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Reds 6, Royals 5                                             2026-06-17 · #815
at Pino Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Kansas City             5    5    6    2
Cincinnati              6    6    8    0

ROYALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Hackett     p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Tanguilig   lf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Sabella     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Inglis  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Rosales     3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Monson  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Linnehan    c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ekic        1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Espinoza    ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Gregory pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Hsia        rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Altamirano  cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Graham  ph ......    1   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Savarin pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Fontes  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Selden  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  h-Farley  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Coates      j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Florenzo    j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Press       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   5   6   2   1   0   5   6  10   0   0  0.222
  2B: Tanguilig (10), Coates (4).
  3B: Graham (2).
  SB: Ekic (1).
  CS: Inglis (2).
  E: Sabella (10), Monson (5).
  GIDP: Linnehan (4), Espinoza (4).
  a-Ran for Sabella in the 5th.
  b-Batted for Rosales in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Espinoza in the 7th.
  d-Tripled in the 4th.
  e-Ran in the 5th.
  f-Batted for Florenzo in the 5th.
  g-Singled for Coates in the 7th.
  h-Ran for Selden in the 7th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Subhash     ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Murakam pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Cox         2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.000
Gayton      cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Villalo ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Suarez      rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Goodwin ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Agnew       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
  d-Corozo  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
David       c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Tsoubanos   lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Dilworth    1b ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Dawkins     3b ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  e-Lyman   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Minda   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Warwick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   6   8   1   0   0   5   5   6   0   2  0.308
  2B: Dilworth (6).
  CS: Murakami (7).
  GIDP: Cox (2), Suarez (5).
  a-Ran for Subhash in the 7th.
  b-Batted for Gayton in the 6th.
  c-Walked for Suarez in the 6th.
  d-Batted for Agnew in the 5th.
  e-Ran for Dawkins in the 9th.
  f-Ran in the 7th.

ROYALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hackett (L, 9-4) ....    16   14  52%    5    3    3    2    4    0   49    -
Abe .................    14   10  37%    2    3    1    3    2    0   49  1-1

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Agnew (W, 6-9) ......    30   23  85%    6    5    5    6    8    0   95    -
Zamora ..............     3    4  15%    0    0    0    0    2    0   12  2-0

ROYALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-24)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hackett (Outs 1-14) → Abe (Outs 15-24)
CATCHER (C)       | Linnehan (Outs 1-24)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Ekic (Outs 1-24)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sabella (Outs 1-24)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rosales (Outs 1-24)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Espinoza (Outs 1-24)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tanguilig (Outs 1-24)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Altamirano (Outs 1-24)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Hsia (Outs 1-24)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Agnew (Outs 1-23) → Zamora (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | David (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dilworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Cox (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Dawkins (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Suarez (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted second; Royals batted first.
  First pitch 8:10 PM CT. Weather: 63°F · Wind in · Clear · Humid. seed 983666.
  Powerplays: Reds — Villalobos NF (O18)
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 10 George Graham Adalid Coates (2B) 1–0
T 14 Patrik Florenzo Devron Savarino (3B) 2–0
T 19 Mario Espinoza Patrik Florenzo (3B) 3–0
T 19 Tripp Ekic Ramon Altamirano (3B) 4–0
T 19 Tripp Ekic Randy Farley (2B) 5–0
B 6 Colton Agnew Ed Tsoubanos (3B) 5–1
B 12 Zachary Subhash Henri Dawkins (3B) 5–2
B 12 Ed Tsoubanos Thomas Gayton (3B) 5–3
B 15 Shelby Warwick Bret David (2B) 5–4
B 24 Blaise Dilworth Emmanuel Murakami (2B) 5–5
B 24 Devron Villalobos Carr Lyman (3B) 5–6
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Royals — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Landon Tanguilig — double · EV 108 mph · LA +20° · 300 ft Efraín Sabella — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +13° · 113 ft Rich Linnehan — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA +8° · 56 ft Tripp Ekic — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 169 ft Mario Espinoza — double_play · EV 78 mph · LA -7° · 74 ft Adalid Coates — double · EV 93 mph · LA +12° · 138 ft George Graham — triple · EV 110 mph · LA +25° · 376 ft Patrik Florenzo — single · EV 68 mph · LA +20° · 122 ft Yamil Fontes — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +3° · 78 ft Chico Press — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +40° · 228 ft Chris Selden — single · EV 72 mph · LA -7° · 68 ft Ramon Altamirano — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +18° · 169 ft Finn Hackett — fly_out · EV 102 mph · LA +30° · 365 ft Adalid Coates — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +43° · 362 ft Tripp Ekic — single · EV 89 mph · LA +36° · 297 ft Rich Linnehan — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Ramon Altamirano — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -16° · 62 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 6 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Ed Tsoubanos — single · EV 53 mph · LA -11° · 51 ft Zachary Subhash — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA +1° · 53 ft Agustin Cox — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 116 ft Thomas Gayton — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft Colton Agnew — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 167 ft Carter Suarez — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 69 ft Shelby Warwick — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 78 ft Devron Villalobos — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 167 ft Henri Dawkins — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 86 ft Blaise Dilworth — single · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Zachary Subhash — single · EV 76 mph · LA -17° · 72 ft Bret David — single · EV 80 mph · LA +14° · 120 ft Agustin Cox — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -21° · 72 ft Devron Villalobos — error · EV 53 mph · LA -6° · 50 ft Henri Dawkins — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 100 ft Blaise Dilworth — error · EV 52 mph · LA -11° · 49 ft Bret David — line_out · EV 57 mph · LA +14° · 60 ft Henri Dawkins — single · EV 56 mph · LA +20° · 78 ft Blaise Dilworth — double · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 144 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Royals
74% deserve-to-win  ·  8.2 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -3.2 vs expected
contact: 12.8 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-2.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Adalid Coates 95 / +43° Oppo Out 2.0 → 0 -2.01
Finn Hackett 102 / +30° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.34
Adalid Coates 93 / +12° Oppo Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Tripp Ekic 92 / +15° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
George Graham 110 / +25° Oppo Triple 2.2 → 3 +0.77
Reds
26% deserve-to-win  ·  4.9 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +1.1 vs expected
contact: 7.1 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+0.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Blaise Dilworth 92 / +13° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Ed Tsoubanos 53 / -11° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Zachary Subhash 76 / -17° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Blaise Dilworth 76 / +2° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Henri Dawkins 56 / +20° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
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