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Red Sox 9, Reds 5                                            2026-06-21 · #856
at North Ground
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Cincinnati              5      0    5    8    0
Boston                  9      -    9    8    0

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
David       c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   3   1   0  0.250
Tsoubanos   lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Dilworth    1b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Núñez       2b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Minda       cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Ribera      rf ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
  a-Gayton  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Murakami    3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Dawkins     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Agnew       p  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Subhash ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Warwick     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0  1.000
Patrick     j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Taupaki     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   5   8   1   0   0   3   4  12   2   0  0.267
  2B: Ribera (8).
  SB: Subhash (3).
  CS: Murakami (8).
  HBP: Murakami (3), Agnew (2).
  a-Ran for Ribera in the 8th.
  b-Singled for Agnew in the 8th.

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suazo       2b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Merrill     lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Venegas     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Nytes       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Falby       1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Harrell     rf ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Alderman    3b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Rowley  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Saravia     c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Pope    pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mbakwe      p  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Cordano ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Echever pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Hodges  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Inniss      j  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Malard      j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Strachan    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   9   8   5   0   0   9   4  13   0   0  0.258
  2B: Suazo (16), Inniss (11), Harrell (3), Alderman (4), Mbakwe (1).
  a-Batted for Alderman in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Saravia in the 2nd.
  c-Batted in the 8th.
  d-Ran in the 6th.
  e-Ran in the 8th.

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Agnew (L, 6-10) .....    14    7  26%    6    6    6    2    5    0   45    -
Berg ................    16   14  52%    2    3    3    2    7    0   69  2-0
Zamora ..............     4    4  15%    0    0    0    0    1    0   19  1-0

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Mbakwe ..............     9    4  15%    3    2    2    2    1    0   36    -
Lucena (W, 1-1) .....    15   15  56%    2    2    2    0    7    0   57  2-1
Lateef ..............    11    8  30%    2    1    1    2    4    0   42  1-1

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-25)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Agnew (Outs 1-7) → Berg (Outs 8-21) → Zamora (Outs 22-25)
CATCHER (C)       | David (Outs 1-25)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dilworth (Outs 1-25)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-25)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-25)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Dawkins (Outs 1-25)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-25)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Minda (Outs 1-25)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ribera (Outs 1-25)

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Mbakwe (Outs 1-4) → Lucena (Outs 5-19) → Lateef (Outs 20-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Falby (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alderman (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nytes (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Venegas (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Harrell (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Red Sox (home) batted second; Reds batted first.
  Seconds: CIN o25 (5-0), BOS o25 (9-5).
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 81°F · Wind cross · Clear · Heavy rain. seed 117230.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 2 Felix Ribera Blaise Dilworth (3B) 1–0
T 2 Felix Ribera Matias Minda (1B) 2–0
T 4 Bret David Orlando Núñez (3B) 3–0
T 10 Matias Minda Colton Agnew (3B) 4–0
T 23 Zachary Subhash Adam Patrick (3B) 5–0
B 4 Mark Harrell Manuel Suazo (3B) 5–1
B 4 Bryce Alderman Mark Harrell (2B) 5–2
B 4 Diego Saravia Bryce Alderman (2B) 5–3
B 5 Sekou Mbakwe Sekou Mbakwe (1B) 5–4
B 7 Jide Falby Denis Echeverría (3B) 5–5
B 7 Jide Falby Ferdi Pope (2B) 5–6
B 20 Henri Merrill Jacob Hodges (2B) 5–7
B 20 Dexter Inniss Ivo Malard (2B) 5–8
B 20 Dexter Inniss Henri Merrill (1B) 5–9
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to North Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 356' · CF 454' · RF 319' · 14' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Reds — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 6 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Ed Tsoubanos — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 191 ft Blaise Dilworth — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 131 ft Felix Ribera — double · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 126 ft Shelby Warwick — single · EV 67 mph · LA +15° · 90 ft Orlando Núñez — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +6° · 49 ft Norris Taupaki — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +3° · 87 ft Zachary Subhash — single · EV 54 mph · LA +24° · 86 ft Thomas Gayton — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Bret David — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 88 ft Blaise Dilworth — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 204 ft Adam Patrick — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +46° · 232 ft Matias Minda — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 170 ft Orlando Núñez — ground_out · EV 55 mph · LA -3° · 52 ft Bret David — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 313 ft Blaise Dilworth — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Felix Ribera — single · EV 56 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Matias Minda — single · EV 60 mph · LA +22° · 100 ft
Red Sox — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 3 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Manuel Suazo — double · EV 100 mph · LA +38° · 387 ft Henri Merrill — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +32° · 253 ft Mark Harrell — double · EV 96 mph · LA +19° · 224 ft Bryce Alderman — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 236 ft Diego Saravia — single · EV 95 mph · LA +17° · 207 ft Denis Echeverría — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -4° · 95 ft Bernard Strachan — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +26° · 260 ft Dexter Inniss — double · EV 100 mph · LA +39° · 390 ft Jacob Hodges — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -15° · 84 ft Sekou Mbakwe — double · EV 109 mph · LA +22° · 332 ft Jide Falby — single · EV 91 mph · LA +19° · 201 ft Inman Nytes — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -8° · 81 ft Denis Echeverría — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +16° · 163 ft Jide Falby — line_out · EV 97 mph · LA +25° · 289 ft Henri Merrill — single · EV 95 mph · LA -5° · 91 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Reds
38% deserve-to-win  ·  6.1 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -1.1 vs expected
contact: 7.9 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+0.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Felix Ribera 92 / +11° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.17
Bret David 92 / +34° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.92
Ed Tsoubanos 92 / +17° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Blaise Dilworth 92 / +18° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Shelby Warwick 67 / +15° Oppo Stay 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Red Sox
62% deserve-to-win  ·  7.7 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +1.3 vs expected
contact: 14.7 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (-1.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jide Falby 97 / +25° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.08
Denis Echeverría 88 / +16° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Mark Harrell 96 / +19° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.76
Bernard Strachan 90 / +26° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Bryce Alderman 100 / +18° Center Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
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