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Expos 6, Cubs 5                                              2026-06-20 · #851
at Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Montreal                6    6    8    1
Chicago                 5    5    3    1

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Walsh       cf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Triguei pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
McKinney    ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Quinter pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Moreira     lf ......    2   1   1   0   0   1   4   1   0   0   0  0.500
Grizzlies   c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Creek       rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Huitema pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Geffrard    2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Deener  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Spence      1b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Rosales     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Mondevi pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Brown       p  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  f-Solórza ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Warner  ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Gibson      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Morales     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Currier     j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  27   6   8   4   0   1   6   4   7   0   0  0.296
  2B: Walsh (10), Grizzlies (22), Brown (2), Warner (7).
  HR: Moreira (17), off Sprengelmeyer.
  CS: Gibson (1), Moreira (10), Grizzlies (3).
  E: Morales (2).
  HBP: Rosales (2).
  a-Ran for Walsh in the 5th.
  b-Ran for McKinney in the 9th.
  c-Ran for Creek in the 5th.
  d-Struck out for Geffrard in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Rosales in the 6th.
  f-Struck out for Trigueiro in the 6th.
  g-Doubled for Currier in the 8th.

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Heinze      c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Segovia     rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Wambach pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
May         2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Myers       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Hollowe pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Lamas       cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Saprissa    3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Seol        lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Kurth   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1   .000
Lamas       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Palermo ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sprengelmey p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Mueller pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Santana ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Conn        j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Schellenger j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   5   3   0   0   0   5   6  14   0   1  0.111
  SB: Heinze (11), Mueller (8), Hollowell (7).
  E: Schellenger (2).
  GIDP: Conn (2).
  Squeeze: Kurth (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Segovia in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Myers in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Seol in the 5th.
  d-Batted for Lamas in the 5th.
  e-Ran for Sprengelmeyer in the 3rd.
  f-Batted for Schellenger in the 5th.

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Brown ...............     9    9   32  3.6    0    0    0    1    6    0    -
Zamora ..............    12    7   35  2.9    2    3    3    3    2    0  1-1
Drotar (W, 5-0) .....    11   11   36  3.3    0    2    2    2    6    0  2-1

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Sprengelmeye (L, 1-4)     22   17   64  2.9    5    5    5    3    3    1    -
Bruning .............    10    7   28  2.8    3    1    1    1    4    0    -

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Brown (Outs 1-9) → Zamora (Outs 10-16) → Drotar (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Spence (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Geffrard (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rosales (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | McKinney (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moreira (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Walsh (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Creek (Outs 1-27)

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-24)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Sprengelmeyer (Outs 1-17) → Bruning (Outs 18-24)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-24)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Lamas (Outs 1-24)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | May (Outs 1-24)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saprissa (Outs 1-24)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Myers (Outs 1-24)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Seol (Outs 1-24)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Lamas (Outs 1-24)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-24)

  Batting order: Cubs (home) batted first; Expos batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 61°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 522770.
  Powerplays: Expos — Quinteros NF (O13)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 1.50
    27 outs left: 0.67
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 12 Ryan Schellenger Michael Mueller (3B) 0–1 —
B 16 Teófilo Segovia Maurice Hollowell (3B) 0–2 —
B 16 Teófilo Segovia Davion Kurth (2B) 0–3 —
B 20 Ivan Saprissa Tomas Heinze (3B) 0–4 —
B 20 Davion Kurth Kendrick Wambach (3B) 0–5 —
T 12 Elliott Currier Raymond Trigueiro (2B) 1–5 1.00
T 17 Ozziel Moreira Jenson Huitema (3B) 2–5 1.20
T 17 Ozziel Moreira Roscoe Spence (2B) 3–5 0.90
T 17 Ozziel Moreira Franklin Mondeville (1B) 4–5 0.60
T 17 Ozziel Moreira Ozziel Moreira (HR) 5–5 0.30
T 24 Michael Brown Augusto Quinteros (1B) 6–5 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 1.50
27 outs left 0.67
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 311' · CF 428' · RF 340' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Crescent Grandstand
Expos — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 3 1B · 4 XBH · 1 HR
311' 428' 340' Maciek Grizzlies — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 293 ft Fran Creek — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Quincy Geffrard — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +4° · 93 ft Roscoe Spence — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -13° · 73 ft Ronald Rosales — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +37° · 326 ft Scoville McKinney — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA +8° · 108 ft Ozziel Moreira — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +13° · 159 ft Elliott Currier — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 129 ft Pedro Morales — single · EV 80 mph · LA +19° · 158 ft Curt Gibson — error · EV 78 mph · LA +14° · 117 ft Carson Warner — double · EV 93 mph · LA +17° · 195 ft Nathan Walsh — double · EV 92 mph · LA +44° · 338 ft Quincy Geffrard — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 181 ft Roscoe Spence — single · EV 60 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Scoville McKinney — line_out · EV 56 mph · LA +20° · 80 ft Michael Brown — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +18° · 155 ft Ozziel Moreira — hr · EV 95 mph · LA +42° · 356 ft Maciek Grizzlies — double · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 240 ft Roscoe Spence — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +12° · 126 ft Michael Brown — double · EV 86 mph · LA +40° · 290 ft
Cubs — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
311' 428' 340' Floyd Myers — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA -19° · 85 ft Ryan Schellenger — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +37° · 243 ft Jaume Santana — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +46° · 293 ft Harold Palermo — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -1° · 68 ft Tomas Heinze — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -4° · 73 ft Teófilo Segovia — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA -16° · 53 ft Erick May — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Ivan Saprissa — infield_single · EV 70 mph · LA +2° · 66 ft Harold Palermo — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Wyatt Conn — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -6° · 72 ft Teófilo Segovia — single · EV 85 mph · LA +12° · 119 ft Ivan Saprissa — error · EV 93 mph · LA -6° · 89 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Expos
78% deserve-to-win  ·  7.2 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -1.2 vs expected
contact: 13.1 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+1.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 3 CS (-2.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ozziel Moreira 95 / +42° Pull Home Run 1.2 → 4 +2.83
Michael Brown 86 / +40° Center Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Maciek Grizzlies 92 / +22° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Carson Warner 93 / +17° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Scoville McKinney 97 / +8° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.09
Cubs
22% deserve-to-win  ·  3.8 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +1.2 vs expected
contact: 3.5 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-1.5 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ivan Saprissa 70 / +2° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Jaume Santana 86 / +46° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.67
Teófilo Segovia 85 / +12° Pull Single 0.6 → 1 +0.42
Ivan Saprissa 93 / -6° Pull Reached on Error 0.4 → 0 -0.39
Floyd Myers 89 / -19° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.37
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