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Reds 10, Brewers 9                                           2026-06-25 · #894
at Pino Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Milwaukee               9    9   11    0
Cincinnati             10   10    8    0

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Edwards     lf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Irving  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Espinoza    3b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Prather     c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Bangoura    rf ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Yani        cf ......    2   3   2   1   0   0   2   2   0   0   0  1.000
Trejo       2b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Sakurai     1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Saravia     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ebun        p  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Ayers       j  ......    1   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   1   0  2.000
Eggleston   j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  32   9  11   4   0   1   9   3   5   1   0  0.344
  2B: Bangoura (16), Yani (12), Ebun (4), Ayers (6).
  HR: Eggleston (1), off Kirks.
  GIDP: Saravia (2).
  GITP: Trejo (1).
  a-Batted for Edwards in the 5th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gayton      cf ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Núñez       2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Cox     pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Subhash     ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
Ribera      rf ......    4   1   3   0   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.750
Agnew       p  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Murakami    3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Dilworth    1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Tsoubanos   lf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
David       c  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Dawkins pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Villalo ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
  d-Goodwin pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Lyman   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Warwick     j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Patrick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  23  10   8   1   0   0   9   8   6   0   1  0.348
  2B: David (3).
  CS: Murakami (10).
  HBP: Tsoubanos (2).
  a-Ran for Núñez in the 5th.
  b-Ran for David in the 5th.
  c-Pinch-hit in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Cox in the 6th.
  e-Ran in the 8th.

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ebun ................    27   17  63%    7    8    1    7    5    0   95    -
Lonigro (L, 0-1) ....     5    4  15%    1    2    2    1    1    0   16  2-1

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Agnew (W, 7-10) .....    23   16  59%    8    6    6    2    1    0   85    -
Kirks ...............    12   11  41%    3    3    3    1    4    1   35  1-1

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-21)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ebun (Outs 1-17) → Lonigro (Outs 18-21)
CATCHER (C)       | Prather (Outs 1-21)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Sakurai (Outs 1-21)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Trejo (Outs 1-21)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Espinoza (Outs 1-21)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-21)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Edwards (Outs 1-21)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Yani (Outs 1-21)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bangoura (Outs 1-21)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Agnew (Outs 1-16) → Kirks (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | David (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dilworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ribera (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted second; Brewers batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 79°F · Wind cross · Clear · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 172062.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 8 Frank Ebun Graydon Yani (2B) 1–0
T 9 Takuto Sakurai Frank Ebun (2B) 2–0
T 10 Graydon Yani Francis Trejo (1B) 3–0
T 16 Terry Ayers Graydon Yani (3B) 4–0
T 16 Terry Ayers Daniel Edwards (2B) 5–0
T 16 Johan Bangoura Terry Ayers (1B) 6–0
T 16 Graydon Yani Johan Bangoura (2B) 7–0
T 18 Donni Eggleston Graydon Yani (2B) 8–0
T 18 Donni Eggleston Donni Eggleston (HR) 9–0
B 1 Emmanuel Murakami Colton Agnew (2B) 9–1
B 11 Felix Ribera Emmanuel Murakami (2B) 9–2
B 13 Bret David Thomas Gayton (2B) 9–3
B 13 Bret David Felix Ribera (1B) 9–4
B 13 Blaise Dilworth Agustin Cox (3B) 9–5
B 17 Orlando Núñez Ed Tsoubanos (2B) 9–6
B 17 Shelby Warwick Thomas Gayton (3B) 9–7
B 17 Shelby Warwick Jaxson Goodwin (2B) 9–8
B 21 Felix Ribera Carr Lyman (3B) 9–9
B 21 Felix Ribera Shelby Warwick (2B) 9–10
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Brewers — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 6 1B · 4 XBH · 1 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Andres Espinoza — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +18° · 177 ft Johan Bangoura — single · EV 82 mph · LA +8° · 77 ft Francis Trejo — fielders_choice · EV 69 mph · LA +5° · 65 ft Takuto Sakurai — fly_out · EV 99 mph · LA +43° · 394 ft Sergio Saravia — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA -5° · 57 ft Frank Ebun — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +36° · 242 ft Graydon Yani — double · EV 104 mph · LA +21° · 288 ft Clifford Irving — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +16° · 194 ft Terry Ayers — double · EV 98 mph · LA +38° · 376 ft Donni Eggleston — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +37° · 465 ft Terry Ayers — single · EV 80 mph · LA +24° · 187 ft Frank Ebun — double · EV 105 mph · LA +26° · 353 ft Sergio Saravia — line_out · EV 65 mph · LA +11° · 63 ft Takuto Sakurai — single · EV 85 mph · LA +8° · 81 ft Francis Trejo — single · EV 108 mph · LA -6° · 103 ft Cannon Prather — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -8° · 77 ft Andres Espinoza — line_out · EV 64 mph · LA +11° · 63 ft Graydon Yani — single · EV 84 mph · LA +4° · 80 ft Johan Bangoura — double · EV 94 mph · LA +30° · 309 ft Francis Trejo — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA -18° · 85 ft Frank Ebun — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -17° · 70 ft Andres Espinoza — single · EV 90 mph · LA -6° · 85 ft Francis Trejo — triple_play · EV 70 mph · LA -30° · 67 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 7 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Emmanuel Murakami — single · EV 100 mph · LA +1° · 95 ft Thomas Gayton — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -16° · 74 ft Felix Ribera — single · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Blaise Dilworth — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +8° · 95 ft Ed Tsoubanos — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +24° · 191 ft Zachary Subhash — single · EV 79 mph · LA -3° · 75 ft Shelby Warwick — single · EV 109 mph · LA +10° · 160 ft Henri Dawkins — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 151 ft Orlando Núñez — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +47° · 377 ft Thomas Gayton — fielders_choice · EV 72 mph · LA +5° · 68 ft Felix Ribera — single · EV 86 mph · LA +2° · 81 ft Ed Tsoubanos — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +16° · 165 ft Bret David — double · EV 108 mph · LA +31° · 410 ft Felix Ribera — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +40° · 333 ft Orlando Núñez — single · EV 86 mph · LA +22° · 207 ft Felix Ribera — single · EV 91 mph · LA +23° · 241 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brewers
38% deserve-to-win  ·  8.9 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +0.1 vs expected
contact: 17.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 17.0 (-0.9 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Takuto Sakurai 99 / +43° Pull Out 2.0 → 0 -1.98
Johan Bangoura 94 / +30° Oppo Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Clifford Irving 95 / +16° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.24
Johan Bangoura 82 / +8° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Takuto Sakurai 85 / +8° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Reds
62% deserve-to-win  ·  11.4 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  -1.4 vs expected
contact: 13.1 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-4.1 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Orlando Núñez 97 / +47° Pull Out 2.0 → 0 -1.98
Henri Dawkins 100 / +11° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.25
Felix Ribera 92 / +40° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.92
Zachary Subhash 79 / -3° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Felix Ribera 86 / +2° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
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