==============================================================================
Beavers 11, Athletics 6                                      2026-06-17 · #814
at The Oval
==============================================================================

                        1      2    R    H    E
Oakland                 6      0    6   10    1
Portland               11      -   11    9    0

ATHLETICS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Banuelos    3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Noel    pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Cagle       cf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.250
Diémé       lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Moros       1b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.333
Leat        2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Sutton      ss ......    3   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
  b-Weeks   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sawchuk     rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Gerlach ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Zago        c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Vásquez pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Nwosu       p  ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
  e-Fink    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Pagán   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Sinclai ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  h-Molina  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   6  10   2   1   0   6   3  17   0   0  0.323
  2B: Moros (16), Nwosu (1).
  3B: Sutton (1).
  CS: Noel (1), Leat (9).
  E: Banuelos (3).
  a-Ran for Banuelos in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Sutton in the 6th.
  c-Batted for Sawchuk in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Zago in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Nwosu in the 5th.
  f-Walked for Vásquez in the 5th.
  g-Batted for Noel in the 6th.
  h-Ran for Pagán in the 5th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Tapia       p  ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.333
Rabess      rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Wolfe   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Vahaly      ss ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Clement     lf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Hydrick     c  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Okey    pr ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Tessema     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Martín  pr ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Guerra      cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Pawsat      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Streko  ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Harper      1b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
  e-Schilli ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Zamora  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0   .000
Velazquez   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Redmayne    j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  32  11   9   4   0   0  10   6  10   0   0  0.281
  2B: Vahaly (9), Hydrick (1), Harper (4), Redmayne (3).
  SB: Vahaly (4).
  HBP: Zamora (1).
  a-Ran for Rabess in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Hydrick in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Tessema in the 3rd.
  d-Batted for Pawsat in the 8th.
  e-Singled for Harper in the 9th.
  f-Ran in the 7th.

ATHLETICS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Nwosu ...............    16   14  52%    3    2    2    0    5    0   59    -
Kitler ..............    11    7  26%    2    3    3    3    2    0   43    -
Rowe (L, 1-1) .......    10    4  15%    2    5    5    3    3    0   31  1-1
Dreyer ..............     2    2   7%    2    1    1    0    0    0    7  2-1

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Tapia (W, 3-8) ......    34   27 100%   10    6    6    3   18    0  129    -

ATHLETICS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Nwosu (Outs 1-14) → Kitler (Outs 15-21) → Rowe (Outs 22-25) → Dreyer (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Zago (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Moros (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Leat (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Banuelos (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Sutton (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Diémé (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cagle (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sawchuk (Outs 1-27)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Tapia (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Hydrick (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Harper (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Pawsat (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Clement (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guerra (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Rabess (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted first; Athletics batted second.
  Seconds: OAK o25 (6-11).
  First pitch 1:05 PM PT. Weather: 59°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 450551.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.33    Peak faced 9.00
    27 outs left: 1.33
    18 outs left: 1.50
     9 outs left: 2.00
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 11 Val Clement Francisco Vahaly (3B) 0–1 —
B 13 Yadier Guerra Rhyne Okey (3B) 0–2 —
B 17 Val Clement Angel Tapia (2B) 0–3 —
B 21 Sydney Redmayne Val Clement (2B) 0–4 —
B 21 Sydney Redmayne Yadier Guerra (1B) 0–5 —
B 22 Gabriel Harper Sydney Redmayne (2B) 0–6 —
B 22 Donis Zamora Gabriel Harper (3B) 0–7 —
B 23 Rhyne Okey Angel Tapia (3B) 0–8 —
B 25 Mekhi Streko Xzavier Wolfe (3B) 0–9 —
B 25 Mekhi Streko Donis Zamora (2B) 0–10 —
B 25 Ludlow Schillig Rhyne Okey (2B) 0–11 —
T 5 Ahmad Sawchuk Mirko Moros (2B) 1–11 1.50
T 7 Erwin Cagle Jan-Michael Nwosu (2B) 2–11 1.50
T 7 Stefan Banuelos Erwin Cagle (2B) 3–11 1.35
T 14 Jan-Michael Nwosu Alberto Vásquez (2B) 4–11 1.85
T 16 Arnold Sutton Carson Fink (2B) 5–11 1.91
T 16 Martin Leat Chad Weeks (3B) 6–11 1.64
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.33
Peak faced 9.00
27 outs left 1.33
18 outs left 1.50
9 outs left 2.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Athletics — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 7 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Mirko Moros — double · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 142 ft Ahmad Sawchuk — single · EV 103 mph · LA +26° · 333 ft Jan-Michael Nwosu — double · EV 94 mph · LA +18° · 210 ft Frank Gerlach — single · EV 83 mph · LA -25° · 79 ft Chad Weeks — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +2° · 49 ft Wilfredo Molina — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Erwin Cagle — single · EV 85 mph · LA -7° · 81 ft Mathis Diémé — single · EV 84 mph · LA -6° · 79 ft Stefan Banuelos — single · EV 89 mph · LA -12° · 85 ft Martin Leat — single · EV 95 mph · LA +12° · 142 ft Jan-Michael Nwosu — single · EV 79 mph · LA +20° · 161 ft Arnold Sutton — triple · EV 109 mph · LA +20° · 302 ft Martin Leat — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -8° · 66 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 5 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Angel Tapia — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +3° · 95 ft Kyle Rabess — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +5° · 90 ft Bonsa Tessema — error · EV 88 mph · LA -9° · 84 ft Yadier Guerra — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA -14° · 89 ft Xzavier Wolfe — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -12° · 79 ft Sydney Redmayne — double · EV 93 mph · LA +42° · 347 ft Ludlow Schillig — single · EV 97 mph · LA -14° · 92 ft Angel Tapia — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -14° · 73 ft Kyle Rabess — single · EV 88 mph · LA -11° · 84 ft Francisco Vahaly — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 188 ft Val Clement — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -24° · 72 ft Holcombe Hydrick — double · EV 96 mph · LA +29° · 317 ft Yadier Guerra — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -13° · 83 ft Quinn Pawsat — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +26° · 245 ft Mekhi Streko — single · EV 113 mph · LA +5° · 107 ft Val Clement — single · EV 78 mph · LA +7° · 74 ft Gabriel Harper — double · EV 96 mph · LA +18° · 222 ft Yadier Guerra — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +22° · 242 ft Angel Tapia — single · EV 92 mph · LA -11° · 87 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Athletics
6% deserve-to-win  ·  2.3 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +3.7 vs expected
contact: 8.4 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (+5.6 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Arnold Sutton 109 / +20° Pull Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.28
Jan-Michael Nwosu 94 / +18° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Mirko Moros 100 / +10° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Erwin Cagle 85 / -7° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Mathis Diémé 84 / -6° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Beavers
94% deserve-to-win  ·  8.9 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +2.1 vs expected
contact: 11.4 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (+1.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Holcombe Hydrick 96 / +29° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Yadier Guerra 94 / +22° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Sydney Redmayne 93 / +42° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
Gabriel Harper 96 / +18° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Francisco Vahaly 100 / +14° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →