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Padres 5, Red Sox 0                                          2026-06-18 · #826
at Saitch Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Boston                  0    0    3    2
San Diego               5    5    6    0

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Merrill     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Pfister     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Suazo       2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Falby       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Venegas     3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Harrell     rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Hack        c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cordano     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Alderma ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ospina      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Reyes   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Hodges  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Norton  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Chang   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   0   3   0   0   0   0   2   7   0   0  0.120
  CS: Harrell (8).
  E: Suazo (4), Alderman (2).
  GIDP: Hodges (2), Merrill (1).
  a-Singled for Cordano in the 4th.
  b-Batted for Ospina in the 8th.
  c-Ran in the 7th.
  d-Batted in the 4th.
  e-Batted in the 4th.

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Wilcox      p  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Batt        lf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
MacCracken  2b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Andrade     ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.333
Johnston    c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Manzano     3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Fernánd ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Atehortua   1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Najar       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Miranda     cf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Totals                  30   5   6   1   0   0   4   5   4   0   1  0.200
  2B: Batt (9).
  SB: Batt (1).
  CS: Najar (3).
  GIDP: Johnston (5).
  GITP: Fernández (1).
  a-Batted for Manzano in the 5th.

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ospina (L, 2-3) .....    10    7  26%    3    2    2    1    0    0   30    -
Solo ................    15   13  48%    3    2    2    3    1    0   62  2-1
Schellenger .........    10    7  26%    0    1    1    1    3    0   42  1-1

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wilcox (W, 9-1) .....    27   27 100%    3    0    0    2    7    0  100    -

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ospina (Outs 1-7) → Solo (Outs 8-20) → Schellenger (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Hack (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cordano (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Venegas (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Falby (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Pfister (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Harrell (Outs 1-27)

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Wilcox (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Johnston (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Manzano (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Batt (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Miranda (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Najar (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Padres (home) batted first; Red Sox batted second.
  First pitch 8:10 PM PT. Weather: 97°F · Wind out · Clear · Light rain. seed 474296.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 18.00
    27 outs left: 0.67
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 2.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 2 Jefry Manzano Ludlow MacCracken (2B) 0–1 —
B 7 Chet Batt Bertram Wilcox (3B) 0–2 —
B 7 Ludlow MacCracken Fernán Johnston (3B) 0–3 —
B 18 Haxzel Andrade Daylan Miranda (3B) 0–4 —
B 24 Israel Fernández Chet Batt (3B) 0–5 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 18.00
27 outs left 0.67
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 2.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Saitch Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 403' · RF 371' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Red Sox — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Pancho Pfister — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 109 ft Mark Harrell — single · EV 52 mph · LA +13° · 60 ft Vinicius Cordano — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 183 ft Robert Ospina — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 200 ft Bryce Alderman — single · EV 76 mph · LA +25° · 176 ft Chien-hao Chang — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 174 ft Michail Norton — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Henri Merrill — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +29° · 196 ft Jacob Hodges — double_play · EV 54 mph · LA -2° · 51 ft Pancho Pfister — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft Kervin Venegas — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 187 ft Jhonny Reyes — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -16° · 62 ft Henri Merrill — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -16° · 72 ft Jide Falby — ground_out · EV 55 mph · LA -9° · 52 ft Pancho Pfister — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +4° · 49 ft Kervin Venegas — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 129 ft Manuel Suazo — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +2° · 49 ft
Padres — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Bertram Wilcox — single · EV 78 mph · LA +20° · 154 ft Chet Batt — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +19° · 168 ft Ludlow MacCracken — single · EV 67 mph · LA +10° · 64 ft Jefry Manzano — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -8° · 73 ft Keshav Atehortua — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +17° · 143 ft Yoshimar Najar — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +12° · 92 ft Daylan Miranda — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft Haxzel Andrade — single · EV 92 mph · LA -13° · 87 ft Fernán Johnston — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 115 ft Israel Fernández — triple_play · EV 54 mph · LA +4° · 51 ft Bertram Wilcox — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +19° · 67 ft Chet Batt — double · EV 95 mph · LA +29° · 306 ft Jefry Manzano — infield_single · EV 54 mph · LA +7° · 51 ft Daylan Miranda — fielders_choice · EV 59 mph · LA +2° · 56 ft Yoshimar Najar — fly_out · EV 70 mph · LA +30° · 170 ft Haxzel Andrade — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -14° · 57 ft Israel Fernández — error · EV 76 mph · LA -22° · 72 ft Keshav Atehortua — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 185 ft Daylan Miranda — single · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 168 ft Ludlow MacCracken — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +17° · 156 ft Chet Batt — error · EV 57 mph · LA -9° · 54 ft Bertram Wilcox — fly_out · EV 68 mph · LA +31° · 165 ft Haxzel Andrade — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 184 ft Bertram Wilcox — error · EV 61 mph · LA -20° · 58 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Red Sox
3% deserve-to-win  ·  1.0 expected runs
actual 0 runs  ·  -1.0 vs expected
contact: 3.9 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Bryce Alderman 76 / +25° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Pancho Pfister 92 / +9° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Mark Harrell 52 / +13° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Kervin Venegas 76 / +17° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Pancho Pfister 76 / +0° Pull Out 0.3 → 0 -0.25
Padres
97% deserve-to-win  ·  6.0 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -1.0 vs expected
contact: 8.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-1.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Chet Batt 95 / +29° Pull Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Jefry Manzano 54 / +7° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Fernán Johnston 92 / +10° Oppo Double Play 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Ludlow MacCracken 67 / +10° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Haxzel Andrade 92 / -13° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
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