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Canaries 3, Marlins 2                                        2026-06-25 · #897
at Deifel Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
New Jersey              3    3    4    0
Miami                   2    2    3    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Carmona     cf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Braun       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cordero     c  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Fishbach    rf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Lacava      3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                   5   3   4   2   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.800
  2B: Carmona (11), Cordero (27).
  SB: Cordero (6).
  HBP: Kramer (3).


MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Yanagi      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Beasley pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Enterline   rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Narazaki    2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Vildoza     ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Suggs       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Trevino     1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Ashley      c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Mangin      lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Enquist     cf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Burns       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Worthington j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   2   3   1   0   0   1   5  13   0   0  0.111
  2B: Enquist (13).
  CS: Beasley (4).
  GIDP: Enquist 2 (11).
  a-Ran for Yanagi in the 5th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Bramblett (W, 6-0) ..    31   26  122  3.9    3    2    2    5   12    0    -
Huggins .............     1    1    5  5.0    0    0    0    0    1    0  3-0

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Yanagi (L, 1-11) ....     6    1   20  3.3    4    3    3    0    0    0    -

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bramblett (Outs 1-26) → Huggins (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Braun (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | —
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | —
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Carmona (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-1)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Yanagi (Outs 1-1)
CATCHER (C)       | Ashley (Outs 1-1)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Trevino (Outs 1-1)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Narazaki (Outs 1-1)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Suggs (Outs 1-1)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vildoza (Outs 1-1)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mangin (Outs 1-1)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-1)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-1)

  Batting order: Marlins (home) batted first; Canaries batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 91°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 342191.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.33    Peak faced 0.35
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 19 Norm Ashley Alexander Beasley (3B) 0–1 —
B 26 Jason Enquist Máximo Vildoza (3B) 0–2 —
T 1 Grant Cordero Andrea Kramer (1B) 1–2 0.23
T 1 Deylin Fishbach Grant Cordero (3B) 2–2 0.12
T 1 Boris Carmona Deylin Fishbach (3B) 3–2 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.33
Peak faced 0.35
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Deifel Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 276' · CF 455' · RF 303' · 50' wall). Bathtub.
Canaries — Batted Balls
5 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Gianluca Braun — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 354 ft Grant Cordero — double · EV 117 mph · LA +14° · 250 ft Deylin Fishbach — single · EV 88 mph · LA +22° · 218 ft Roberto Lacava — single · EV 94 mph · LA +24° · 262 ft Boris Carmona — double · EV 97 mph · LA +14° · 182 ft
Marlins — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Shota Yanagi — single · EV 77 mph · LA +17° · 135 ft Wallace Enterline — single · EV 79 mph · LA -8° · 75 ft Keishiro Narazaki — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 287 ft Norm Ashley — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA +1° · 58 ft Jason Enquist — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Don Burns — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +31° · 239 ft Máximo Vildoza — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 184 ft Wallace Enterline — line_out · EV 63 mph · LA +19° · 100 ft Jason Enquist — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Keishiro Narazaki — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +49° · 336 ft Wallace Enterline — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -5° · 83 ft Jason Enquist — double · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 313 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
74% deserve-to-win  ·  4.0 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -1.0 vs expected
contact: 5.3 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+0.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Gianluca Braun 100 / +32° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Boris Carmona 97 / +14° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.91
Grant Cordero 117 / +14° Center Double 1.5 → 2 +0.48
Roberto Lacava 94 / +24° Pull Single 0.7 → 1 +0.26
Deylin Fishbach 88 / +22° Center Single 0.9 → 1 +0.10
Marlins
26% deserve-to-win  ·  2.4 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 4.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-0.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jason Enquist 92 / +34° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Wallace Enterline 79 / -8° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Keishiro Narazaki 92 / +29° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Keishiro Narazaki 92 / +49° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.53
Shota Yanagi 77 / +17° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
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