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Marlins 6, Orioles 4                                        2026-09-05 · #1589
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Miami                   6    6    5    0
Baltimore               4    4    7    0

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Salcido     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.000
Hester      p  ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Enquist     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.000
Blackman    c  ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Suárez      lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Mangin      ss ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Chappell    3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Altamirano  1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Enterline   rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Burns       j  ......    0   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   1   0   .000
Totals                  11   6   5   0   0   0   6   5   2   1   1  0.455
  CS: Blackman (11).
  HBP: Mangin (2).
  Squeeze: Chappell.


ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shaffer     p  ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Sigourney   2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Schloss     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Maciejc ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Stokke      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Alison  ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Melch       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Flowers     lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Foust   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ison        1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Barba   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Samudio     ss ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Michulk pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kautz       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Royal   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Purchas ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Mills   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rubin       j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Thompson    j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  27   4   7   0   0   0   4   4  10   0   0  0.259
  SB: Foust (19).
  CS: Barba (6), Michulka (9).
  HBP: Alison (2).
  GIDP: Melch (4), Rubin (4).
  a-Grounded out for Schloss in the 5th.
  b-Batted for Stokke in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Flowers in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Ison in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Samudio in the 3rd.
  f-Ran for Kautz in the 3rd.
  g-Batted for Barba in the 3rd.
  h-Ran in the 6th.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Hester ..............     8    6   29  3.6    3    0    0    0    4    0    -
Tillman .............     7    6   25  3.6    2    1    1    1    2    0  2-0
Barcello (W, 0-3) ...     7    7   28  4.0    0    1    1    1    2    0  2-0
Granger .............     8    6   25  3.1    1    1    1    2    2    0  1-1
Contreras ...........     2    2    9  4.5    1    1    1    0    0    0  2-1

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Shaffer .............     9    7   37  4.1    2    2    2    2    1    0    -
Wayar (L, 9-6) ......     6    3   24  4.0    2    4    4    3    1    0  1-1

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hester (Outs 1-6) → Tillman (Outs 7-12) → Barcello (Outs 13-19) → Granger (Outs 20-25) → Contreras (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Salcido (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Chappell (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Mangin (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Suárez (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-10)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Shaffer (Outs 1-7) → Wayar (Outs 8-10)
CATCHER (C)       | Kautz (Outs 1-10)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Ison (Outs 1-10)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-10)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Stokke (Outs 1-10)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Samudio (Outs 1-10)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Flowers (Outs 1-10)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Melch (Outs 1-10)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Schloss (Outs 1-10)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted first; Marlins batted second.
  First pitch 7:05 PM ET. Weather: 64°F · Wind out · Clear. seed 410801.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 0.56
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 8 Rónald Samudio Rónald Samudio (2B) 0–1 —
B 16 Jarmere Royal Destyn Thompson (2B) 0–2 —
B 20 Dylan Purchase Sidney Foust (3B) 0–3 —
B 25 Arkie Rubin Kristian Alison (3B) 0–4 —
T 1 Ramon Blackman Anthonie Hester (2B) 1–4 0.46
T 6 Jason Enquist Devon Mangin (3B) 2–4 0.43
T 7 Devon Mangin Anthonie Hester (3B) 3–4 0.30
T 10 Jason Enquist Ramon Blackman (3B) 4–4 0.18
T 10 Don Burns Devon Mangin (3B) 5–4 0.00
T 10 Don Burns Wallace Enterline (2B) 6–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 0.56
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Marlins — Batted Balls
7 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Anthonie Hester — single · EV 87 mph · LA -6° · 83 ft Ramon Blackman — single · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Clifford Chappell — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -18° · 72 ft Jean Altamirano — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Jason Enquist — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +17° · 155 ft Don Burns — single · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 129 ft Ramon Blackman — single · EV 93 mph · LA -28° · 88 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 7 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Cole Shaffer — single · EV 90 mph · LA -8° · 85 ft Andre Melch — double_play · EV 84 mph · LA -6° · 80 ft Dyllan Ison — single · EV 90 mph · LA -1° · 85 ft Rónald Samudio — single · EV 96 mph · LA +24° · 271 ft Rill Kautz — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +12° · 150 ft Arkie Rubin — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +21° · 170 ft Shawqi Maciejczak — fielders_choice · EV 61 mph · LA -19° · 58 ft Jarmere Royal — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -9° · 65 ft Dan Mills — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -15° · 80 ft Rónald Samudio — single · EV 85 mph · LA +17° · 165 ft Korey Flowers — single · EV 94 mph · LA +18° · 207 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA +19° · 118 ft Arkie Rubin — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +9° · 70 ft Dylan Purchase — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +28° · 245 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 145 ft Cole Shaffer — single · EV 87 mph · LA +7° · 82 ft Arkie Rubin — double_play · EV 88 mph · LA +6° · 84 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
36% deserve-to-win  ·  3.9 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +2.1 vs expected
contact: 3.3 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (+0.7 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ramon Blackman 76 / -15° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Anthonie Hester 87 / -6° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Ramon Blackman 93 / -28° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Jason Enquist 82 / +17° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Don Burns 100 / +9° Center Stay 1.3 → 1 -0.25
Orioles
64% deserve-to-win  ·  5.1 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.1 vs expected
contact: 8.3 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-1.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-1.0 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rill Kautz 95 / +12° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Cole Shaffer 87 / +7° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Cole Shaffer 90 / -8° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Dyllan Ison 90 / -1° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Arkie Rubin 80 / +21° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
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