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Beavers 3, Athletics 2                                       2026-06-15 · #795
at The Oval
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                        1    R    H    E
Oakland                 2    2    4    0
Portland                3    3    2    0

ATHLETICS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cagle       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sinclair    1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Caspersen   c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Fink        rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Moros       lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Noel        ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  a-Leat    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sutton      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Zago        2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0  1.000
MacPhie     p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Pagán   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Molina  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Vásquez pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Gerlach ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Banuelo pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Taygan      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Benítez     j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   2   4   0   0   0   2   4   5   1   0  0.154
  HBP: Cagle (2), Noel (1).
  a-Ran for Noel in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for MacPhie in the 3rd.
  c-Batted in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Leat in the 3rd.
  e-Batted in the 4th.
  f-Ran in the 6th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Harper      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tessema     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rabess      rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hydrick     ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pawsat      lf ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Zamora      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Streko      cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Wolfe       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Martín  pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                   9   3   2   1   0   1   3   0   2   0   0  0.222
  2B: Pawsat (8).
  HR: Martín (2), off MacPhie.
  a-Ran in the 3rd.

ATHLETICS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
MacPhie (L, 1-3) ....    10    7  26%    2    3    3    0    3    1   29    -

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Lindsay (W, 2-12) ...    30   27 100%    3    2    2    4    5    0  117    -

ATHLETICS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-7)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | MacPhie (Outs 1-7)
CATCHER (C)       | Caspersen (Outs 1-7)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Sinclair (Outs 1-7)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Zago (Outs 1-7)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sutton (Outs 1-7)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Noel (Outs 1-7)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moros (Outs 1-7)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cagle (Outs 1-7)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Fink (Outs 1-7)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Lindsay (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Zamora (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Harper (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Wolfe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hydrick (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Pawsat (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Streko (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Rabess (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted second; Athletics batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 66°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 53559.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.33    Peak faced 0.45
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 12 Mirko Moros Martin Leat (3B) 1–0 —
T 20 Frank Gerlach Stefan Banuelos (3B) 2–0 —
B 7 Nicolas Martín Quinn Pawsat (2B) 2–1 0.30
B 7 Nicolas Martín Nicolas Martín (1B) 2–2 0.15
B 7 Nicolas Martín Nicolas Martín (—) 2–3 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.33
Peak faced 0.45
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Athletics — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Carson Fink — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +46° · 338 ft Alex Zago — single · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Modesto Pagán — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +43° · 230 ft Rick Taygan — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +46° · 231 ft Wilfredo Molina — fly_out · EV 54 mph · LA +48° · 114 ft Rodrigo Benítez — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -2° · 49 ft Stefan Banuelos — single · EV 61 mph · LA +14° · 70 ft Mirko Moros — single · EV 92 mph · LA +39° · 332 ft Carson Fink — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft Cannon Sinclair — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +14° · 118 ft Rick Taygan — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 115 ft Rodrigo Benítez — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +52° · 223 ft Mirko Moros — error · EV 56 mph · LA -19° · 53 ft Val Caspersen — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 186 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
7 BIP· 0 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Kyle Rabess — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +39° · 304 ft Bonsa Tessema — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -7° · 95 ft Quinn Pawsat — double · EV 104 mph · LA +37° · 418 ft Donis Zamora — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +28° · 262 ft Mekhi Streko — line_out · EV 101 mph · LA +13° · 183 ft Xzavier Wolfe — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +30° · 269 ft Nicolas Martín — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +32° · 435 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Athletics
52% deserve-to-win  ·  3.6 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -1.6 vs expected
contact: 5.1 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-2.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Carson Fink 92 / +46° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Rick Taygan 92 / +10° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Alex Zago 76 / +6° Pull Stay 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Stefan Banuelos 61 / +14° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Cannon Sinclair 78 / +14° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Beavers
48% deserve-to-win  ·  3.5 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 9.2 est bases + 0 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-3.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Nicolas Martín 110 / +32° Oppo Home Run 2.2 → 4 +1.75
Mekhi Streko 101 / +13° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Kyle Rabess 88 / +39° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Quinn Pawsat 104 / +37° Pull Double 2.9 → 2 -0.88
Donis Zamora 89 / +28° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
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