==============================================================================
Tigers 7, Expos 6                                            2026-06-14 · #784
at Huerta Stadium
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Detroit                 7    7   10    1
Montreal                6    6   11    0

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Delatte     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Peavy       lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-McMicha pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Zheng       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Cotzumalgua cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Grimaldo    1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Kuchiki     rf ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Day         2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Lutmer      c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Acebo   pr ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Carson      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Posa    pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Borden      c  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Monroe  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Whorisk ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Ndiaye  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Soldan      j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  30   7  10   2   0   0   6   4  12   0   0  0.333
  2B: Soldan (4), Acebo (3).
  SB: McMichael (3), Kuchiki (6).
  CS: Cotzumalguapa (4), Kuchiki (3).
  E: Delatte (9).
  a-Ran for Peavy in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Lutmer in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Carson in the 3rd.
  d-Batted in the 6th.
  e-Singled for Acebo in the 6th.
  f-Ran in the 7th.

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Moreira     lf ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   2   1   0   1   0  0.667
Grizzlies   c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Walsh       cf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Creek       2b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Solórzano   3b ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Mondeville  rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Dienelt     1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Triguei pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rosales     ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Huitema pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   1   0  0.500
Chará       p  ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
  c-Quinter pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Currier     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Gibson      j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Morales     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   6  11   1   0   0   5   5   4   2   0  0.379
  2B: Solórzano (6).
  SB: Moreira (10), Grizzlies (8), Solórzano (3).
  HBP: Trigueiro (1).
  GIDP: Walsh (3), Creek (3).
  a-Ran for Dienelt in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Rosales in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Chará in the 9th.

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Carson (W, 2-3) .....    28   21  78%   10    5    4    4    2    0   84    -
Okonkwo .............     7    6  22%    1    1    1    1    2    0   22  2-0

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Chará ...............    13    9  33%    5    2    2    1    4    0   44    -
Zamora (L, 0-2) .....    12    9  33%    3    3    3    1    7    0   37  2-1
Juarez ..............     8    6  22%    1    2    2    2    1    0   27  1-0

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Carson (Outs 1-21) → Okonkwo (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Borden (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Grimaldo (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Day (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Zheng (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Delatte (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cotzumalguapa (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kuchiki (Outs 1-27)

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-24)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Chará (Outs 1-9) → Zamora (Outs 10-18) → Juarez (Outs 19-24)
CATCHER (C)       | Grizzlies (Outs 1-24)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dienelt (Outs 1-24)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Creek (Outs 1-24)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Solórzano (Outs 1-24)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Rosales (Outs 1-24)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moreira (Outs 1-24)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Walsh (Outs 1-24)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Mondeville (Outs 1-24)

  Batting order: Expos (home) batted first; Tigers batted second.
  First pitch 1:10 PM ET. Weather: 72°F · Wind out · Clear. seed 530530.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 1.20
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 0.67
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 6 Ozziel Moreira Raymond Trigueiro (3B) 0–1 —
B 13 Jenson Huitema Jenson Huitema (3B) 0–2 —
B 15 Ozziel Moreira Rónald Solórzano (3B) 0–3 —
B 19 Rónald Solórzano Fran Creek (1B) 0–4 —
B 20 Jenson Huitema Rónald Solórzano (3B) 0–5 —
B 26 Fran Creek Augusto Quinteros (2B) 0–6 —
T 7 Raymond Acebo Malcolm Posa (1B) 1–6 0.90
T 7 Raymond Acebo Raymond Acebo (2B) 2–6 0.75
T 15 Thai-Son Whoriskey Rocky Kuchiki (3B) 3–6 1.00
T 15 Thai-Son Whoriskey Barry McMichael (2B) 4–6 0.75
T 18 Jon Grimaldo Gardnar Ndiaye (3B) 5–6 0.67
T 23 Cooper Monroe Kenyatta Soldan (2B) 6–6 0.75
T 24 Zixuan Zheng Trevor Borden (3B) 7–6 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 1.20
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Huerta Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 288' · CF 412' · RF 348' · 50' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Tigers — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
288' 412' 348' Wall 50' Ed Peavy — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +26° · 218 ft Rocky Kuchiki — single · EV 104 mph · LA -6° · 99 ft Christian Day — infield_single · EV 71 mph · LA +8° · 68 ft Liam Lutmer — single · EV 84 mph · LA +17° · 159 ft Fatt Carson — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +12° · 104 ft Raymond Acebo — double · EV 97 mph · LA +40° · 368 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — single · EV 98 mph · LA +24° · 281 ft Rocky Kuchiki — single · EV 78 mph · LA +12° · 98 ft Ed Peavy — single · EV 56 mph · LA -10° · 53 ft Aleksandar Delatte — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +17° · 161 ft Kenyatta Soldan — double · EV 107 mph · LA +32° · 406 ft Cooper Monroe — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -20° · 62 ft Jon Grimaldo — infield_single · EV 70 mph · LA -12° · 67 ft Yimmi Cotzumalguapa — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +31° · 325 ft Aleksandar Delatte — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +25° · 275 ft
Expos — Batted Balls
26 BIP· 10 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
288' 412' 348' Wall 50' Ozziel Moreira — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 307 ft Maciek Grizzlies — single · EV 92 mph · LA +24° · 248 ft Nathan Walsh — single · EV 52 mph · LA +15° · 60 ft Fran Creek — double_play · EV 94 mph · LA +6° · 89 ft Rónald Solórzano — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 222 ft Franklin Mondeville — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Cameron Dienelt — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 113 ft Douglas Chará — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 104 ft Raymond Trigueiro — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +37° · 324 ft Jenson Huitema — single · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 174 ft Elliott Currier — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 110 ft Curt Gibson — single · EV 55 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Ozziel Moreira — single · EV 76 mph · LA +42° · 230 ft Maciek Grizzlies — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 237 ft Nathan Walsh — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 170 ft Rónald Solórzano — single · EV 76 mph · LA -20° · 72 ft Douglas Chará — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +42° · 229 ft Fran Creek — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Ozziel Moreira — single · EV 78 mph · LA +8° · 70 ft Maciek Grizzlies — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +16° · 137 ft Nathan Walsh — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -21° · 72 ft Rónald Solórzano — double · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 128 ft Franklin Mondeville — error · EV 92 mph · LA -6° · 87 ft Douglas Chará — single · EV 92 mph · LA +37° · 326 ft Ozziel Moreira — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +41° · 260 ft Maciek Grizzlies — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 143 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Tigers
19% deserve-to-win  ·  5.4 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +1.6 vs expected
contact: 11.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0
running: 2 SB · 2 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yimmi Cotzumalguapa 96 / +31° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Ed Peavy 56 / -10° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Jon Grimaldo 70 / -12° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Christian Day 71 / +8° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Aleksandar Delatte 94 / +25° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Expos
81% deserve-to-win  ·  11.2 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -5.2 vs expected
contact: 12.9 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rónald Solórzano 92 / +11° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Ozziel Moreira 92 / +32° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Raymond Trigueiro 92 / +37° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Maciek Grizzlies 92 / +22° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Ozziel Moreira 76 / +42° Pull Stay 0.1 → 1 +0.85
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →