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Tigers 4, Reds 3                                            2026-09-05 · #1590
at Kuvvatov Bowl
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Cincinnati              3    3    2    0
Detroit                 4    4    7    0

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Post        p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
David       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Subhash pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Acosta      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pavez       cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Morejón pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ribera      2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Bacca   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Murakami    ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Levy        rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.000
Tsoubanos   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Roy         3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Cox     pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Warwick     j  ......    0   0   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   1   0   .000
Totals                  23   3   2   1   0   0   3   6  10   1   0  0.087
  2B: Warwick (16).
  SB: Murakami (21).
  CS: Bacca (1).
  HBP: Acosta (2), Ribera (6).
  GIDP: Morejón (4).
  a-Ran for David in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Pavez in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Ribera in the 7th.
  d-Ran in the 6th.

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Zheng       ss ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Peavy       rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Monroe  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Marjan      p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Mauigoa     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Whorisk ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Amigo       cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Verón   pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Grimaldo    3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kuchiki     2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Day         c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Lutmer      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-McMicha pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Marion  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Borden  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Massey      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Soldan      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  23   4   7   0   0   0   2   4   7   0   0  0.304
  SB: Marion (7).
  CS: Marion (5).
  GIDP: Lutmer (6).
  a-Ran for Peavy in the 5th.
  b-Walked for Mauigoa in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Amigo in the 5th.
  d-Ran in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Whoriskey in the 5th.
  f-Ran in the 6th.

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Post (L, 9-7) .......     8    8   33  4.1    1    1    1    0    4    0    -
Logroño .............     7    5   34  4.9    3    1    1    1    1    0    -
Colon ...............     7    5   22  3.1    2    1    1    1    2    0  1-0
Celso ...............     4    3   19  4.8    1    1    1    2    0    0  2-1

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Marjan ..............     9    7   42  4.7    0    0    0    2    3    0    -
Malin ...............     8    7   29  3.6    1    2    2    2    2    0  2-0
Falfán ..............     7    5   16  2.3    1    0    0    2    3    0  1-0
Basham (W, 0-1) .....     7    8   27  3.9    0    1    1    0    2    0  2-1

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-21)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Post (Outs 1-8) → Logroño (Outs 9-13) → Colon (Outs 14-18) → Celso (Outs 19-21)
CATCHER (C)       | David (Outs 1-21)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Acosta (Outs 1-21)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ribera (Outs 1-21)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Roy (Outs 1-21)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Murakami (Outs 1-21)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-21)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Pavez (Outs 1-21)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Levy (Outs 1-21)

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Marjan (Outs 1-7) → Malin (Outs 8-14) → Falfán (Outs 15-19) → Basham (Outs 20-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Day (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Lutmer (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kuchiki (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Grimaldo (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Zheng (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mauigoa (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Amigo (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Peavy (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Tigers (home) batted second; Reds batted first.
  First pitch 2:00 PM CT. Weather: 64°F · Wind cross · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 139755.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.67
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 9 Shelby Warwick Dariel Morejón (3B) 1–0 —
T 9 Shelby Warwick Zachary Subhash (1B) 2–0 —
T 21 Jackson Levy Agustin Cox (3B) 3–0 —
B 4 Rocky Kuchiki Zixuan Zheng (3B) 3–1 0.39
B 12 Ed Peavy Barry McMichael (2B) 3–2 0.40
B 18 Youstin Verón Trevor Borden (2B) 3–3 0.33
B 21 Liam Lutmer Youstin Verón (3B) 3–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.67
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kuvvatov Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 307' · CF 431' · RF 353' · 43' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Reds — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
307' 431' 353' Wall 43' Felix Ribera — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -14° · 77 ft Bret David — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA -10° · 86 ft Shelby Warwick — double · EV 99 mph · LA +14° · 183 ft Dariel Morejón — double_play · EV 64 mph · LA +0° · 61 ft Zachary Subhash — infield_single · EV 65 mph · LA -12° · 62 ft George Post — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +6° · 91 ft Adam Roy — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -24° · 82 ft Agustin Cox — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -14° · 67 ft Jackson Levy — fly_out · EV 107 mph · LA +52° · 444 ft Adam Roy — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -11° · 78 ft
Tigers — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 7 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
307' 431' 353' Wall 43' Zixuan Zheng — single · EV 95 mph · LA +12° · 143 ft Jon Grimaldo — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA -4° · 94 ft Kenyatta Soldan — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 337 ft Karl Marion — fielders_choice · EV 67 mph · LA -18° · 64 ft Youstin Verón — single · EV 79 mph · LA +7° · 75 ft Cooper Monroe — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA -28° · 76 ft Tomm Marjan — single · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 150 ft Liam Lutmer — double_play · EV 86 mph · LA -1° · 82 ft Rocky Kuchiki — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +6° · 79 ft Ed Peavy — single · EV 73 mph · LA +18° · 124 ft Eloy Amigo — single · EV 81 mph · LA +4° · 77 ft Zixuan Zheng — single · EV 113 mph · LA +3° · 107 ft Rocky Kuchiki — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 139 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Reds
46% deserve-to-win  ·  4.1 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -1.1 vs expected
contact: 4.5 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-2.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jackson Levy 107 / +52° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.05
Zachary Subhash 65 / -12° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
George Post 96 / +6° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.48
Bret David 90 / -10° Pull Out 0.4 → 0 -0.37
Felix Ribera 81 / -14° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.33
Tigers
54% deserve-to-win  ·  4.4 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 6.8 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+0.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Kenyatta Soldan 100 / +28° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.34
Youstin Verón 79 / +7° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Eloy Amigo 81 / +4° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Jon Grimaldo 99 / -4° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
Tomm Marjan 76 / +20° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
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