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Panevėžys Bottling Co. 14, Smirnykh Storms 4                2046-05-10 · #1802
at Hyyrynen Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Panevėžys              14   14   17    0
Smirnykh                4    4    5    0

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO.
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shafie      ss ......    4   4   4   1   0   2   6   0   0   0   0  1.000
Baklenko    cf ......    3   1   3   1   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
Turnbow     c  ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Lehnhoff    3b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Barten      rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Galvis      lf ......    4   1   2   0   1   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Mejía       2b ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.667
Breit       1b ......    2   3   1   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
March       p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.000
Saul        j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Faga        j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  35  14  17   4   1   2  14   4   5   0   1  0.486
  2B: Shafie (24), Baklenko (2), Lehnhoff (13), Saul (11).
  3B: Galvis (1).
  HR: Shafie 2 (5), off Chuang, Borcherding-Johnsonov.
  GIDP: Lehnhoff 2 (5).


SMIRNYKH STORMS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Ionov       2b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Jonesov     ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Mykolenko   c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Rongo       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Lazareva    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Chang       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Reyngold    rf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Chuang      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Vatutin cf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Mykhayl ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Gormanov    j  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Amini       j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Totals                  29   4   5   2   0   1   4   2  16   0   0  0.172
  2B: Ionov (5), Vatutin (2).
  HR: Amini (3), off March.
  CS: Chang (1).
  HBP: Chang (1).
  a-Entered at CF in the 7th.
  b-Walked for Vatutin in the 9th.

PANEVĖŽYS BOTTLING CO. PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
March (W, 3-4) ......    31   27 100%    4    4    4    2   16    1  128    -

SMIRNYKH STORMS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Chuang ..............     4    1   4%    4    2    1    0    0    1    6    -
Ivakhnenko ..........     4    1   4%    3    3    3    0    0    0   16  2-2
Borcherding- (L, 0-3)     13   10  37%    4    5    5    2    1    1   36  2-1
Dementieva ..........    11    7  26%    5    4    3    1    2    0   39  1-1
Kravchenko ..........     7    8  30%    1    0    0    1    2    0   18  2-0

  Batting order: Smirnykh Storms (home) batted second; Panevėžys Bottling Co. batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM. Weather: 74°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 459933.
  Walk-Back runs: off Chuang 1, off Dementieva 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 0 Harris Shafie Harris Shafie (HR) 1–0
T 0 Dan Baklenko Harris Shafie (3B) 2–0
T 2 Júnior Galvis Diego Turnbow (3B) 3–0
T 2 Júnior Galvis Armondo Lehnhoff (2B) 4–0
T 2 Sadiel Mejía Júnior Galvis (3B) 5–0
T 4 Harris Shafie Malik Breit (1B) 6–0
T 10 Malik Breit Tavierre Saul (3B) 7–0
T 12 Harris Shafie Sadiel Mejía (2B) 8–0
T 12 Harris Shafie Malik Breit (1B) 9–0
T 12 Harris Shafie Harris Shafie (HR) 10–0
T 12 Dan Baklenko Harris Shafie (3B) 11–0
T 18 Malik Breit Dan Baklenko (3B) 12–0
T 19 Harris Shafie Mackenzie Faga (3B) 13–0
T 19 Dan Baklenko Malik Breit (3B) 14–0
B 6 Yuri Vatutin Jan-michael Jonesov (2B) 14–1
B 6 Yuri Vatutin Terrance Gormanov (1B) 14–2
B 8 Valery Ionov Grigori Reyngold (1B) 14–3
B 12 Tommy Amini Tommy Amini (HR) 14–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Hyyrynen Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 307' · CF 355' · RF 279' · 48' wall). The Bandbox.
Wire Basket
Panevėžys Bottling Co. — Batted Balls
26 BIP· 10 1B · 5 XBH · 2 HR
307' 355' 279' Wall 48' Harris Shafie — hr · EV 101 mph · LA +41° · 407 ft Dan Baklenko — double · EV 108 mph · LA +20° · 291 ft Diego Turnbow — single · EV 91 mph · LA +9° · 97 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — double · EV 93 mph · LA +34° · 320 ft Júnior Galvis — triple · EV 102 mph · LA +16° · 224 ft Sadiel Mejía — single · EV 98 mph · LA -3° · 94 ft Tavierre Saul — double · EV 107 mph · LA +18° · 270 ft Gavin March — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +26° · 218 ft Malik Breit — fielders_choice · EV 64 mph · LA +1° · 61 ft Harris Shafie — double · EV 115 mph · LA +21° · 352 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — double_play · EV 78 mph · LA -12° · 74 ft Júnior Galvis — single · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 190 ft Sadiel Mejía — single · EV 88 mph · LA +29° · 262 ft Dan Baklenko — single · EV 84 mph · LA +15° · 143 ft Mackenzie Faga — single · EV 87 mph · LA +8° · 88 ft Malik Breit — single · EV 93 mph · LA +18° · 204 ft Harris Shafie — hr · EV 105 mph · LA +33° · 397 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 214 ft Tyderick Barten — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +42° · 273 ft Júnior Galvis — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +5° · 76 ft Dan Baklenko — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 126 ft Harris Shafie — single · EV 89 mph · LA +8° · 93 ft Diego Turnbow — single · EV 82 mph · LA -3° · 78 ft Armondo Lehnhoff — double_play · EV 82 mph · LA +2° · 78 ft Tyderick Barten — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +0° · 76 ft Júnior Galvis — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -6° · 73 ft
Smirnykh Storms — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 1 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
307' 355' 279' Wall 48' Jan-michael Jonesov — single · EV 66 mph · LA +16° · 94 ft Yuri Vatutin — double · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 360 ft Grigori Reyngold — fielders_choice · EV 79 mph · LA -9° · 75 ft Andriy Mykolenko — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA -10° · 95 ft Valery Ionov — double · EV 95 mph · LA +22° · 247 ft Tommy Amini — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +39° · 392 ft Alen Lazareva — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +29° · 251 ft Grigori Reyngold — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -15° · 88 ft Talib Chang — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +34° · 328 ft Alen Lazareva — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 223 ft Grigori Reyngold — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +18° · 191 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Panevėžys Bottling Co.
90% deserve-to-win  ·  13.7 expected runs
actual 14 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 24.1 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 29.0 (+4.9 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Harris Shafie 101 / +41° Oppo Home Run 2.5 → 4 +1.48
Júnior Galvis 102 / +16° Oppo Triple 1.5 → 3 +1.47
Armondo Lehnhoff 92 / +20° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.00
Armondo Lehnhoff 93 / +34° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.98
Harris Shafie 105 / +33° Oppo Home Run 3.0 → 4 +0.95
Smirnykh Storms
10% deserve-to-win  ·  4.5 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 10.7 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-1.7 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tommy Amini 100 / +39° Oppo Home Run 2.1 → 4 +1.87
Alen Lazareva 100 / +17° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.32
Talib Chang 94 / +34° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.02
Valery Ionov 95 / +22° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +1.00
Grigori Reyngold 90 / +18° Pull Out 1.0 → 0 -1.00
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