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Padres 17, Stars 16  (4 SI)                                  2026-06-16 · #808
at Neviaser Bowl
==============================================================================

                        1      S    R    H    E
San Diego              16      1   17   15    0
Nashville              16      0   16   16    0

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Alemu       nf ......    5   3   3   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.600
  a-Deery   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Johnston    c  ......    3   3   2   0   0   1   3   2   0   0   0  0.667
  b-MacCrac pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Fernández   lf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Batt        3b ......    4   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Najar       rf ......    6   2   2   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
Andrade     2b ......    5   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Atehortua   1b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   2   3   1   0   0  0.250
Wada        p  ......    6   2   3   0   0   0   3   0   2   1   0  0.500
Miranda     ss ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   4   0   0   0  0.333
  c-Lettier ph ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.500
Cleveland   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  45  17  15   5   0   1  16  11  14   1   0  0.333
  2B: Alemu (3), Lettiere (13), Fernández (12), Najar (2), Atehortua (6).
  HR: Johnston (1), off Kekahuna.
  SB: Najar (2).
  HBP: Batt (2), Wada (2).
  a-Ran for Alemu in the 10th.
  b-Ran for Johnston in the 10th.
  c-Batted in the 4th.

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cantey      c  ......    5   4   4   3   0   1   6   0   0   0   0  0.800
Karouani    1b ......    3   1   2   0   0   1   1   1   1   0   0  0.667
  a-Gaubert pr ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Sappington  lf ......    6   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Fusano      2b ......    6   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.333
Hansen      rf ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Coupe       3b ......    5   1   2   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.400
Spence      ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gayton      cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Cooper  ph ......    3   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Falcao      p  ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   1  0.333
  c-Burani  ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Giannou     j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  45  16  16   6   0   3  16   6  13   0   1  0.356
  2B: Cantey 3 (25), Fusano (7), Coupe (1), Giannou (5).
  HR: Cantey (5), off Wada; Karouani (3), off Zavala; Cooper (12), off Zavala.
  CS: Sappington (3).
  HBP: Cantey (5).
  a-Ran for Karouani in the 5th.
  b-Batted for Gayton in the 5th.
  c-Batted in the 8th.

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wada (W, 6-5) .......    39   30 111%   11    7    6    3   12    1  158    -
Zavala ..............    13    6  22%    5    9    8    3    1    2   48  1-0

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Falcao (L, 3-4) .....    33   21  78%    7    7    7    5    8    0  137    -
Faríñez .............     8    3  11%    2    4    4    3    2    0   34  1-1
Forrest .............     5    4  15%    2    4    4    1    3    0   22  2-2
Kekahuna ............    10    8  30%    2    2    2    2    1    1   42    -

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-36)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wada (Outs 1-30) → Zavala (Outs 31-36)
CATCHER (C)       | Johnston (Outs 1-36)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-36)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Andrade (Outs 1-36)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Batt (Outs 1-36)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Miranda (Outs 1-36)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-36)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | —
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Najar (Outs 1-36)

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-36)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Falcao (Outs 1-21) → Faríñez (Outs 22-24) → Forrest (Outs 25-28) → Kekahuna (Outs 29-36)
CATCHER (C)       | Cantey (Outs 1-36)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Karouani (Outs 1-36)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Fusano (Outs 1-36)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Coupe (Outs 1-36)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Spence (Outs 1-36)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Sappington (Outs 1-36)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-36)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Hansen (Outs 1-36)

  Batting order: Stars (home) batted first; Padres batted second.
  Super-innings: 4.
  Seconds: SDP o24 (16-16), NSH o24 (16-0).
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 78°F · Wind cross · Clear · Heavy rain. seed 258435.
  Powerplays: Padres — Alemu NF (O1)
  Walk-Back runs: off Wada 1, off Zavala 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 7 Hugo Falcao Tracy Fusano (3B) 0–1
B 7 Oliver Cantey Hugo Falcao (1B) 0–2
B 7 Oliver Cantey Oliver Cantey (HR) 0–3
B 8 Wallace Sappington Oliver Cantey (3B) 0–4
B 15 Samuel Giannou Jaime Gaubert (2B) 0–5
B 15 Samuel Giannou Hugo Falcao (1B) 0–6
B 18 Tracy Fusano Samuel Giannou (3B) 0–7
B 20 Khosilot El Karouani Khosilot El Karouani (HR) 0–8
B 22 Bruno Cooper Oliver Cantey (2B) 0–9
B 22 Bruno Cooper Bruno Cooper (HR) 0–10
B 22 Hady Coupe Bruno Cooper (3B) 0–11
B 22 Hady Coupe Justo Burani (1B) 0–12
B 24 Oliver Cantey Hady Coupe (3B) 0–13
B 24 Oliver Cantey Bradley Hansen (2B) 0–14
B 24 Oliver Cantey Jaime Gaubert (1B) 0–15
B 24 Oliver Cantey Oliver Cantey (2B) 0–16
T 3 Fernán Johnston Israel Fernández (2B) 1–16
T 3 Teferi Alemu Fernán Johnston (1B) 2–16
T 3 Keshav Atehortua Teferi Alemu (2B) 3–16
T 6 Teferi Alemu Daylan Miranda (3B) 4–16
T 9 Yoshimar Najar Ichiya Wada (3B) 5–16
T 9 Yoshimar Najar Keshav Atehortua (2B) 6–16
T 10 Reed Lettiere Yoshimar Najar (3B) 7–16
T 10 Reed Lettiere Chet Batt (1B) 8–16
T 12 Teferi Alemu Yoshimar Najar (3B) 9–16
T 12 Teferi Alemu Haxzel Andrade (2B) 10–16
T 13 Ichiya Wada Fernán Johnston (3B) 11–16
T 13 Daylan Miranda Teferi Alemu (2B) 12–16
T 14 Ichiya Wada Ichiya Wada (3B) 13–16
T 14 Ichiya Wada Daylan Miranda (2B) 14–16
T 17 Fernán Johnston Teferi Alemu (1B) 15–16
T 17 Fernán Johnston Fernán Johnston (HR) 16–16
ST 38 Keshav Atehortua Chet Batt (2B) 17–16
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Neviaser Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 279' · CF 373' · RF 278' · 12' wall). The Bandbox.
Padres — Batted Balls
25 BIP· 7 1B · 5 XBH · 1 HR
279' 373' 278' Israel Fernández — double · EV 98 mph · LA +17° · 212 ft Fernán Johnston — single · EV 85 mph · LA +4° · 81 ft Teferi Alemu — double · EV 96 mph · LA +16° · 197 ft Keshav Atehortua — double · EV 88 mph · LA +26° · 247 ft Ichiya Wada — fielders_choice · EV 74 mph · LA +6° · 71 ft Daylan Miranda — fly_out · EV 71 mph · LA +40° · 196 ft Reed Lettiere — double · EV 115 mph · LA +10° · 182 ft Yoshimar Najar — double · EV 87 mph · LA +21° · 203 ft Daylan Miranda — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 113 ft Yoshimar Najar — fielders_choice · EV 86 mph · LA -2° · 82 ft Teferi Alemu — single · EV 65 mph · LA +18° · 102 ft Fernán Johnston — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +35° · 449 ft Haxzel Andrade — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -4° · 71 ft Chet Batt — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +14° · 146 ft Daylan Miranda — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA -3° · 90 ft Reed Lettiere — single · EV 87 mph · LA +15° · 153 ft Keshav Atehortua — error · EV 59 mph · LA -20° · 56 ft Ichiya Wada — single · EV 96 mph · LA -26° · 91 ft Teferi Alemu — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA -9° · 86 ft Yoshimar Najar — single · EV 77 mph · LA +12° · 98 ft Haxzel Andrade — error · EV 79 mph · LA -7° · 75 ft Keshav Atehortua — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Ichiya Wada — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -11° · 62 ft Teferi Alemu — single · EV 104 mph · LA -12° · 99 ft Yoshimar Najar — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA +5° · 85 ft
Stars — Batted Balls
29 BIP· 7 1B · 6 XBH · 3 HR
279' 373' 278' Oliver Cantey — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 286 ft Khosilot El Karouani — single · EV 100 mph · LA -7° · 95 ft Wallace Sappington — single · EV 88 mph · LA +13° · 134 ft Tracy Fusano — single · EV 100 mph · LA -14° · 95 ft Bradley Hansen — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -23° · 84 ft Hugo Falcao — single · EV 88 mph · LA +7° · 84 ft Samuel Giannou — double · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 335 ft Justo Burani — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +28° · 243 ft Oliver Cantey — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +41° · 480 ft Wallace Sappington — single · EV 84 mph · LA +6° · 80 ft Edwin Gayton — single · EV 88 mph · LA -10° · 84 ft Hady Coupe — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -15° · 84 ft Hugo Falcao — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -8° · 81 ft Bruno Cooper — hr · EV 115 mph · LA +38° · 480 ft Sean Spence — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -21° · 84 ft Bradley Hansen — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +25° · 207 ft Tracy Fusano — double · EV 100 mph · LA +27° · 323 ft Wallace Sappington — ground_out · EV 113 mph · LA -18° · 108 ft Khosilot El Karouani — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +34° · 370 ft Hady Coupe — double · EV 98 mph · LA +22° · 264 ft Oliver Cantey — double · EV 119 mph · LA +18° · 331 ft Bruno Cooper — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -14° · 58 ft Hugo Falcao — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +10° · 127 ft Wallace Sappington — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 304 ft Oliver Cantey — double · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 263 ft Bradley Hansen — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA -0° · 92 ft Hady Coupe — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +12° · 150 ft Oliver Cantey — double · EV 78 mph · LA +35° · 228 ft Hady Coupe — single · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 163 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Padres
37% deserve-to-win  ·  13.1 expected runs
actual 17 runs  ·  +3.9 vs expected
contact: 16.9 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 21.0 (+4.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yoshimar Najar 87 / +21° Center Double 0.6 → 2 +1.37
Keshav Atehortua 88 / +26° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Teferi Alemu 104 / -12° Oppo Single 1.8 → 1 -0.81
Israel Fernández 98 / +17° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.76
Teferi Alemu 96 / +16° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.76
Stars
63% deserve-to-win  ·  17.1 expected runs
actual 16 runs  ·  -1.1 vs expected
contact: 29.4 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 31.0 (+1.6 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Wallace Sappington 113 / -18° Oppo Out 2.2 → 0 -2.21
Khosilot El Karouani 100 / +34° Center Home Run 2.0 → 4 +2.05
Oliver Cantey 78 / +35° Pull Double 0.1 → 2 +1.93
Oliver Cantey 100 / +23° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Wallace Sappington 100 / +25° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.34
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