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Rockies 4, Padres 3                                         2026-09-05 · #1588
at Kuvvatov Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
San Diego               3    3    5    0
Colorado                4    4    3    0

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Wilcox      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.000
  a-Lettier ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Susnjar     c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Salcido     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Gleeson ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Najar       rf ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Alemu       1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Atehort pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Staten      ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
MacCracken  2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Andrade ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Banuelos    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Fernández   lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Manzano pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  26   3   5   1   0   0   3   3   8   0   1  0.192
  2B: Najar (14).
  CS: Atehortua (10).
  GIDP: Banuelos (6).
  a-Singled for Wilcox in the 6th.
  b-Walked for Salcido in the 6th.
  c-Ran for Alemu in the 6th.
  d-Grounded out for MacCracken in the 9th.
  e-Ran for Gleeson in the 6th.

ROCKIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Otamendi    cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Martinho    ss ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Ruidíaz pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sanchez     p  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Chaves  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Touchard    c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Alderman    3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Vidal       rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Herr    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Diatta      2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Poling      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Farquha ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Goss        lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Robles  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Dowell      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  18   4   3   1   0   0   4   3   4   0   0  0.167
  2B: Martinho (63).
  HBP: Otamendi (1).
  a-Ran for Martinho in the 6th.
  b-Walked for Sanchez in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Vidal in the 5th.
  d-Grounded out for Poling in the 6th.
  e-Ran for Chaves in the 6th.

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Wilcox ..............     9    7   36  4.0    1    1    1    1    4    0    -
Hulbert .............     7    7   25  3.6    0    0    0    0    0    0  1-0
Barboza (L, 1-2) ....     6    3   26  4.3    2    3    3    2    0    0  1-1

ROCKIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Sanchez .............     5    3   18  3.6    2    0    0    0    2    0    -
Denson ..............     8    8   27  3.4    0    1    1    1    1    0  2-1
Kiger ...............     8    7   30  3.8    3    2    2    1    1    0  1-0
Mejia (W, 1-0) ......     8    9   40  5.0    0    0    0    1    4    0  1-0

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-17)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wilcox (Outs 1-7) → Hulbert (Outs 8-14) → Barboza (Outs 15-17)
CATCHER (C)       | Susnjar (Outs 1-17)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alemu (Outs 1-17)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-17)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Banuelos (Outs 1-17)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Staten (Outs 1-17)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-17)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Salcido (Outs 1-17)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Najar (Outs 1-17)

ROCKIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Sanchez (Outs 1-3) → Denson (Outs 4-11) → Kiger (Outs 12-18) → Mejia (Outs 19-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Touchard (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Poling (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Diatta (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alderman (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martinho (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Goss (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Otamendi (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Vidal (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Rockies (home) batted second; Padres batted first.
  First pitch 1:10 PM MT. Weather: 74°F · Wind in · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 991227.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.69
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 6 Israel Fernández Kreigh Susnjar (3B) 1–0 —
T 16 Reed Lettiere Keshav Atehortua (2B) 2–0 —
T 17 Yoshimar Najar Reed Lettiere (2B) 3–0 —
B 5 Wesly Otamendi Jhonny Sanchez (2B) 3–1 0.41
B 15 Markeylin Martinho Ronald Herr (3B) 3–2 0.50
B 15 Markeylin Martinho Oren Robles (1B) 3–3 0.25
B 16 Tavierre Farquhar Marco Ruidíaz (2B) 3–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.69
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kuvvatov Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 409' · RF 308' · 12' wall). Center-Field Triangle.
Padres — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
341' 409' 308' Bertram Wilcox — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +29° · 272 ft Kreigh Susnjar — single · EV 107 mph · LA +14° · 218 ft Yoshimar Najar — single · EV 67 mph · LA +16° · 95 ft Zane Staten — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -10° · 70 ft Stefan Banuelos — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +1° · 88 ft Israel Fernández — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -15° · 75 ft Reed Lettiere — single · EV 85 mph · LA +18° · 171 ft Keshav Atehortua — fielders_choice · EV 83 mph · LA +2° · 79 ft Haxzel Andrade — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA +9° · 65 ft Israel Fernández — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -11° · 73 ft Teferi Alemu — single · EV 84 mph · LA -7° · 79 ft Yoshimar Najar — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +24° · 229 ft Ángelo Salcido — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +1° · 92 ft Kreigh Susnjar — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +12° · 132 ft Ludlow MacCracken — line_out · EV 103 mph · LA +19° · 261 ft Yoshimar Najar — double · EV 95 mph · LA +16° · 189 ft
Rockies — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
341' 409' 308' Markeylin Martinho — line_out · EV 91 mph · LA +17° · 187 ft Jhonny Sanchez — single · EV 73 mph · LA +11° · 78 ft Wesly Otamendi — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +2° · 75 ft Ahkhari Goss — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +18° · 204 ft Allen Alderman — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -5° · 82 ft Tavierre Farquhar — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -2° · 69 ft Ahkhari Goss — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +16° · 127 ft Reed Poling — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +40° · 272 ft Youstin Vidal — fielders_choice · EV 73 mph · LA -17° · 69 ft Jahmari Touchard — single · EV 74 mph · LA +8° · 61 ft Markeylin Martinho — double · EV 107 mph · LA +26° · 362 ft Ahkhari Goss — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +21° · 231 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Padres
40% deserve-to-win  ·  4.8 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -1.8 vs expected
contact: 9.5 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-3.5 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ludlow MacCracken 103 / +19° Oppo Out 1.4 → 0 -1.41
Yoshimar Najar 95 / +16° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.91
Kreigh Susnjar 90 / +12° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Bertram Wilcox 90 / +29° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Yoshimar Najar 67 / +16° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Rockies
60% deserve-to-win  ·  5.9 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.9 vs expected
contact: 7.9 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-3.9 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Markeylin Martinho 91 / +17° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Ahkhari Goss 93 / +18° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Ahkhari Goss 93 / +21° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Reed Poling 83 / +40° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.67
Ahkhari Goss 77 / +16° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
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