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Orcas 7, Beavers 6                                           2026-06-18 · #827
at The Oval
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                        1    R    H    E
Vancouver               7    7    5    0
Portland                6    6    7    0

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Irvin       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Noonan  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Godín       rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Badger      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Peavy       cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kudla       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Balotelli   2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Prince      lf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Valdivi pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Corona      3b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Whitley pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kiesewetter p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Alonso- pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Teeguar pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Millar  ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Roker       j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Turrentine  j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  17   7   5   1   0   1   7   4   5   0   0  0.294
  2B: Corona (2).
  HR: Roker (4), off Ghea.
  SB: Godín (2).
  CS: Turrentine (1).
  a-Grounded out for Irvin in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Prince in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Corona in the 2nd.
  d-Ran for Kiesewetter in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Valdivia in the 8th.
  f-Singled in the 5th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rabess      rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Vahaly      ss ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Schilli ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hydrick     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Tessema     2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Guerra      cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Pawsat      lf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Martín  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Harper      1b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.500
  c-Wolfe   pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Okey        3b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
Ghea        p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Clement ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Zamora  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Velazquez   j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Redmayne    j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Abate       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   6   7   4   0   0   6   6   9   0   1  0.259
  2B: Vahaly (10), Harper (5), Okey (1), Velazquez (2).
  SB: Okey (3).
  a-Grounded out for Vahaly in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Pawsat in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Harper in the 6th.
  d-Struck out for Martín in the 6th.
  e-Ran in the 9th.

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kiesewetter (W, 2-8)     21   16  59%    6    5    5    1    6    0   70    -
Peck ................    12   11  41%    1    1    1    5    3    0   52  1-0

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ghea (L, 2-3) .......    21   14  52%    5    7    7    4    5    1   71    -

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Kiesewetter (Outs 1-16) → Peck (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Irvin (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kudla (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Balotelli (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corona (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Badger (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Prince (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Godín (Outs 1-27)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-14)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ghea (Outs 1-14)
CATCHER (C)       | Hydrick (Outs 1-14)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Harper (Outs 1-14)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-14)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Okey (Outs 1-14)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-14)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Pawsat (Outs 1-14)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guerra (Outs 1-14)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Rabess (Outs 1-14)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted first; Orcas batted second.
  First pitch 5:45 PM PT. Weather: 73°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 798592.
  Powerplays: Orcas — Valdivia NF (O24)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 0.95
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 3 Yadier Guerra Francisco Vahaly (3B) 0–1 —
B 5 Rhyne Okey Quinn Pawsat (2B) 0–2 —
B 6 Kyle Rabess Rhyne Okey (3B) 0–3 —
B 15 Wilmer Velazquez Nicolas Martín (1B) 0–4 —
B 16 Gabriel Harper Wilmer Velazquez (2B) 0–5 —
B 25 Xzavier Wolfe Donis Zamora (3B) 0–6 —
T 5 Jeff Prince Omar Godín (3B) 1–6 0.82
T 5 Lautaro Corona Jeff Prince (1B) 2–6 0.68
T 12 Coen Turrentine Moisés Valdivia (3B) 3–6 0.80
T 12 John Millar Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles (3B) 4–6 0.60
T 12 John Millar Ivan Teeguarden (2B) 5–6 0.40
T 14 Earthna Roker John Millar (2B) 6–6 0.23
T 14 Earthna Roker Earthna Roker (HR) 7–6 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 0.95
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Orcas — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Andrea Peavy — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +17° · 218 ft Karim Balotelli — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +50° · 391 ft Stuart Irvin — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +38° · 388 ft Jeff Prince — single · EV 82 mph · LA -19° · 78 ft Lautaro Corona — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 199 ft Taylor Kiesewetter — single · EV 87 mph · LA +13° · 133 ft Earthna Roker — fly_out · EV 102 mph · LA +32° · 370 ft Berkeley Whitley — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +5° · 84 ft John Millar — single · EV 98 mph · LA +8° · 93 ft Earthna Roker — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +34° · 450 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 3 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Kyle Rabess — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Francisco Vahaly — double · EV 91 mph · LA +22° · 232 ft Yadier Guerra — single · EV 89 mph · LA +14° · 147 ft Quinn Pawsat — fielders_choice · EV 70 mph · LA -0° · 67 ft Rhyne Okey — double · EV 99 mph · LA +22° · 269 ft Bryce Ghea — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +41° · 294 ft Gabriel Harper — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +6° · 79 ft Wilmer Velazquez — double · EV 110 mph · LA +26° · 376 ft Seleshi Abate — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +10° · 144 ft Ludlow Schillig — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +11° · 108 ft Xzavier Wolfe — single · EV 87 mph · LA -8° · 83 ft Kyle Rabess — single · EV 80 mph · LA +23° · 188 ft Francisco Vahaly — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +36° · 327 ft Holcombe Hydrick — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA +2° · 66 ft Gabriel Harper — double · EV 94 mph · LA +13° · 149 ft Bryce Ghea — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +6° · 92 ft Kyle Rabess — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +4° · 84 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orcas
35% deserve-to-win  ·  6.8 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +0.2 vs expected
contact: 11.6 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-2.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Stuart Irvin 100 / +38° Center Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Earthna Roker 102 / +32° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Andrea Peavy 98 / +17° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Lautaro Corona 100 / +15° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Jeff Prince 82 / -19° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Beavers
65% deserve-to-win  ·  9.2 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -3.2 vs expected
contact: 12.3 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-1.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Seleshi Abate 101 / +10° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Gabriel Harper 94 / +13° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Francisco Vahaly 91 / +22° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Francisco Vahaly 93 / +36° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Rhyne Okey 99 / +22° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
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