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Tigers 4, Orioles 3                                          2026-06-18 · #825
at Kuvvatov Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Baltimore               3    3    3    0
Detroit                 4    4    3    0

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Sprague     p  ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Kautz       rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Bannatyne   cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Heath   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Foust       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-López   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Samudio     ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Stokke  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Spoelstra   3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Alison      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Maloney ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Purchase    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Michulk pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kagame      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Schloss ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Thompson    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  22   3   3   1   0   0   2   8   8   0   1  0.136
  2B: Sprague (1).
  CS: Bannatyne (8), Maloney (12).
  GIDP: Stokke (1), Schloss (2).
  a-Struck out for Bannatyne in the 9th.
  b-Ran for Foust in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Samudio in the 3rd.
  d-Batted for Alison in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Purchase in the 3rd.
  f-Batted in the 6th.

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Peavy       lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Whoriskey   2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cotzumalgua cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Grimaldo    1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Zheng       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ndiaye      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Delatte ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sears       rf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Lutmer      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Acebo   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Okonkwo     p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-McMicha pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Kuchiki ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Borden  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Soldan      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  19   4   3   0   0   0   2   2  10   0   0  0.158
  CS: McMichael (5).
  HBP: Soldan (2).
  a-Struck out for Ndiaye in the 9th.
  b-Ran for Lutmer in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Okonkwo in the 7th.
  d-Pinch-hit in the 5th.
  e-Ran in the 6th.

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sprague .............     8    7  26%    0    0    0    0    3    0   27    -
Storako (L, 2-1) ....    11    8  30%    2    3    3    1    7    0   47  1-0
Campos ..............     3    2   7%    0    1    1    1    1    0   16  2-1

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Okonkwo (W, 8-2) ....    30   27 100%    3    3    3    8    8    0  124    -

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-17)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Sprague (Outs 1-7) → Storako (Outs 8-15) → Campos (Outs 16-17)
CATCHER (C)       | Kagame (Outs 1-17)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-17)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Foust (Outs 1-17)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Spoelstra (Outs 1-17)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Samudio (Outs 1-17)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Purchase (Outs 1-17)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Bannatyne (Outs 1-17)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kautz (Outs 1-17)

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Okonkwo (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Lutmer (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Grimaldo (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Whoriskey (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Ndiaye (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Zheng (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cotzumalguapa (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sears (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Tigers (home) batted second; Orioles batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 64°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 75.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.60
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 2 Lawrence Spoelstra Victor Sprague (3B) 1–0 —
T 5 Junior Kagame Doug Bannatyne (3B) 2–0 —
T 11 Rill Kautz Maciek Stokke (3B) 3–0 —
B 7 Carter Okonkwo Raymond Acebo (2B) 3–1 0.45
B 14 Rocky Kuchiki Barry McMichael (3B) 3–2 0.46
B 15 Barry McMichael Ricki Sears (3B) 3–3 0.25
B 17 Aleksandar Delatte Trevor Borden (3B) 3–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.60
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kuvvatov Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 307' · CF 431' · RF 353' · 43' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Orioles — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
307' 431' 353' Wall 43' Victor Sprague — double · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 301 ft Sidney Foust — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 113 ft Dylan Purchase — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +25° · 175 ft Lawrence Spoelstra — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 89 ft Maciek Stokke — double_play · EV 65 mph · LA +6° · 62 ft Destyn Thompson — fielders_choice · EV 59 mph · LA -12° · 56 ft Zaimir Schloss — double_play · EV 66 mph · LA -20° · 62 ft Alan Maloney — single · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 218 ft Junior Kagame — fly_out · EV 54 mph · LA +26° · 94 ft Doug Bannatyne — single · EV 62 mph · LA +12° · 66 ft Junior Kagame — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +42° · 253 ft
Tigers — Batted Balls
7 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
307' 431' 353' Wall 43' Ed Peavy — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA +2° · 62 ft Thai-Son Whoriskey — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA +8° · 70 ft Ricki Sears — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +19° · 195 ft Liam Lutmer — fielders_choice · EV 82 mph · LA -2° · 78 ft Barry McMichael — single · EV 87 mph · LA +13° · 133 ft Carter Okonkwo — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA +9° · 65 ft Ricki Sears — single · EV 79 mph · LA +22° · 175 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orioles
82% deserve-to-win  ·  2.7 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 3.7 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (+0.3 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Victor Sprague 92 / +31° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Doug Bannatyne 62 / +12° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Sidney Foust 76 / +15° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Lawrence Spoelstra 76 / +11° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Dylan Purchase 76 / +25° Pull Out 0.2 → 0 -0.15
Tigers
18% deserve-to-win  ·  1.3 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +2.7 vs expected
contact: 3.2 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-1.2 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ricki Sears 88 / +19° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Carter Okonkwo 73 / +9° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Ricki Sears 79 / +22° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Barry McMichael 87 / +13° Pull Single 0.6 → 1 +0.42
Liam Lutmer 82 / -2° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.32
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