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Beavers 2, Stars 1                                          2026-09-05 · #1587
at The Oval
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                        1    R    H    E
Nashville               1    1    2    0
Portland                2    2    2    0

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Karouani    1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Caballe pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cooper      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Santama ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hansen      rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Gaubert pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Sappington  3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Spence      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Fusano  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gayton      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Beers   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Mendez      c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Burani      2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Falcao      p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Cubillá pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Santiago    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   1   2   0   0   0   1   3  14   0   0  0.080
  HBP: Santamaría (1).
  GIDP: Santamaría (6), Caballero (4).
  a-Ran for Karouani in the 7th.
  b-Batted for Cooper in the 6th.
  c-Ran for Hansen in the 6th.
  d-Struck out for Spence in the 8th.
  e-Walked for Gayton in the 8th.
  f-Ran in the 8th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vahaly      ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Henríquez   p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Tessema     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Turenne ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Fuenzalida  lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Clement     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Harper  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Guerra      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Aktaş       3b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Waston  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Palepale    c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Briaud      cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  d-Okey    pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Holzwor ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Smith   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0   .000
Velazquez   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Redmayne    j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  26   2   2   1   0   0   2   2  17   0   0  0.077
  2B: Aktaş (5).
  SB: Waston (10).
  HBP: Smith (1).
  a-Grounded out for Tessema in the 9th.
  b-Batted for Clement in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Aktaş in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Waston in the 5th.
  e-Struck out in the 6th.
  f-Ran in the 6th.

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Falcao ..............     9    8   35  3.9    1    0    0    0    4    0    -
Langenfeld (L, 4-14)      7    7   30  4.3    0    1    1    0    5    0  1-0
Kekahuna ............     8    5   34  4.2    1    0    0    1    5    0    -
Ginóbili ............     5    3   15  3.0    0    1    1    1    3    0  2-0

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Henríquez ...........     9    9   39  4.3    0    0    0    0    4    0    -
Giammalva ...........     7    6   30  4.3    0    0    0    1    4    0    -
Ghea (W, 4-6) .......     7    7   26  3.7    2    0    0    0    3    0  1-0
Kamiwazumi ..........     6    5   19  3.2    0    1    1    2    3    0  1-0

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-23)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Falcao (Outs 1-8) → Langenfeld (Outs 9-15) → Kekahuna (Outs 16-20) → Ginóbili (Outs 21-23)
CATCHER (C)       | Mendez (Outs 1-23)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Karouani (Outs 1-23)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Burani (Outs 1-23)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sappington (Outs 1-23)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Spence (Outs 1-23)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-23)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-23)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Hansen (Outs 1-23)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Henríquez (Outs 1-9) → Giammalva (Outs 10-15) → Ghea (Outs 16-22) → Kamiwazumi (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Palepale (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Guerra (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Aktaş (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Briaud (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Clement (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted second; Stars batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 63°F · Wind in · Overcast. seed 25791.
  Powerplays: Beavers — Holzworth NF
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 0.30
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 25 Tony Caballero Haxzel Cubillán (3B) 1–0 —
B 12 Yadier Guerra Rhyne Okey (3B) 1–1 0.20
B 23 Ricki Smith Ricki Smith (3B) 1–2 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 0.30
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Stars — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Khosilot El Karouani — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA +8° · 57 ft Bradley Hansen — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +1° · 73 ft Wallace Sappington — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +3° · 87 ft Nestor Santamaría — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +38° · 225 ft Jaime Gaubert — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 140 ft Tony Caballero — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Justo Burani — line_out · EV 56 mph · LA +15° · 62 ft Sean Spence — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Khosilot El Karouani — single · EV 80 mph · LA +8° · 76 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Francisco Vahaly — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +47° · 372 ft Bonsa Tessema — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -8° · 80 ft Val Clement — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA +9° · 62 ft Dawood Aktaş — double · EV 98 mph · LA +18° · 220 ft Gabriel Harper — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -9° · 63 ft Levar De Turenne — fielders_choice · EV 74 mph · LA -11° · 70 ft Yadier Guerra — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -6° · 67 ft Édison Henríquez — infield_single · EV 67 mph · LA +2° · 64 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Stars
25% deserve-to-win  ·  1.4 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 2.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-0.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Khosilot El Karouani 80 / +8° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Jaime Gaubert 76 / +19° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Wallace Sappington 92 / +3° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.41
Justo Burani 56 / +15° Oppo Out 0.3 → 0 -0.33
Bradley Hansen 77 / +1° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.25
Beavers
75% deserve-to-win  ·  2.5 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 4.7 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-1.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Francisco Vahaly 96 / +47° Center Out 2.0 → 0 -2.00
Édison Henríquez 67 / +2° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Dawood Aktaş 98 / +18° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.77
Val Clement 71 / +9° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Bonsa Tessema 84 / -8° Oppo Out 0.3 → 0 -0.33
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