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +0° · 76 ft Ivan Saprissa — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft Josh McCullough — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA +4° · 61 ft Ivan Saprissa — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +22° · 195 ft Isaiah Campaz — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +34° · 271 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Royals
24% deserve-to-win  ·  1.2 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +2.8 vs expected
contact: 1.3 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (+1.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Kael Monson 92 / +37° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Zach Alinen 87 / +25° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.62
Cubs
76% deserve-to-win  ·  2.1 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +0.9 vs expected
contact: 4.1 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 1.0 (-3.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dudley Cody 92 / +10° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Ivan Saprissa 84 / +22° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Isaiah Campaz 85 / +34° Oppo Out 0.4 → 0 -0.44
Wyatt Conn 92 / +6° Pull Double Play 0.4 → 0 -0.41
Douglas Casey 86 / +16° Center Single 0.6 → 1 +0.39
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