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Expos 6, Cubs 5                                              2026-06-21 · #855
at Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Montreal                6    6    4    0
Chicago                 5    5    5    0

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Grizzlies   c  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Walsh       cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Moreira     lf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Solórzano   rf ......    2   2   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Geffrard    3b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Spence      2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1   .000
Dienelt     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rosales     ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Chará       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  10   6   4   3   0   0   6   3   1   0   1  0.400
  2B: Grizzlies (23), Solórzano (9), Geffrard (10).


CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Heinze      c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Nealon  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Segovia     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
May         3b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  1.000
Myers       ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Santana pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Coto        cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   .000
  c-Palermo pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Lamas       2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Seol        lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Lamas   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Mueller     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Kurth   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Campaz      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Sapriss ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   1  0.000
  g-Hollowe pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  h-Wambach pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Conn        j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Schellenger j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  24   5   5   0   0   0   5   6   7   0   2  0.208
  SB: May (7), Santana 2 (7).
  CS: May (6), Lamas (9), Palermo (3).
  HBP: Palermo (2).
  GIDP: Segovia (5).
  a-Singled for Heinze in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Myers in the 6th.
  c-Ran for Coto in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Seol in the 3rd.
  e-Batted for Mueller in the 4th.
  f-Grounded out for Campaz in the 6th.
  g-Ran for Lamas in the 5th.
  h-Ran for Nealon in the 7th.

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Chará (W, 1-0) ......    15   15   57  3.8    3    0    0    2    3    0    -
Matthews ............    11    7   36  3.3    2    3    3    4    2    0  1-0
Cabalceta ...........     5    5   17  3.4    0    2    2    0    2    0  3-2

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Campaz ..............    11    6   36  3.3    3    5    5    3    1    0    -
Schnugg (L, 3-7) ....     2    1    5  2.5    1    1    1    0    0    0  1-1

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Chará (Outs 1-15) → Matthews (Outs 16-22) → Cabalceta (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dienelt (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Spence (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Geffrard (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Rosales (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moreira (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Walsh (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Solórzano (Outs 1-27)

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-7)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Campaz (Outs 1-6) → Schnugg (Outs 7-7)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-7)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mueller (Outs 1-7)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Lamas (Outs 1-7)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | May (Outs 1-7)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Myers (Outs 1-7)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Seol (Outs 1-7)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Coto (Outs 1-7)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-7)

  Batting order: Cubs (home) batted first; Expos batted second.
  First pitch 1:35 PM CT. Weather: 85°F · Wind cross · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 397186.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 0.72
    27 outs left: 0.67
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 17 Phillip Nealon Jaume Santana (3B) 0–1 —
B 17 Ivan Saprissa Erick May (3B) 0–2 —
B 22 Erick May Maurice Hollowell (3B) 0–3 —
B 24 Ivan Saprissa Harold Palermo (3B) 0–4 —
B 25 Ryan Schellenger Jaume Santana (2B) 0–5 —
T 2 Roscoe Spence Rónald Solórzano (3B) 1–5 0.60
T 6 Rónald Solórzano Nathan Walsh (3B) 2–5 0.57
T 6 Rónald Solórzano Quincy Geffrard (2B) 3–5 0.43
T 6 Maciek Grizzlies Ozziel Moreira (2B) 4–5 0.29
T 6 Maciek Grizzlies Rónald Solórzano (1B) 5–5 0.14
T 7 Quincy Geffrard Maciek Grizzlies (3B) 6–5 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 0.72
27 outs left 0.67
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 311' · CF 428' · RF 340' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Crescent Grandstand
Expos — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 1 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
311' 428' 340' Ozziel Moreira — fly_out · EV 112 mph · LA +19° · 314 ft Rónald Solórzano — double · EV 119 mph · LA +23° · 409 ft Maciek Grizzlies — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -8° · 88 ft Cameron Dienelt — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +19° · 190 ft Douglas Chará — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +14° · 129 ft Nathan Walsh — ground_out · EV 105 mph · LA +6° · 99 ft Quincy Geffrard — double · EV 94 mph · LA +18° · 204 ft Rónald Solórzano — single · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 248 ft Maciek Grizzlies — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 160 ft
Cubs — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
311' 428' 340' Tomas Heinze — single · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Teófilo Segovia — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 87 ft Erick May — single · EV 86 mph · LA +8° · 82 ft Mikel Lamas — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +11° · 125 ft Yong-soo Seol — single · EV 81 mph · LA +8° · 77 ft Michael Mueller — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +46° · 338 ft Isaiah Campaz — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA +19° · 199 ft Ryan Schellenger — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -8° · 80 ft Phillip Nealon — single · EV 66 mph · LA +20° · 111 ft Ivan Saprissa — fly_out · EV 91 mph · LA +41° · 326 ft Isaiah Campaz — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +3° · 82 ft Mikel Lamas — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +31° · 244 ft Floyd Myers — single · EV 79 mph · LA +20° · 161 ft Wyatt Conn — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 188 ft Ryan Schellenger — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -8° · 49 ft Mikel Lamas — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 200 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Expos
59% deserve-to-win  ·  7.4 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -1.4 vs expected
contact: 8.8 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-1.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ozziel Moreira 112 / +19° Pull Out 1.7 → 0 -1.71
Quincy Geffrard 94 / +18° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Maciek Grizzlies 100 / +12° Oppo Double 1.1 → 2 +0.91
Cameron Dienelt 88 / +19° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Nathan Walsh 105 / +6° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
Cubs
41% deserve-to-win  ·  6.1 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -1.1 vs expected
contact: 8.0 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-3.0 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 3 CS (-0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Michael Mueller 92 / +46° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Ivan Saprissa 91 / +41° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Isaiah Campaz 91 / +19° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Mikel Lamas 90 / +11° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Tomas Heinze 76 / +6° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
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