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Brewers 18, Giants 4                                         2026-06-14 · #782
at Bussaglia Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
San Francisco           4      0    4    3    0
Milwaukee              18      0   18   13    0

GIANTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Horvath     2b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Solórzano   c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Cardozo     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Kelley      1b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Galloway    lf ......    1   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   1  1.000
Braxton     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Connelly    rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Short       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   1  0.000
Guerrant    p  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Matos   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   4   3   1   0   0   3   3  11   0   2  0.111
  2B: Galloway (18).
  Squeeze: Short (1 RBI).
  a-Grounded out in the 6th.

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mesidor     c  ......    5   3   3   0   1   1   3   0   0   0   0  0.600
Irving      lf ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Fossati     cf ......    3   4   2   0   0   1   3   1   0   0   0  0.667
Prather     1b ......    5   1   3   2   0   0   4   0   2   0   0  0.600
Espinoza    3b ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Kollen      p  ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   1  0.333
Bangoura    rf ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Yani        2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Saravia     ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Edwards ph ......    3   3   2   1   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Totals                  34  18  13   4   1   3  16   7  10   0   1  0.382
  2B: Prather 2 (13), Bangoura (12), Edwards (17).
  3B: Mesidor (2).
  HR: Mesidor (8), off Caicedo; Fossati (6), off Warburg; Edwards (8), off Caicedo.
  HBP: Fossati (4).
  a-Batted in the 6th.

GIANTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Guerrant (L, 8-3) ...    13    8  30%    5    5    5    3    1    0   45    -
Warburg .............    13    9  33%    2    6    5    3    4    1   59  1-0
Caicedo .............    12    7  26%    4    6    5    1    4    2   37    -
Matos ...............     4    3  11%    2    1    1    0    1    0   15  1-1

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kollen (W, 9-1) .....    13   13  48%    2    1    1    0    6    0   62    -
Hamdy ...............    13   11  41%    1    2    2    2    4    0   44    -
Kossmann ............     4    3  11%    0    1    1    1    1    0   17  1-1

GIANTS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Guerrant (Outs 1-8) → Warburg (Outs 9-17) → Caicedo (Outs 18-24) → Matos (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Solórzano (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kelley (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Horvath (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Cardozo (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Short (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Galloway (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Braxton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Connelly (Outs 1-27)

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Kollen (Outs 1-13) → Hamdy (Outs 14-24) → Kossmann (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mesidor (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Prather (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Yani (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Espinoza (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Irving (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fossati (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bangoura (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Brewers (home) batted first; Giants batted second.
  Seconds: SFG o26 (4-18), MIL o26 (18-0).
  First pitch 2:00 PM CT. Weather: 73°F · Wind in · Clear · Humid. seed 696186.
  Powerplays: Giants — Matos NF (O1)
  Walk-Back runs: off Warburg 1, off Caicedo 1, off Matos 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.11    Peak faced 22.50
    27 outs left: 2.11
    18 outs left: 3.00
     9 outs left: 5.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 3 Robby Kollen Clifford Irving (3B) 0–1 —
B 4 Johan Bangoura Cannon Prather (3B) 0–2 —
B 7 Cannon Prather Johan Bangoura (3B) 0–3 —
B 7 Cannon Prather Clifford Irving (2B) 0–4 —
B 7 Cannon Prather Alan Fossati (1B) 0–5 —
B 8 Graydon Yani Andres Espinoza (3B) 0–6 —
B 8 Graydon Yani Robby Kollen (3B) 0–7 —
B 15 Alan Fossati Johan Bangoura (3B) 0–8 —
B 15 Alan Fossati Robby Kollen (1B) 0–9 —
B 15 Alan Fossati Alan Fossati (HR) 0–10 —
B 15 Daniel Edwards Alan Fossati (3B) 0–11 —
B 16 Stan Mesidor Stan Mesidor (3B) 0–12 —
B 19 Robby Kollen Daniel Edwards (2B) 0–13 —
B 23 Stan Mesidor Alan Fossati (2B) 0–14 —
B 23 Stan Mesidor Stan Mesidor (HR) 0–15 —
B 23 Daniel Edwards Stan Mesidor (3B) 0–16 —
B 23 Daniel Edwards Daniel Edwards (HR) 0–17 —
B 24 Cannon Prather Daniel Edwards (3B) 0–18 —
T 2 Jeyland Solórzano Alafia Kelley (3B) 1–18 2.16
T 17 Brad Galloway Brad Galloway (1B) 2–18 5.10
T 21 Jerome Short Brad Galloway (3B) 3–18 8.00
T 23 Egan Guerrant Devon Horvath (3B) 4–18 11.25
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.11
Peak faced 22.50
27 outs left 2.11
18 outs left 3.00
9 outs left 5.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Bussaglia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 344' · CF 415' · RF 304' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Giants — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
344' 415' 304' Alafia Kelley — single · EV 71 mph · LA +16° · 110 ft Devon Horvath — single · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 64 ft Jeyland Solórzano — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +42° · 256 ft Stefan Braxton — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +2° · 75 ft Antolín Matos — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 122 ft Brad Galloway — double · EV 86 mph · LA +23° · 214 ft Egan Guerrant — ground_out · EV 55 mph · LA -4° · 52 ft Devon Horvath — ground_out · EV 55 mph · LA -6° · 52 ft Alafia Kelley — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +28° · 202 ft Stefan Braxton — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Egan Guerrant — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +11° · 111 ft Egan Guerrant — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -5° · 83 ft Alexander Connelly — fielders_choice · EV 53 mph · LA -11° · 50 ft Jeyland Solórzano — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft
Brewers — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 5 1B · 5 XBH · 3 HR
344' 415' 304' Stan Mesidor — single · EV 88 mph · LA -18° · 84 ft Alan Fossati — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +31° · 282 ft Cannon Prather — single · EV 87 mph · LA +13° · 131 ft Johan Bangoura — double · EV 85 mph · LA +35° · 270 ft Robby Kollen — single · EV 83 mph · LA +9° · 83 ft Graydon Yani — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -10° · 70 ft Stan Mesidor — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +8° · 89 ft Cannon Prather — double · EV 106 mph · LA +14° · 207 ft Johan Bangoura — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +8° · 66 ft Andres Espinoza — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -4° · 71 ft Alan Fossati — hr · EV 117 mph · LA +39° · 480 ft Daniel Edwards — double · EV 92 mph · LA +48° · 333 ft Robby Kollen — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Sergio Saravia — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +8° · 77 ft Stan Mesidor — triple · EV 95 mph · LA +41° · 356 ft Daniel Edwards — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +42° · 474 ft Alan Fossati — single · EV 94 mph · LA +31° · 315 ft Stan Mesidor — ground_out · EV 108 mph · LA +3° · 103 ft Sergio Saravia — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +11° · 115 ft Andres Espinoza — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +41° · 238 ft Johan Bangoura — single · EV 100 mph · LA -1° · 95 ft Stan Mesidor — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +34° · 455 ft Cannon Prather — double · EV 97 mph · LA +20° · 236 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Giants
4% deserve-to-win  ·  2.8 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +1.2 vs expected
contact: 5.2 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-1.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Brad Galloway 86 / +23° Center Double 0.6 → 2 +1.39
Antolín Matos 92 / +10° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Jeyland Solórzano 80 / +42° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.68
Egan Guerrant 86 / +11° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Devon Horvath 76 / +8° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Brewers
96% deserve-to-win  ·  13.8 expected runs
actual 18 runs  ·  +4.2 vs expected
contact: 22.1 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 28.0 (+5.9 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Stan Mesidor 95 / +41° Pull Triple 1.2 → 3 +1.82
Johan Bangoura 85 / +35° Center Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Daniel Edwards 92 / +48° Pull Double 0.5 → 2 +1.48
Cannon Prather 97 / +20° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Alan Fossati 89 / +31° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
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