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Reds 9, Red Sox 8                                            2026-06-20 · #850
at North Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Cincinnati              9    9    7    0
Boston                  8    8    9    0

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gayton      lf ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Foxworth    p  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Subhash ph ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Dilworth    1b ......    3   1   2   0   1   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.667
Murakami    2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Corozo      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Minda       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Suarez  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Ribera      rf ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Goodwin ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Dawkins     ss ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  1.000
David       c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  d-Tsouban pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Warwick     j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Patrick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Taupaki     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   9   7   2   1   1   9   7  10   0   0  0.269
  2B: Goodwin (6), Dawkins (2).
  3B: Dilworth (2).
  HR: Ribera (2), off Maldonado.
  SB: Dilworth (7).
  CS: Subhash (3), Dilworth (5).
  a-Batted for Foxworth in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Minda in the 8th.
  c-Doubled for Ribera in the 8th.
  d-Ran in the 8th.

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suazo       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Rowley  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Merrill     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Kean    ph ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Venegas     cf ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Chang   ph ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Nytes       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Cordano ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Falby       1b ......    4   2   3   2   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.750
Harrell     rf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Alderman    3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Pope    pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Hack        c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Norton  ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Maldonado   p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Cameron pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  h-Tatum   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  i-Hodges  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  j-Echever pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Inniss      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32   8   9   3   0   0   8   4   8   0   0  0.281
  2B: Venegas (13), Falby 2 (11).
  SB: Falby (5), Pope (1).
  CS: Falby (6).
  a-Batted for Suazo in the 2nd.
  b-Batted for Merrill in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Venegas in the 3rd.
  d-Batted for Nytes in the 6th.
  e-Ran for Alderman in the 2nd.
  f-Batted for Hack in the 4th.
  g-Ran in the 3rd.
  h-Ran in the 5th.
  i-Ran for Cordano in the 5th.
  j-Ran for Cameron in the 6th.

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Foxworth (W, 12-7) ..    24   17  63%    6    6    6    3    6    0   70    -
Xargay ..............    12   10  37%    3    2    2    1    2    0   36  1-0

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Maldonado ...........    10    8  30%    2    3    2    3    3    1   37    -
Wittenberg ..........    14   13  48%    1    1    1    2    6    0   59  1-0
Campbell (L, 1-2) ...     4    2   7%    1    3    3    2    1    0    8  2-2
Annacone ............     3    1   4%    2    2    2    0    0    0   10  1-0

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Foxworth (Outs 1-17) → Xargay (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | David (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dilworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corozo (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Dawkins (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Minda (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ribera (Outs 1-27)

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-24)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Maldonado (Outs 1-8) → Wittenberg (Outs 9-21) → Campbell (Outs 22-23) → Annacone (Outs 24-24)
CATCHER (C)       | Hack (Outs 1-24)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Falby (Outs 1-24)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-24)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alderman (Outs 1-24)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nytes (Outs 1-24)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-24)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Venegas (Outs 1-24)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Harrell (Outs 1-24)

  Batting order: Red Sox (home) batted first; Reds batted second.
  First pitch 7:15 PM ET. Weather: 85°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 551067.
  Walk-Back runs: off Maldonado 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.00    Peak faced 2.50
    27 outs left: 1.00
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 1.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 3 Jide Falby Kervin Venegas (2B) 0–1 —
B 4 Bryce Alderman Jide Falby (3B) 0–2 —
B 8 Inman Nytes Ferdi Pope (3B) 0–3 —
B 9 Jide Falby Tony Cameron (2B) 0–4 —
B 13 Tony Cameron Jide Falby (3B) 0–5 —
B 16 Jide Falby Denis Echeverría (3B) 0–6 —
B 25 Vinicius Cordano Aleksandar Tatum (2B) 0–7 —
B 25 Chien-hao Chang Mark Harrell (2B) 0–8 —
T 5 Felix Ribera Thomas Gayton (1B) 1–8 1.09
T 5 Felix Ribera Felix Ribera (HR) 2–8 0.95
T 8 Henri Dawkins Felix Ribera (3B) 3–8 0.95
T 17 Zachary Subhash Travis Foxworth (2B) 4–8 1.50
T 21 Jaxson Goodwin Blaise Dilworth (3B) 5–8 2.00
T 21 Jaxson Goodwin Thomas Gayton (2B) 6–8 1.50
T 21 Jaxson Goodwin Carter Suarez (1B) 7–8 1.00
T 24 Zachary Subhash Ed Tsoubanos (2B) 8–8 1.00
T 24 Blaise Dilworth Zachary Subhash (2B) 9–8 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.00
Peak faced 2.50
27 outs left 1.00
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 1.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to North Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 356' · CF 454' · RF 319' · 14' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Reds — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Travis Foxworth — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 353 ft Matias Minda — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +53° · 246 ft Felix Ribera — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +38° · 480 ft Henri Dawkins — double · EV 119 mph · LA +39° · 480 ft Thomas Gayton — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft Shelby Warwick — line_out · EV 119 mph · LA +20° · 361 ft Zachary Subhash — single · EV 75 mph · LA -5° · 71 ft Jaxson Goodwin — double · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 255 ft Felix Ribera — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft Matias Minda — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA +6° · 94 ft Zachary Subhash — single · EV 100 mph · LA +3° · 95 ft Marco Corozo — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -19° · 84 ft Blaise Dilworth — triple · EV 108 mph · LA +17° · 261 ft
Red Sox — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 6 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Henri Merrill — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA +18° · 232 ft Kervin Venegas — double · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 285 ft Inman Nytes — fly_out · EV 113 mph · LA +28° · 421 ft Jide Falby — double · EV 98 mph · LA +18° · 233 ft Mark Harrell — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +2° · 84 ft Bryce Alderman — single · EV 96 mph · LA -1° · 91 ft Eliot Hack — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -10° · 78 ft Dexter Inniss — ground_out · EV 113 mph · LA +9° · 157 ft Ferdi Pope — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +4° · 84 ft Vinicius Cordano — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +0° · 75 ft Denis Echeverría — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA -15° · 95 ft Inman Nytes — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 244 ft Jide Falby — double · EV 116 mph · LA +23° · 390 ft Tony Cameron — single · EV 94 mph · LA -19° · 90 ft Michail Norton — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +46° · 400 ft Chien-hao Chang — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +17° · 175 ft Stanley Kean — single · EV 88 mph · LA -10° · 84 ft Vinicius Cordano — single · EV 88 mph · LA -7° · 84 ft Jide Falby — single · EV 100 mph · LA -3° · 95 ft Michail Norton — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -8° · 82 ft Chien-hao Chang — single · EV 88 mph · LA +4° · 84 ft Stanley Kean — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -11° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Reds
38% deserve-to-win  ·  9.1 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  -0.1 vs expected
contact: 16.0 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (-3.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Shelby Warwick 119 / +20° Oppo Out 1.7 → 0 -1.71
Henri Dawkins 119 / +39° Center Double 3.6 → 2 -1.64
Travis Foxworth 100 / +31° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Blaise Dilworth 108 / +17° Pull Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.28
Zachary Subhash 75 / -5° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Red Sox
62% deserve-to-win  ·  11.6 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  -3.6 vs expected
contact: 20.1 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (-8.1 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Inman Nytes 113 / +28° Oppo Out 2.9 → 0 -2.93
Michail Norton 100 / +46° Oppo Out 2.6 → 0 -2.59
Dexter Inniss 113 / +9° Oppo Out 1.5 → 0 -1.52
Inman Nytes 100 / +19° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Henri Merrill 99 / +18° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
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