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Canaries 7, Marlins 5                                        2026-06-15 · #796
at New Jersey Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Miami                   5    5    4    0
New Jersey              7    7    7    0

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Baird       p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Enterline   rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mothudi     c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Vildoza     ss ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Groves      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Ashley      1b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.250
Mangin      lf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Altamirano  2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Narazak pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Enquist     cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Burns       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   5   4   1   0   0   5   4  13   0   1  0.148
  2B: Ashley (5).
  HBP: Mothudi (1).
  GIDP: Mangin (8).
  a-Ran for Altamirano in the 7th.

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Kerr        rf ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Brickhandle 1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cordero     ss ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.333
Fishbach    c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Haliburton  p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Morriso pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Lacava      3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Akers   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Carmona     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Hlavack pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tejeda      lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
  d-Granber ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Ali     ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Conway  ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  g-Levells ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  h-Gutierr pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  i-Barron  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  20   7   7   1   0   1   7   2   2   0   1  0.350
  2B: Cordero (25).
  HR: Kerr (11), off Baird.
  SB: Akers (10).
  CS: Hlavacka (9).
  HBP: Fishbach (7).
  a-Ran for Haliburton in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Lacava in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Carmona in the 5th.
  d-Singled for Tejeda in the 5th.
  e-Batted for Morrison in the 4th.
  f-Batted for Akers in the 5th.
  g-Singled in the 5th.
  h-Ran for Conway in the 6th.
  i-Ran for Gutierrez in the 6th.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Baird (L, 3-9) ......    22   17  63%    7    7    6    2    2    1   59    -

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Haliburton (W, 5-2) .    32   27 100%    4    5    5    4   13    0  112    -

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-17)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Baird (Outs 1-17)
CATCHER (C)       | Mothudi (Outs 1-17)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Ashley (Outs 1-17)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Altamirano (Outs 1-17)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Groves (Outs 1-17)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vildoza (Outs 1-17)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mangin (Outs 1-17)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-17)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-17)

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Haliburton (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Brickhandler (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tejeda (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Carmona (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Canaries (home) batted second; Marlins batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 60°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain. seed 441925.
  Walk-Back runs: off Baird 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 2 Tennys Groves Jacobe Mothudi (2B) 1–0
T 3 Norm Ashley Máximo Vildoza (2B) 2–0
T 9 Máximo Vildoza Norm Ashley (3B) 3–0
T 13 Treston Baird Devon Mangin (3B) 4–0
T 19 Wallace Enterline Keishiro Narazaki (2B) 5–0
B 0 Jerome Kerr Andrea Kramer (1B) 5–1
B 0 Jerome Kerr Jerome Kerr (HR) 5–2
B 2 Deylin Fishbach Jerome Kerr (3B) 5–3
B 10 Deylin Fishbach Fritz Akers (3B) 5–4
B 17 Grant Cordero Jake Levells (3B) 5–5
B 17 Grant Cordero Brandon Barron (2B) 5–6
B 17 Grant Cordero Deylin Fishbach (1B) 5–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to New Jersey Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 403' · RF 324' · 40' wall). Balanced.
Marlins — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Treston Baird — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +1° · 76 ft Wallace Enterline — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -2° · 63 ft Jacobe Mothudi — single · EV 77 mph · LA +5° · 73 ft Máximo Vildoza — single · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft Tennys Groves — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Norm Ashley — double · EV 86 mph · LA +37° · 287 ft Jason Enquist — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA +2° · 53 ft Jean Altamirano — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -6° · 63 ft Máximo Vildoza — single · EV 86 mph · LA +21° · 196 ft Jacobe Mothudi — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +19° · 166 ft Máximo Vildoza — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -23° · 76 ft Wallace Enterline — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +7° · 77 ft Devon Mangin — double_play · EV 78 mph · LA -15° · 74 ft
Canaries — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Andrea Kramer — single · EV 84 mph · LA -14° · 79 ft Jerome Kerr — hr · EV 103 mph · LA +47° · 424 ft Jam Brickhandler — line_out · EV 107 mph · LA +26° · 358 ft Grant Cordero — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Deylin Fishbach — single · EV 98 mph · LA +7° · 93 ft Rodmond Ali — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +31° · 318 ft Leo Conway — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +16° · 165 ft Prakash Granberry — single · EV 81 mph · LA -2° · 77 ft Jake Levells — single · EV 97 mph · LA +19° · 235 ft Andrea Kramer — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +52° · 270 ft Jerome Kerr — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +40° · 366 ft Jam Brickhandler — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +17° · 200 ft Deylin Fishbach — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +38° · 314 ft Boris Carmona — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA +4° · 85 ft Leo Conway — single · EV 68 mph · LA +16° · 97 ft Grant Cordero — double · EV 78 mph · LA +47° · 242 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
14% deserve-to-win  ·  2.9 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +2.1 vs expected
contact: 4.2 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+0.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Norm Ashley 86 / +37° Center Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Jacobe Mothudi 77 / +5° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.74
Jacobe Mothudi 81 / +19° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.63
Máximo Vildoza 100 / +5° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Máximo Vildoza 86 / +21° Oppo Single 0.6 → 1 +0.37
Canaries
86% deserve-to-win  ·  7.4 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 13.4 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-2.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jam Brickhandler 107 / +26° Center Out 2.0 → 0 -2.03
Grant Cordero 78 / +47° Pull Double 0.1 → 2 +1.86
Jerome Kerr 96 / +40° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.43
Jerome Kerr 103 / +47° Center Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.41
Rodmond Ali 95 / +31° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.08
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