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Orioles 7, Beavers 3                                         2026-06-25 · #896
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Portland                3    3    4    0
Baltimore               7    7    8    0

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Moulton     p  ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Vahaly  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Wolfe       3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Harper      2b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0   0  0.000
Villarreal  ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Clement     lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hydrick     c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Schillig    rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Holzworth   1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Okey    pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Streko      cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Martín  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Guerra  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   3   4   1   0   0   3   7  11   0   0  0.160
  2B: Moulton (1).
  SB: Wolfe (11), Clement (8), Streko (1).
  CS: Vahaly (10), Okey (2).
  GIDP: Guerra (7).
  a-Ran for Moulton in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Holzworth in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Streko in the 3rd.
  d-Ran in the 6th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Dennis      p  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Michulk pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Foust       3b ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
Melch       cf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Kagame      c  ......    3   1   1   0   1   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
  b-Samudio pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Mills       ss ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Flowers     lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Ison        2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Kautz   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Alison      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Purchase    rf ......    3   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
  d-López   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Maciejc ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Lichnov ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Adams       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  29   7   8   2   1   1   7   5  12   0   0  0.276
  2B: Dennis (2), Foust (10).
  3B: Kagame (1).
  HR: Purchase (1), off Moulton.
  SB: Michulka (4), Adams (3).
  a-Ran for Dennis in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Kagame in the 9th.
  c-Grounded out for Ison in the 7th.
  d-Ran for López in the 6th.
  e-Struck out in the 7th.
  f-Grounded out for Michulka in the 8th.

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Moulton (L, 2-3) ....    31   25  93%    6    6    5    4   12    1   93    -
Dillard .............     3    2   7%    2    1    1    1    0    0    7  1-1

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Dennis (W, 8-2) .....    32   27 100%    4    3    3    7   11    0  117    -

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Moulton (Outs 1-25) → Dillard (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Hydrick (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Harper (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Wolfe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Villarreal (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Clement (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Streko (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Schillig (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Dennis (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Kagame (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ison (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Foust (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Mills (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Flowers (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Melch (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Purchase (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted first; Beavers batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 96°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 145132.
  Powerplays: Beavers — Guerra NF (O8)
  Walk-Back runs: off Moulton 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 2 Junior Kagame Andre Melch (1B) 0–1
B 2 Dan Mills Junior Kagame (3B) 0–2
B 7 Dylan Purchase Dylan Purchase (HR) 0–3
B 13 Sidney Foust Dylan Purchase (3B) 0–4
B 13 Brett Dennis Sidney Foust (1B) 0–5
B 22 Nicolas Lichnovsky Geoff Michulka (3B) 0–6
B 25 Dan Mills Sidney Foust (2B) 0–7
T 7 Derek Moulton Nicolas Martín (3B) 1–7
T 19 Yadier Guerra Yadier Guerra (3B) 2–7
T 26 Ludlow Schillig Gabriel Harper (2B) 3–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Beavers — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Val Clement — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -3° · 89 ft Beals Villarreal — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +15° · 118 ft Derek Moulton — double · EV 92 mph · LA +50° · 334 ft Gabriel Harper — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +48° · 254 ft Yadier Guerra — double_play · EV 93 mph · LA -6° · 88 ft Derek Moulton — single · EV 84 mph · LA +14° · 138 ft Aaron Holzworth — single · EV 106 mph · LA +35° · 426 ft Holcombe Hydrick — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +44° · 253 ft Val Clement — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +24° · 216 ft Xzavier Wolfe — single · EV 80 mph · LA +22° · 179 ft Ludlow Schillig — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 350 ft Holcombe Hydrick — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 271 ft Val Clement — fielders_choice · EV 82 mph · LA +2° · 78 ft Ludlow Schillig — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 123 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
357' 498' 341' Sidney Foust — double · EV 94 mph · LA +21° · 239 ft Andre Melch — single · EV 88 mph · LA +22° · 214 ft Junior Kagame — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 284 ft Dan Mills — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -17° · 83 ft Korey Flowers — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -7° · 73 ft Rill Kautz — fly_out · EV 109 mph · LA +42° · 473 ft Nicolas Lichnovsky — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +4° · 75 ft Dylan Purchase — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +27° · 452 ft Sidney Foust — single · EV 93 mph · LA +0° · 88 ft Brett Dennis — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 282 ft Sidney Foust — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -18° · 92 ft Andre Melch — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +5° · 84 ft Dan Mills — single · EV 100 mph · LA -5° · 95 ft Korey Flowers — single · EV 98 mph · LA -22° · 93 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Beavers
42% deserve-to-win  ·  7.5 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -4.5 vs expected
contact: 9.6 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-4.6 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 2 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Aaron Holzworth 106 / +35° Oppo Single 3.0 → 1 -1.95
Derek Moulton 92 / +50° Pull Double 0.5 → 2 +1.46
Ludlow Schillig 100 / +31° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.08
Holcombe Hydrick 92 / +27° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Val Clement 86 / +24° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.63
Orioles
58% deserve-to-win  ·  8.8 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -1.8 vs expected
contact: 14.2 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+0.8 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+1.0 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rill Kautz 109 / +42° Center Out 3.6 → 0 -3.61
Junior Kagame 100 / +23° Pull Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.58
Sidney Foust 94 / +21° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Dylan Purchase 118 / +27° Pull Home Run 3.0 → 4 +1.04
Sidney Foust 93 / +0° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
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