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Padres 12, Giants 3                                          2026-06-20 · #849
at Saitch Coliseum
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                        1      2    R    H    E
San Francisco           3      0    3    9    0
San Diego              12      0   12   11    2

GIANTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Matos       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Caniza      p  ......    4   1   2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Kelley      ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Galloway    lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.333
Reyes       c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
McNeal      2b ......    4   1   3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.750
Hoffken     3b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Leininger   cf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Figuero pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Connelly    1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Braxton ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   3   9   1   1   0   2   2   9   0   0  0.290
  2B: Leininger (12).
  3B: Caniza (1).
  SB: Galloway (1), McNeal (6).
  CS: McNeal (2).
  HBP: Leininger (3).
  GIDP: Connelly (2), Braxton (4).
  a-Ran for Leininger in the 6th.
  b-Grounded out in the 5th.

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Wada        p  ......    5   2   4   1   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  0.800
Batt        ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Fernánd ph ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   4   1   0   0   0  0.500
Lavelle     rf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Atehortua   1b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Manzano     3b ......    3   3   2   0   0   1   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
Andrade     cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
MacCracken  2b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Miranda     c  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   1  0.500
Lettiere    lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Johnsto ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Pearman     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31  12  11   3   0   3  11   7   6   0   1  0.355
  2B: Wada (4), MacCracken (1), Miranda (5).
  HR: Wada (1), off Caniza; Manzano (1), off Caniza; Fernández (5), off Moore.
  SB: Manzano (2).
  E: Atehortua (2), MacCracken (2).
  a-Batted for Batt in the 7th.
  b-Walked in the 7th.

GIANTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Caniza ..............    19   17  63%    6    4    4    2    3    2   68    -
Moore (L, 3-5) ......     8    3  11%    3    6    5    2    2    1   35  1-1
Vaca ................     1    0   0%    0    0    0    1    0    0    5  1-0
Caicedo .............     8    7  26%    0    2    2    2    1    0   34  2-0

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wada (W, 7-5) .......    20   16  59%    6    2    2    1    7    0   91    -
Pendergrass (F, 22) .    13   11  41%    3    1    1    1    2    0   40  1-1

GIANTS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Caniza (Outs 1-17) → Moore (Outs 18-20) → Caicedo (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Reyes (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Connelly (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | McNeal (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Hoffken (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Kelley (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Galloway (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Leininger (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Matos (Outs 1-27)

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Wada (Outs 1-16) → Pendergrass (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Miranda (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Manzano (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Batt (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Lettiere (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Lavelle (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Padres (home) batted first; Giants batted second.
  Seconds: SFG o24 (3-12), SDP o26 (12-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 85°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 263598.
  Walk-Back runs: off Moore 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.44    Peak faced 6.00
    27 outs left: 1.44
    18 outs left: 2.17
     9 outs left: 3.33
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 0 Ichiya Wada Ichiya Wada (HR) 0–1 —
B 4 Jefry Manzano Jefry Manzano (HR) 0–2 —
B 16 Daylan Miranda Thomas Lavelle (3B) 0–3 —
B 16 Daylan Miranda Ichiya Wada (2B) 0–4 —
B 16 Ludlow MacCracken Daylan Miranda (2B) 0–5 —
B 19 Israel Fernández Ludlow MacCracken (3B) 0–6 —
B 19 Israel Fernández Jefry Manzano (2B) 0–7 —
B 19 Israel Fernández Keshav Atehortua (1B) 0–8 —
B 19 Israel Fernández Israel Fernández (HR) 0–9 —
B 19 Ichiya Wada Israel Fernández (3B) 0–10 —
B 25 Israel Fernández Haxzel Andrade (3B) 0–11 —
B 25 Ichiya Wada Jefry Manzano (3B) 0–12 —
T 10 Jhonny Reyes Rubilio Caniza (3B) 1–12 2.12
T 11 Alafia Kelley Orien Hoffken (3B) 2–12 2.06
T 16 Reuben Leininger Parker McNeal (3B) 3–12 2.73
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.44
Peak faced 6.00
27 outs left 1.44
18 outs left 2.17
9 outs left 3.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Saitch Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 403' · RF 371' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Giants — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Rubilio Caniza — triple · EV 104 mph · LA +16° · 229 ft Alafia Kelley — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +41° · 228 ft Brad Galloway — single · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 72 ft Parker McNeal — line_out · EV 66 mph · LA +17° · 100 ft Reuben Leininger — error · EV 81 mph · LA +20° · 171 ft Stefan Braxton — double_play · EV 72 mph · LA +1° · 68 ft Alexander Connelly — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Orien Hoffken — single · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Parker McNeal — single · EV 88 mph · LA +25° · 240 ft Jhonny Reyes — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 91 ft Rubilio Caniza — single · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 298 ft Reuben Leininger — double · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 197 ft Orien Hoffken — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -2° · 67 ft Parker McNeal — single · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 212 ft Jhonny Reyes — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA -14° · 58 ft Alafia Kelley — error · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 68 ft Rubilio Caniza — error · EV 77 mph · LA +18° · 138 ft Antolín Matos — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +14° · 167 ft Parker McNeal — single · EV 70 mph · LA +13° · 89 ft
Padres — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 3 HR
386' 403' 371' Ichiya Wada — hr · EV 99 mph · LA +35° · 365 ft Chet Batt — ground_out · EV 114 mph · LA +8° · 108 ft Jefry Manzano — hr · EV 115 mph · LA +48° · 480 ft Haxzel Andrade — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -8° · 84 ft Reed Lettiere — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -6° · 95 ft Daylan Miranda — double · EV 92 mph · LA +41° · 336 ft Israel Fernández — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +28° · 404 ft Ludlow MacCracken — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +11° · 112 ft Haxzel Andrade — line_out · EV 111 mph · LA -3° · 105 ft Keshav Atehortua — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -6° · 89 ft Thomas Lavelle — single · EV 108 mph · LA +3° · 102 ft Reed Lettiere — infield_single · EV 71 mph · LA -8° · 68 ft Daylan Miranda — fielders_choice · EV 83 mph · LA -25° · 79 ft Israel Fernández — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 114 ft Ludlow MacCracken — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 273 ft Ichiya Wada — single · EV 98 mph · LA -16° · 94 ft Jefry Manzano — fielders_choice · EV 87 mph · LA -13° · 83 ft Keshav Atehortua — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -3° · 79 ft Ichiya Wada — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -15° · 79 ft Ichiya Wada — double · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 232 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Giants
19% deserve-to-win  ·  6.0 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -3.0 vs expected
contact: 10.4 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+1.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rubilio Caniza 104 / +16° Oppo Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.61
Reuben Leininger 92 / +18° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Antolín Matos 96 / +14° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Orien Hoffken 76 / +1° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Reuben Leininger 81 / +20° Center Reached on Error 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Padres
81% deserve-to-win  ·  12.4 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 16.8 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 21.0 (+4.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ichiya Wada 99 / +35° Oppo Home Run 1.5 → 4 +2.55
Israel Fernández 111 / +28° Pull Home Run 2.2 → 4 +1.75
Ichiya Wada 92 / +22° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Daylan Miranda 92 / +41° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
Ludlow MacCracken 100 / +22° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
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