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Padres 7, Athletics 6                                        2026-06-14 · #783
at Abdurakhmanov Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
San Diego               7    7    9    0
Oakland                 6    6    6    0

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Wilcox      p  ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   1  1.000
MacCracken  2b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Clarke  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Najar       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Staten      c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Deery       ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Alemu       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Atehortua   1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Lettier ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Batt        cf ......    2   2   2   1   0   0   2   2   0   0   0  1.000
Fernández   lf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Pearman     j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Cleveland   j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  29   7   9   3   0   0   7   5   8   0   1  0.310
  2B: Wilcox (1), Batt (8), Fernández (11).
  SB: Staten (4).
  GIDP: Atehortua (5).
  a-Ran for MacCracken in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Atehortua in the 6th.

ATHLETICS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cagle       cf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Jenkins     p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Sinclai ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Noel        ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pagán       c  ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.500
Fink        rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Sawchuk ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Diémé       lf ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Caspersen   2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Molina      1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Saunders    3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Leat    pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Gerlach ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Moros   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Zago    ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Banuelo pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Taygan      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   1  0.000
Benítez     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   6   6   2   0   1   6   5  12   0   1  0.207
  2B: Cagle (19), Pagán (23).
  HR: Diémé (3), off Wilcox.
  SB: Leat (1).
  CS: Diémé (4).
  GIDP: Noel (3).
  a-Batted for Jenkins in the 3rd.
  b-Struck out for Fink in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Saunders in the 3rd.
  d-Batted for Sawchuk in the 7th.
  e-Struck out for Leat in the 6th.
  f-Batted in the 8th.
  g-Ran in the 8th.

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wilcox (W, 8-1) .....    33   26  96%    5    6    5    5   12    1  124    -
Campos ..............     0    1   4%    0    0    0    0    0    0    2  3-0

ATHLETICS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Jenkins .............    11    8  30%    2    2    2    2    3    0   36    -
Kitler ..............    16   14  52%    4    1    1    2    3    0   52  1-0
Appiah (L, 0-3) .....     4    1   4%    2    3    3    1    0    0    9  3-3
Rowe ................     3    4  15%    1    1    1    0    2    0   14  3-1

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wilcox (Outs 1-26) → Campos (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Staten (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alemu (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Deery (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Batt (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Najar (Outs 1-27)

ATHLETICS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Jenkins (Outs 1-8) → Kitler (Outs 9-22) → Appiah (Outs 23-23) → Rowe (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pagán (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Molina (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Caspersen (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saunders (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Noel (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Diémé (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cagle (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Fink (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Athletics (home) batted second; Padres batted first.
  First pitch 2:00 PM PT. Weather: 62°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain. seed 365799.
  Walk-Back runs: off Wilcox 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 4.50
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 1.33
     9 outs left: 1.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 7 Israel Fernández Ludlow MacCracken (2B) 1–0 —
T 8 Chet Batt Chet Batt (2B) 2–0 —
T 16 Reed Lettiere Lucas Clarke (3B) 3–0 —
T 22 Mark Pearman Trevor Deery (2B) 4–0 —
T 23 Bertram Wilcox Chet Batt (3B) 5–0 —
T 23 Bertram Wilcox Huntley Cleveland (2B) 6–0 —
T 23 Chet Batt Bertram Wilcox (3B) 7–0 —
B 10 Chet Noel Martin Leat (3B) 7–1 1.24
B 11 Wilfredo Molina Martin Leat (3B) 7–2 1.12
B 14 Mathis Diémé Mathis Diémé (HR) 7–3 1.15
B 14 Modesto Pagán Mathis Diémé (3B) 7–4 0.92
B 24 Rodrigo Benítez Modesto Pagán (2B) 7–5 3.00
B 26 Frank Gerlach Stefan Banuelos (3B) 7–6 6.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 4.50
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 1.33
9 outs left 1.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 350' · CF 450' · RF 346' · 13' wall). Cavernous.
Death Valley
Padres — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 6 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
350' 450' 346' Bertram Wilcox — single · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Zane Staten — fielders_choice · EV 80 mph · LA -3° · 76 ft Trevor Deery — fly_out · EV 57 mph · LA +33° · 117 ft Keshav Atehortua — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Chet Batt — double · EV 92 mph · LA +40° · 333 ft Ludlow MacCracken — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 142 ft Mark Pearman — single · EV 86 mph · LA -1° · 82 ft Reed Lettiere — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +48° · 337 ft Lucas Clarke — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +22° · 181 ft Israel Fernández — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA +14° · 62 ft Keshav Atehortua — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +35° · 319 ft Teferi Alemu — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA -3° · 56 ft Trevor Deery — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 222 ft Zane Staten — single · EV 63 mph · LA +12° · 64 ft Mark Pearman — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -12° · 79 ft Bertram Wilcox — double · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 309 ft Chet Batt — single · EV 83 mph · LA +4° · 79 ft Israel Fernández — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -16° · 62 ft Trevor Deery — single · EV 83 mph · LA +13° · 120 ft Zane Staten — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 316 ft Israel Fernández — double · EV 97 mph · LA +12° · 147 ft
Athletics — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
350' 450' 346' Erwin Cagle — double · EV 108 mph · LA +16° · 250 ft Mathis Diémé — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA +9° · 93 ft Wilfredo Molina — single · EV 63 mph · LA +26° · 125 ft Chet Noel — double_play · EV 84 mph · LA -6° · 80 ft Frank Gerlach — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +28° · 236 ft Alex Zago — fly_out · EV 75 mph · LA +44° · 227 ft Rodrigo Benítez — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +15° · 130 ft Chet Noel — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +27° · 246 ft Wilfredo Molina — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +48° · 301 ft Val Caspersen — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +8° · 81 ft Mathis Diémé — hr · EV 104 mph · LA +47° · 435 ft Modesto Pagán — infield_single · EV 68 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Erwin Cagle — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +40° · 312 ft Cannon Sinclair — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +34° · 273 ft Alex Zago — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 303 ft Modesto Pagán — double · EV 98 mph · LA +43° · 380 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Padres
54% deserve-to-win  ·  7.3 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -0.3 vs expected
contact: 10.6 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+1.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Reed Lettiere 92 / +48° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Chet Batt 92 / +40° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Keshav Atehortua 92 / +35° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Zane Staten 92 / +34° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Bertram Wilcox 100 / +26° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Athletics
46% deserve-to-win  ·  6.7 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -0.7 vs expected
contact: 12.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-2.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Erwin Cagle 89 / +40° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Wilfredo Molina 63 / +26° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.87
Mathis Diémé 88 / +9° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Alex Zago 92 / +32° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Mathis Diémé 104 / +47° Center Home Run 3.3 → 4 +0.67
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