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Orioles 20, Nationals 0                                      2026-06-14 · #779
at Tannery Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Baltimore              20      0   20   21    0
Washington              0      -    0    5    0

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Maloney     lf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Bannatyne   rf ......    5   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.200
Sugita      p  ......    5   2   3   0   1   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.600
Flowers     cf ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.333
Mills       ss ......    5   4   3   1   0   1   5   0   0   0   0  0.600
Samudio     1b ......    5   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.400
Ison        2b ......    4   3   2   2   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Purchase    3b ......    5   2   3   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.600
Kagame      c  ......    6   2   2   2   0   0   3   0   2   0   0  0.333
  a-Alison  ph ......    3   1   3   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  43  20  21   9   1   2  20   2   5   0   0  0.488
  2B: Flowers (13), Mills (3), Ison 2 (7), Purchase (4), Kagame 2 (3), Alison 2 (5).
  3B: Sugita (1).
  HR: Bannatyne (8), off Coffey; Mills (1), off Clemente.
  HBP: Flowers (3).
  a-Batted in the 4th.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Alvarado    ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Thompkins   lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Coffey      p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pastore     2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Devezin     rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Cheng       cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ferrie      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Baloy       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Menz        c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Heffner ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  26   0   5   1   0   0   0   1  11   0   1  0.192
  2B: Heffner (6).
  CS: Thompkins (1).
  GIDP: Cheng 2 (7).
  a-Batted in the 6th.

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sugita (W, 6-3) .....    11   12  44%    2    0    0    0    8    0   49    -
Nealon ..............    13   13  48%    2    0    0    1    3    0   49  1-0
Chandronnait ........     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    0    0    4  1-0

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Coffey ..............    20   10  37%   10   10    4    1    0    1   62    -
Clemente ............    14   10  37%    6    4    4    0    2    1   43    -
Gilliom (L, 0-1) ....    12    7  26%    5    6    5    1    3    0   41  1-1

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Sugita (Outs 1-12) → Nealon (Outs 13-25) → Chandronnait (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Kagame (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ison (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Purchase (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Mills (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Maloney (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Flowers (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bannatyne (Outs 1-27)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Coffey (Outs 1-10) → Clemente (Outs 11-20) → Gilliom (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Menz (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Baloy (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Ferrie (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Alvarado (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cheng (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted second; Orioles batted first.
  Seconds: BAL o26 (20-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 80°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 783549.
  Walk-Back runs: off Coffey 1, off Gilliom 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.33    Peak faced 63.00
    27 outs left: 2.33
    18 outs left: 3.50
     9 outs left: 7.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 1 Keisei Sugita Alan Maloney (2B) 1–0 —
T 1 Dan Mills Keisei Sugita (2B) 2–0 —
T 1 Dan Mills Korey Flowers (1B) 3–0 —
T 2 Dyllan Ison Dan Mills (3B) 4–0 —
T 2 Dylan Purchase Dyllan Ison (2B) 5–0 —
T 2 Junior Kagame Dylan Purchase (2B) 6–0 —
T 2 Junior Kagame Junior Kagame (1B) 7–0 —
T 8 Doug Bannatyne Korey Flowers (2B) 8–0 —
T 8 Doug Bannatyne Doug Bannatyne (HR) 9–0 —
T 8 Alan Maloney Doug Bannatyne (3B) 10–0 —
T 10 Keisei Sugita Kristian Alison (2B) 11–0 —
T 16 Kristian Alison Dyllan Ison (2B) 12–0 —
T 19 Dan Mills Keisei Sugita (1B) 13–0 —
T 19 Dan Mills Dan Mills (HR) 14–0 —
T 21 Dylan Purchase Dan Mills (3B) 15–0 —
T 21 Junior Kagame Dylan Purchase (1B) 16–0 —
T 23 Rónald Samudio Junior Kagame (3B) 17–0 —
T 23 Dan Mills Dyllan Ison (2B) 18–0 —
T 23 Korey Flowers Rónald Samudio (3B) 19–0 —
T 23 Korey Flowers Dan Mills (1B) 20–0 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.33
Peak faced 63.00
27 outs left 2.33
18 outs left 3.50
9 outs left 7.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Orioles — Batted Balls
36 BIP· 9 1B · 10 XBH · 2 HR
331' 438' 348' Alan Maloney — single · EV 95 mph · LA +6° · 91 ft Doug Bannatyne — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -11° · 65 ft Keisei Sugita — single · EV 99 mph · LA -12° · 94 ft Dan Mills — double · EV 110 mph · LA +15° · 243 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -10° · 80 ft Dyllan Ison — double · EV 99 mph · LA +16° · 206 ft Dylan Purchase — double · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 298 ft Junior Kagame — error · EV 73 mph · LA -3° · 69 ft Kristian Alison — double · EV 114 mph · LA +24° · 390 ft Junior Kagame — double · EV 116 mph · LA +18° · 310 ft Dylan Purchase — single · EV 89 mph · LA -8° · 84 ft Dyllan Ison — fielders_choice · EV 97 mph · LA -6° · 92 ft Rónald Samudio — single · EV 106 mph · LA +19° · 273 ft Dan Mills — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +22° · 246 ft Keisei Sugita — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -18° · 69 ft Doug Bannatyne — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +36° · 480 ft Alan Maloney — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 347 ft Kristian Alison — double · EV 104 mph · LA +34° · 399 ft Doug Bannatyne — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 313 ft Keisei Sugita — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 204 ft Dan Mills — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +40° · 250 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -7° · 78 ft Dyllan Ison — double · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 232 ft Dylan Purchase — fly_out · EV 74 mph · LA +36° · 211 ft Korey Flowers — double · EV 103 mph · LA +14° · 195 ft Kristian Alison — single · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 154 ft Keisei Sugita — single · EV 96 mph · LA -20° · 91 ft Dan Mills — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +44° · 400 ft Dyllan Ison — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +10° · 126 ft Dylan Purchase — single · EV 90 mph · LA +12° · 131 ft Junior Kagame — double · EV 106 mph · LA +11° · 175 ft Rónald Samudio — single · EV 89 mph · LA +26° · 247 ft Dan Mills — single · EV 99 mph · LA -13° · 94 ft Keisei Sugita — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +41° · 305 ft Doug Bannatyne — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +7° · 88 ft Junior Kagame — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 218 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Marcos Pastore — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 142 ft Damion Thompkins — single · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Daniel Heffner — double · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 315 ft Júnior Alvarado — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +36° · 220 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Rill Devezin — single · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft Christian Coffey — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +58° · 302 ft Kendry Baloy — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -1° · 87 ft Daniel Heffner — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +44° · 338 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Rill Devezin — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 103 ft Marcos Pastore — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 87 ft Christian Coffey — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 203 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orioles
99% deserve-to-win  ·  18.0 expected runs
actual 20 runs  ·  +2.0 vs expected
contact: 35.6 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 38.0 (+2.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Keisei Sugita 100 / +15° Pull Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.75
Dan Mills 100 / +44° Oppo Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.41
Alan Maloney 100 / +30° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Doug Bannatyne 100 / +26° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Dylan Purchase 92 / +30° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Nationals
1% deserve-to-win  ·  1.7 expected runs
actual 0 runs  ·  -1.7 vs expected
contact: 6.5 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-1.5 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Daniel Heffner 92 / +44° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Daniel Heffner 92 / +34° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Christian Coffey 92 / +18° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Damion Thompkins 76 / -1° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Rill Devezin 76 / +0° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
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